Bucs head coach Todd Bowles has to know this isn’t 1994.
This isn’t 2004.
This is not 2014.
This is 2024.
And in 2024, soccer decision-making is more evolved than ever. Gone are the days of 3 yards and dust, automatic punt/kick calls on every quarter down other than a two-minute warning, and days of “Go to overtime” and “Trust your defense.” It should be over now. .
But for Bowles, a conservative approach is the safe one.
Last week, he bucked this trend with a fake punt call that circumvented a relatively successful offense for a gimmick. I didn’t dislike the aggressiveness, but I’d rather have a very talented offensive coordinator like Liam Cohen lead a very good offense and try to get just a few yards on a fake punt. The idea was that there was a higher chance of success.
Bucks QB Baker Mayfield and RB Bucky Irving – Photo courtesy of USA Today
on monday night, 30-24 overtime loss at Kansas City Against an undefeated Chiefs team, the Bucks played it safe in two situations late in the game. The first one, although ignored in the grand scheme of things, was particularly impressive to me.
With 12:49 left in the fourth quarter and the game tied at 17-17, the Bucks were up 4-and-2 from their own 38 points. For Bowles, choosing to go after him would have been a very gutsy and aggressive play. First down. I’ll admit it honestly. But the game was heading away from Tampa Bay.
Bowles’ defense had just allowed Kansas City the game-tying touchdown on a 12-play, 70-yard drive lasting 6 minutes, 36 seconds. And Tampa Bay was about to face off in one of the best fourth quarter/overtime games of all time. It was home to one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, and they put on a breathtaking defense.
It’s also possible that the aggressive play backfired. The Bucks’ offense could have failed to convert, giving the Chiefs the ball on a short field and scoring. Instead, Bowles opted to punt.
I try not to judge with hindsight and called for the Bucs to go for it at the time, but for what it’s worth, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive. One of the reasons they scored the touchdown is because they were aggressive in similar situations and went for a touchdown on a fourth-and-one from their own 46.
The difference in field position is 8 yards. The required yardage is 1 yard different. A world of different ways of thinking.
But miraculously, the Bucs were able to produce some late-game heroics, with the defense getting a late stop and the offense setting up a late-game drive that led to a touchdown of its own. Then, with 30 seconds left in the game, Baker Mayfield connected with Ryan Miller for a 1-yard touchdown, making the score 24-23 and giving Kansas City the lead.
What would you have done if you were Bucs head coach Todd Bowles?
Here was the second pivotal decision for Todd Bowles and the Bucks. Let’s kick an extra point. With 30 seconds left and three timeouts, let’s hope the defense doesn’t allow Patrick Mahomes to get in field goal range.
Or be bold.
As a road underdog, understand that gaining even one second is counterproductive to your chances of winning, and play to put pressure on your opponent.
Bowles chose to play it safe. And he was wrong.
In case you’re wondering, Mahomes is 5-0* in OT during the regular season, according to FOX Sports Research.
— Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV) November 5, 2024
This statistic does not include overtime against the Bills in the 2021 divisional round, where Mahomes won 6-0. The Bucks just lost in overtime to the Falcons last month due to a lack of offense on the field. If Tampa Bay lost the coin toss, it was very likely that it would happen again, and it did.
Instead, Bowles trusted a gassed-up defense to get a stop in overtime. That probably won’t happen, and ultimately it didn’t.
With offensive coordinator Liam Cohen and quarterback Baker Mayfield watching helplessly from the sideline, Kansas City drove 70 yards in 10 plays with 5:52 left and scored the winning touchdown.
NFL Network’s Jeff Darlington said it best.
The Bucks had three possibilities against the Chiefs.
1️⃣ After the TD, go for the 2 and decide the game there.
2️⃣ If you win the coin toss, you get to drive all over the field for a TD.
3️⃣ Lose the coin toss and give the ball to the world’s best QB on his home field.
Only one choice made sense.
— Jeff Darlington (@JeffDarlington) November 5, 2024
Huh? So, wouldn’t you rather play in wet conditions in overtime than go for a two-point conversion with a chance of winning in wet conditions with less than 30 seconds left?
— Pewter Report 🏴☠️ (@PewterReport) November 5, 2024
Bucks FS Antwon Winfield Jr. and Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Actively coach. Coach to win.
Trust the members of your team who have remained fairly consistent, even in the face of extremely difficult circumstances.
The Bucs didn’t do that in a 30-24 loss to the still-undefeated Chiefs on Monday night.
The results were as expected, with Tampa Bay currently at 4-5.
This is not 1994. The Bucks need a thinker willing to adapt to the times. I hope it’s Todd Bowles, but I’ve seen this so many times that I know it’s probably not him.
The season isn’t over yet. The schedule will be much easier after Sunday’s game against the 49ers.
But the Bucks will need offense to get back into the playoffs by season’s end. I hope they get through this.
