It has become easy and commonplace to blame Todd Bowles for the troubles the Bucks have had this year. After all, they rank 23rd in scoring defense, 28th in yards allowed per game, and 24th in EPA/play. These are not the numbers you would expect from a team led by a defensive-minded head coach.
And it was frustrating because many of the defense’s struggles were in areas that have traditionally troubled them. Things like access to the middle of the field, soft zone coverage, and poor tackling have been discussed ad nauseam this year.
However, the Bucks’ defense has improved since coming off a Week 11 bye. Tampa Bay deserves credit for that.
And the Bucks deserve even more credit given that their back-end success came about through a revolving door of back-end play due to a constant series of injuries. And while I admit this contest was the worst offense in the NFL, Tampa Bay’s defense was able to: rank Ranked 3rd in EPA/Permits to Play and 12th in Permit Success Rate. The great result is that they are holding these three opponents to an average of 14.3 points per game.
I’m skeptical that this represents a progressive change that will propel the team into the playoffs while containing high-powered offenses like Minnesota, Green Bay, and Detroit. But it wasn’t for a lack of effort on Bowles’ part.
If you think this is the “same old Todd Bowles” you haven’t been paying attention.
Todd Bowles’ defense has changed over the years.
Bucks CB Jamel Dean, FS Antwan Winfield Jr., OLB Yaya Diaby – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
If you were to conceptualize a “traditional” Todd Bowles defense, what characteristics would you use to describe it?
Blitz Heavy and Cover 3 are probably the two staples.
And while these things remain a big part of his philosophy, he doesn’t stick to them so much that they’re immune to change. In the last 2-3 years Sim pressure and “creepers” It’s all the rage in the NFL. The goal of these types of rushing strategies is to keep seven players in coverage and try to get to the quarterback with four rushers.
The complication, however, is that not all four rushers will be traditional down linemen. Someone (most likely an edge rusher) is trying to drop into a shallow zone. Off-ball linebackers or defensive backs, on the other hand, typically rush from deep to catch the offensive line’s protection by surprise.
When executed properly, the offensive line will often commit too many resources to blocking one side of the line while the free rusher swallows the quarterback from the other side. The most high-profile defense to use this strategy with great success last year was the Baltimore Ravens. they were very good at it. Defensive coordinator Mike McDonald used that to get the head coaching job with the Seahawks.
Currently, several teams across the NFL are using sim pressure to confuse their offenses, get unblocked rushers, and force quarterbacks to make quick throws while holding down hopes for deep, extended shot plays. trying to give up.
And you know who uses these trendy defensive solutions? It’s Todd Bowles.
The Bucks break through the creeper and are under pressure with four players. This was hit multiple times against Vegas on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/Zwy4wvMOjZ
— Joshua Quaipo (@josh_queipo) December 10, 2024
Evolution of coverage
And Todd Bowles is following other trends across the league on the back end as well. He used to be a heavy Cover 3 scheme with a lot of coverage, but over the past three to four years he has practiced a lot of effective defense and increased his quarter, or Cover 4, rate. In fact, some might argue that Bowles was: The era of quarters has arrived. Although it had been popularized to some degree by Vic Fangio before that, it was Bowles who introduced it so effectively in Super Bowl LV that the rest of the NFL teams the following year went into a two-tier structure against Mahomes. changed and eventually moved to it as a pre-league. Snaps are frequently seen as shifts across the league.
Bowls has received quite a bit of buzz regarding the lack of man coverage, but the league remains a zone-coverage-dominated league. More than half of the leagues have man coverage below 30%. The difference between the Bucks’ man coverage percentage, which ranks 31st in the NFL, and the team’s man coverage percentage, which ranks 20th, is just 7%. And Bowles isn’t against doing more interviews with men. He increased his batting average by about 5% this past week against the Raiders.
Connect the lineup
Bucks FS Antwon Winfield Jr. – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay’s defense has injuries. This year was a killer. The team valued linebacker Sarvosia Dennis as a long-term, late coverage option. And through the first few weeks of the season, it looked like he could help the team develop enough talent to at least complement a high-scoring offense.
However, when Dennis left with a shoulder injury late in the season, Todd Bowles struggled to adapt as he continued to run K.J. Britt on the field even though he struggled mightily in coverage. Part of that may be due to injuries to free safety Antoine Winfield Jr., nickelback Tykie Smith and strong safety Jordan Whitehead.
But it’s been clear as of late that Bowles wants a dime look, with six defensive backs on the field to help with coverage. But the team can’t keep four healthy safeties for an entire game to see what it’s really like. But that didn’t stop Bowles’ creativity.
Last week, he introduced a new wrinkle to the defense. He eschewed the typical two- or three-linebacker personnel structure and went with a five-man front nickel package. This grouping placed three inside defensive linemen and two outside linebackers as a pass rush front. Behind that, they combined linebacker Lavonte David with five defensive backs. This allowed him to be the best forward move in terms of pass rush and back end coverage.
Mr. Bowles was asked about the packages and talked about how he obtained them.
“Smoke and Mirrors” [laughs]smoke and mirrors,” Bowles said. “There are some unconventional packages that we have put in place, the safeties do a good job with the linebackers. [The Raiders] The tight end was also very good, so we had to cover him and then try to stop the run in the same package, so between me and “Izzy” (Christian Igian) I thought about it. [Kaevon] Meriwether, Tykey, Tavierre [Thomas] – They did a very good job of covering and making those plays. When Vi [Jones] He came in and played well too. ”
What to expect from Todd Bowles’ defense for the rest of the season
Bucks head coach Todd Bowles – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Todd Bowles’ defense has struggled mightily this year for a myriad of reasons. Some of that can be attributed to personnel usage and playing too much soft zone coverage and not properly defending the middle of the field, but it’s also possible that some of that has been due to injuries that have plagued Tampa Bay since then. Week 1, other factors may be beyond his control, such as bugs.
But if you take a step back and look at things from 30,000 feet, you’ll see that Bowles is going to do whatever it takes to get his defense back to championship form as the team gains momentum toward a playoff berth. I understand. Expect some improvement as the team heads towards the end.
And give Bowles credit for trying to find a solution while working around the problems caused by a lack of depth at linebacker and historic injuries at safety.
