For a while, the threat of Guac Ocalypse loomed on America. If President Donald Trump proposed tariffs in Mexico and Canada, avocado and tomato prices would have skyrocketed with his approach to Super Bowl Sunday. Trump may be bluffing about his willingness to launch a trade war, but the bounty period he negotiated with those countries lasts only 30 days. Yesterday he said he would announce tariffs in more countries – he didn’t identify which one –next week. Soon, the Americans were able to clench our guacamole again.
If the tariffs that Trump threatened come into effect, they will quickly raise prices not only for avocados, but also for strawberries, cucumbers, peppers, oranges, countless processed foods and other grocery staples. The pain that tariffs cause for American consumers is Trump’s view, and although he was in the social vibrancy of truth, only a temporary uplift into the “golden age of America.” Implicitly to that idea, and the reality of the actual trade war, is the assumption that the United States can make up for lost imports by itself. Trump’s attitude towards agriculture is the same as his attitude towards everything else. “The first in America.”
The concept that a country can produce all food within it is admirable. The American Fast Food System promotes seasonal and local diets, supporting more smallholder farmers in the process. But that’s not the way most people eat now. Eating America first will limit the diversity shoppers have come to expect. It is impossible to eat fresh blueberries all year round. Apart from all agriculture overhauls in the United States, it also means unhealthy diets. Guac-ocalypse cear Miss reminded us of the instability of our food system. Many of the food we want are not produced at home.
Trump’s tariffs are nothing more than a political stance. During his first term, he threatened Mexico with a 5% tariff, I retreated after 2 weeks. The current bounty period may expand indefinitely. However, the actual trade war will have a dramatic effect on food supply. Avocados are the perfect case study. The national obsession is phenomenal: In 2023, the average person ate more than 9 pounds of them– Equivalent to fruits of average size of 27. Over 90% of the avocados purchased by Americans come from Mexico. They are the country’s top imports in terms of value, Lewis Rivera, professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M University, told me. For example, the impact of a 25% tariff (the associated costs) is more important, as it is much more expensive than a banana. Avocado-dependent businesses will also feel this way. A representative of Chipotle told me that tariffs would certainly raise prices.
The America First Perspective frames tariffs as an opportunity to boost domestic production. Approximately 10% of the avocados available in the US are grown here. The majority come from California, with Florida and Hawaii making up the rest. Zach Conrad, a food system expert at William & Mary University, checked out many reasons why domestic production failed to replicate the current avocado prize money. Avocados grow in too few regions of the United States, and in addition, they produce fruits mainly only from Spring to early autumn. Trump’s immigration policies threaten farm workers, which are already declining.
Avocado aside, the United States is already producing enough food to feed itself. About Foods worth 4,000 calories According to the USDA’s latest estimate, each person had one day in 2010. That year, the average person burned 2,500 calories a day. But food is more than just calories. The United States produces a lot of grains, oils, sweeteners and meat, but there are far fewer fresh produce and legumes. In recent years, the country has become Online importer Of food. “The food groups we produce the least to meet our dietary needs are fruits and vegetables,” Conrad said. in 202269% of fresh vegetables and 51% of fresh fruit imported by the US came from Mexico. Meat, canola oil, and, um, biscuits and wafers make up most of the US imports from Canada, but 20% of the country’s fresh, vegetarian imports come from there too.
In theory, America was able to grow all its own produce. But that requires a complete remake of the food system. More land needs to concentrate on growing fruits, vegetables and nuts, which will be less on grains and sweeteners. It also means dealing with labor shortages, increasing the number of farmers, finding the right land, building new infrastructure, processing and shipping each new crop.
All of these issues are extremely complicated. Many fruits and vegetables are so delicate that they must be harvested by hand, so machines cannot compensate for human labor. Wheat farmers cannot switch to cultivated tomatoes. Specialty crops (categories that include fruit, vegetables, or tree nuts) require specialized knowledge as well as specialized equipment that can cost millions of dollars. Conrad said it would take years to solve all of these issues.
Blocking Canada has a more subtle effect than abstaining from Mexican produce, but not so far-reaching effects. Chris Barrett, a professor specializing in agricultural economics at Cornell University, says that grains, beef and pork are produced domestically, but sourced overseas can be inexpensive. For example, the demand for beef on the West Coast of the United States could be cheaper to realize from the Canadian prairies than from the packing houses on the East Coast. Another major contribution to Canada’s American diet is canola oil, which produces the state in relatively small quantities. The ongoing campaign against seed oil led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may argue that Americans are better without canola oil, but for now, the US has Run with processed foods. Without cheap canola oil from Canada, many frozen foods and packaged items would be even more expensive. “Even if you think it’s healthy, that great ratatouille you put in a can probably contain a bit of imported oil, and it’s going to be priced,” Barrett said.
The issues with the American fast food system are not merely about costs. There will be a lack of diversity. There are no tropical fruits like mangoes and coconuts, and there are far fewer specialised varieties like Sumo Citrus and Meyer Lemons, as domestic growers must concentrate on the basics. Given the current focus on meat, grains and sweeteners, it will promote a less-than-healthy diet. Efforts towards the ideals that “make America healthy” pushed out by RFK Jr. are more difficult with fewer options and higher prices. As my colleague Nicholas Florco recently wrote, people buy food based on taste, convenience and cost. America, like Conrad, was able to supply a healthy diet to the whole population the study It does not completely blow up agriculture priorities, but it shows.
America’s first food supply concept – harvesting homemade produce, eating seasonally and supporting farmers – is an idyllic era that has been accepted by RFK Jr. supporters, raw breast drinkers and farmers. It follows the idea of going back to. ‘ – Market followers across the political spectrum. “It’s a good way to think about food,” Conrad said. But that doesn’t match the reality of how Americans are eating now. Every time you go to the grocery store, you choose from a variety of amazing foods from around the world. McDonald’s French burgers are made by most Americans Mexican sesame seeds Canadian canola oil. Eating guacamole bulges every year in mid-February is a pillar of American culture, a testament to our interdependence with our neighbors.
