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Diving overview:
- Turkey could lose its Thanksgiving monopoly Demand for poultry meat is facing a long-term decline and consumers are considering other protein options such as beef and pork, according to a study. Report published by Corbank this month.
- This year’s overall turkey supply is down 100 million pounds compared to 2018, but bird inventories are up 4% compared to the same time last year. As a result, turkey prices at grocery stores could be lower this year, the Cooperative Bank report said.
- Retail consumption of turkeys hit a 43-year low last holiday season, while the cost of producing turkeys has continued to rise since early 2023 due to avian influenza outbreaks and soaring feed prices.
Dive Insight:
Turkey has long been considered the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving table, but a mix of supply and demand factors and continued inflationary pressures hitting consumers have cast doubt on Turkey’s future as a mainstay. There is.
Since 2018, the amount of frozen turkey featured in retail advertising has also decreased by 36%, according to USDA data cited in the report, indicating demand for the product may be leveling off. It shows. Turkey prices fell 2.3% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. consumer price index.
As the Corbank report points out, turkeys are often a “loss-making staple” for grocery stores, with the price of turkeys increasing in the hopes that consumers will buy more items on the same trip. is set low.
Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist at Corbank, said in the report that many consumers only cook one turkey a year for Thanksgiving, so they can forego this product and turn to other proteins to replace it. He said there would be no options left. However, analysts pointed out that while whole turkey sales did not increase, ground turkey volume increased by 5.5% compared to 2023, according to Circana data.
“Ground turkey is the second largest category after ground meat. This is because while the traditional image of turkey may be Norman Rockwell’s iconic ‘Freedom from Want’ painting, “This is a strong signal that U.S. consumer perceptions are changing,” Earnest said.
Turkish producers remain optimistic about this year’s holiday outlook. in Report released earlier this fallAccording to Butterball research, 87% of Thanksgiving organizers expect to serve turkey this year, 86% of consumers plan to celebrate the holiday, and the average meal attendance is 9 people. It has become.
