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As the Ukrainian spring transitions bloody into summer, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his generals end a failed winter offensive in Donbass that killed 75,000 Russian soldiers and mercenaries from the Wagner Group. Even so, they are trying to manage the impasse. Overall Kremlin casualties continue to rise, exceeding 200,000, according to the UK Ministry of Defense, indicating the end of Putin in Ukraine, especially as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are drawing It is becoming increasingly clear that the beginning of the is likely in sight. The long-awaited Kiev counterattack was approaching.
Ukraine is a vast, Texas-sized country. Kiev’s counterattack could come from anywhere, from anywhere. Given the vastness of the country, Russian General Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov faces a mission of the same vital importance as German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel during World War II.From the summer of 1944. Final outcomes like Normandy and Operation Overlord over the fall are likely to determine the outcome of Putin’s “special military operations.”
The question becomes one of how Gerasimov set up the defense, Donbass, Crimea or some other place. Part of that question is also one of his: Will the Russian army fight, surrender, or simply lay down their arms and return to Russia? So far, the Russian army has shown no tendency to defend well. The nature of the fighting that took place in Kherson Oblast last fall could be a good indicator of future Russian battlefield performance in defense, and could influence the timing and location of Ukrainian offensives.
The Kremlin, at least outwardly, suggests it believes a Ukrainian counterattack could come to Crimea. , clearly showing the vast network of trenches being rapidly constructed and prepared in the Perekop Isthmus. Moscow is strongly strengthening this strategically advantageous narrow land bridge that connects Crimea with the heart of the interior of Ukraine. These newly built fortresses are also tied to natural obstacles and are hastily constructed along the beachfront to prevent amphibious landings.
Ukrainian rescue team brings back 31 children from war-torn Russia
If Crimea is where the current D-Day started, this battle has been fought on this same land many times before, dating back to Roman times. Most recently, it includes World War II, when German forces invaded Soviet-held Crimea. 1941. Kiev can learn much from the lessons the Soviets learned after losing that battle and retaking the peninsula in 1944.
Russia’s defensive strategy is to slow movement, create bottlenecks, lead armored units into kill zones, and destroy them with direct and indirect fire. The images depict the means Moscow intended to do so: trenches, tank traps, ditches, and dragon tooth barriers. The adoption of the BTM-3, a Soviet-era trench digging machine capable of “digging straight, zigzag or curved trenches” hastened its completion. The BTM-3 “can dig basic trenches 3.5 feet deep or full-size trenches 5 feet deep. The bottom of the trench is about 2 feet wide.” These means of defense are symbolic, if not defining, of Russia’s overall method of warfare.
Maintaining control of the Crimean peninsula and affecting the Black Sea region in the event of a Ukrainian counterattack by default makes its defense strategically important to Russia’s national security. It declared a red line on a possible invasion of the peninsula and shot down US drones flying from its shores. Ben Hodges, a retired Army lieutenant general and former U.S. Army European commander, sees it this way. Hodges rightly emphasizes that the “liberation of Crimea” is the key to Ukraine’s victory and therefore “decisive”. The Kremlin’s sophisticated defense preparations are evidence that Russia has reached the same conclusion.
But Russians have a problem. Neither Commander-in-Chief Valery Zardini nor Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Shirsky will allow the Kiev offensive to become entangled in the Crimean defense preparedness net built by the Russian garrison. Much like the French Maginot Line of World War I, Putin’s defensive fortifications are static and vulnerable to interception of supply lines and can be bypassed. , Feodosia, Kerch, Sevastopol, Chornomorske and Yevpatoria, the peninsula itself could be isolated and besieged as an island if it chose to reject the Black Sea ports. If so, from there, it becomes a battle of wills, owned by Putin, the Kremlin, and his pre-war millbloggers, but mobilized soldiers and conscripts on the ground “at all costs It is instructed to hold
The Ukrainian counterattack will likely begin in Donbass, where Russia is militarily weakest, but will end in southern Crimea with a crushing defeat of Russian forces and the fall of Putin’s regime. , Ukraine systematically and progressively “unsustainable” Crimea with precise deep attacks on key military installations, military headquarters, and the Kerch Bridge, the lifeline of the main military supply chain back to Russia. must be
Ukraine will not engage definitively with the entrenched Russian military. Rather, they set the terms of the battle at a time and place of their choice, maneuver it, and defeat the Russian ground forces. If Kiev advances into Crimea, they will target and block troop formations, airfields, supply and ammunition depots, and military headquarters that command and control Russia’s defenses. The key to Ukraine’s success is to quickly break through the defenses of the Perekop Isthmus. This requires extensive artillery preparation of objectives and the suppression of Russian artillery to support the defense. Then it takes a strong engineering effort to create lanes for quick passage through armored formations.
Russian ground forces are likely to be overwhelmed as they have proved inept to change to date. There was no “fork or sequel”. Except for the frequently repeated threat of nuclear escalation, there is no reason to believe in its existence today either.
The Biden administration unnecessarily complicates this task by denying Ukraine deep-strike capabilities in the form of ATACMS and F16 fighter jets, but Kiev’s great ingenuity, adaptability, and resourcefulness And Zelensky’s team will find a way. Across Germany, Poland and Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are training for individual and collective missions. Crew members are rapidly mastering their combat skill sets ahead of the pace of newly acquired weapon systems offered by NATO nations. Combined on the battlefield, they could overwhelm a tired, demoralized and ill-equipped Russian army. Planners ensure operations are synchronized, logistically supported, and rehearsed. nauseaThis is in some ways the beginning of the end.
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As Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers once sang, “Waiting is the hardest part.” Mikhail Podlyak, chief of staff at the Ukrainian president’s office, said on March 3 that the spring counterattack could be “within two months at the earliest.” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov then said on March 29, following that statement, “Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive between April and May, attacking Russian forces in several directions at once. .
Meanwhile, Ukraine is giving Kremlin soldiers time to consider their fate. In a message to Russian forces on April 3, Zelensky said, “There is still time to leave, or we will destroy them.” Considering that Russia suffered heavy losses in the Kiev suburb of Bakhmut last March and captured the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, Putin’s forces are now worthy of their own due to the beginning of the end of the Russian presidency. Suitable to consider whether… After all, Ukraine’s D-Day is just around the corner.
John Sweet is a retired Colonel in the U.S. Army with 30 years of experience as a military intelligence officer.
Click here to read more about John Sweet
