Supporters of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) celebrate in front of City Hall following the nationwide Istanbul municipal elections on March 31, 2024.
Yasin Akgul | AFP | Getty Images
Turkey’s opposition won surprise victories in several major cities in Sunday’s local elections, dealing a severe blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party and handing it its biggest defeat in more than two decades.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu: “Those who cannot understand the national message will ultimately lose” told thousands of supporters Vote counting showed that his center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) had won the megacity of Istanbul by more than 1 million votes, Reuters reported.
“Tonight, 16 million Istanbul citizens sent a message to both our rival and the president,” he said. Said.
President Erdogan’s conservative Justice and Development Party (locally known as AKP) controls the country at the national level.
In a speech Sunday night, Erdogan acknowledged that the party had “lost altitude” and would work to right its mistakes.
“If there are mistakes, we will correct them… If there is something missing, we will complete it,” he said on the balcony of the presidential palace, sources said. Reuters translation. Erdogan, 70, has ruled Turkey since 2003.
An overwhelming opposition victory in local elections in Turkey’s major cities, including Istanbul, Izmir and the capital Ankara, could take the country in a new direction. Erdoğan himself rose to fame in his 1990s as mayor of Istanbul and later won the presidency. Analysts are now speculating that Imamoglu’s victory in Istanbul could make him the front-runner in Turkey’s 2028 presidential election.
Top Shot – Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was re-elected as supporters of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) celebrate in front of city hall after municipal elections were held across Turkey on March 31, 2024. waves his hand. Imammoğlu’s second victory in the Istanbul municipal elections has cemented his position as Turkey’s mayor, the top opposition leader dealing another blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling party.
Yasin Akgul | AFP | Getty Images
Erdoğan himself once said: Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey..
Imamoglu, a 52-year-old former businessman, has been the mayor of Istanbul since 2019. He tried to run for president in Turkey’s 2023 general election but was banned by Erdogan’s government, a move that CHP supporters say was purely political. Mr. Erdoğan’s party won a landslide victory in these elections, and the AKP came out on top at the national level.
Approximately 61 million voters were eligible to vote for mayors, members of parliament, and other administrative leaders in Turkey’s 81 provinces. According to the country’s state-run Anadolu Agency, turnout was 76%. The CHP gained ground in 36 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, including some of Turkey’s biggest cities, the newspaper said.
Rampant inflation, economic dissatisfaction
The Turkish economy has been in a slump since 2018. The country is grappling with severe inflation, a weak currency, and struggling foreign exchange reserves. The annual inflation rate in the country of 85 million hit 67% in February, and Turkey’s national interest rate remains at 50%, both figures causing great pain for ordinary Turkish consumers.
Timothy Ashe, senior emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, told CNBC: “The outcome is dire for the ruling AKP – failing to win major cities and possibly even losing the national vote to the opposition CHP. ” he said. “This result is all about inflation.”
Istanbul-based economist Arda Tunka made a similar assessment.
“In 2019, AKP lost major cities due to the effects of 2018. [economic] Because the crisis was felt primarily in large cities. Now, the threat of poverty and unemployment is spreading across the country,” he told X.
Importantly, Sunday’s election results “mark the first time since 2002, when the AKP first came to power, that economic factors outweigh identity-related factors,” Tunka said.
The Turkish lira was trading at 32.43 to the dollar in Istanbul on Monday morning, near an all-time low against the US currency. Turkey’s beleaguered banknotes have lost 40% of their value against the dollar in the past year and nearly 83% in the past five years.
Will it be a “game changer” for Türkiye?
Hakan Akbas, a senior adviser at Albright Stonebridge Group, told CNBC that the election results “could mean big changes for Turkey.”
“It could breathe new life into Turkey’s democracy and bring new perspectives to tackling economic woes, urban planning and public services. But that’s a big assumption,” he said.
Many election observers expected the election to be an uphill battle for the domestic opposition, which is made up of the CHP and a number of other political parties, many of which have different objectives and strategies. Therefore, for many, this big victory came as a surprise.
“Success will depend on the opposition’s ability to come together as a united front and come up with a vision for Turkey’s future that resonates with all,” Akbas said. He added that the election results were “crucial for the trajectory of Turkey’s fiscal policy” and “could bring about unpopular but necessary reforms.”
Opposition supporters also hailed it as a victory for democracy, expressing concern that Erdogan’s government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and that his control over much of the Turkish media has sharply tilted the political playing field. was.
Turkish President Recep Erdoğan addresses reporters during the final national press conference of the NATO High-Level Summit held at the Litexpo Conference Center in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 12, 2023.
Dominika Zarzycka | Nurfoto | Getty Images
But while Erdogan’s opponents celebrated the weekend’s results, some analysts say this is by no means the end for the Turkish president and his hold on power.
Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of advisory firm Teneo Intelligence, said: “The electoral chaos in today’s local elections will make it difficult for President Erdogan to push through his planned self-serving constitutional reforms, but this is not a political game changer.” Analysis memo. “It would be naive and wrong to think that this setback is the beginning of the end for President Erdoğan.”
Turkey’s longtime leader “will not move towards greater political accommodation given his aversion to power-sharing, nor will he use this painful defeat to weaken his polarizing rhetoric.” ” Piccoli wrote.
“Rather, President Erdoğan is likely to respond forcefully (though not necessarily immediately) to the challenges posed by opposition victories in local elections. It is unlikely to abandon plans for major amendments to the “Charter,” he added, referring to constitutional reforms planned to strengthen and expand the powers of the executive branch at the expense of the opposition and other branches of the Turkish government.
