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Polls are a useful, if somewhat sluggish, tool in politics, and Democrats took no small comfort this weekend with an ABC/Ipsos poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by four points nationally.
But that’s not what’s important about this poll. After all, Rasmussen has Trump ahead by two points. Who knows which is right? The point is, on August 13, this same ABC poll also had Harris ahead by four points. In other words, Kamala’s momentum didn’t just disappear — it’s been gone for a while.
I first felt the air escaping from Harris’ balloon a little over two weeks ago in San Francisco, where she was likely to be seen as a local hero, but questions were already brewing from almost everyone I met about what she would stand for and what she would do if elected president.
Trump-Vance has conducted a combined 37 interviews since last month, while Harris-Waltz has conducted just one.
We’ve all seen the viral video from the Democratic National Convention, where delegates, when asked what Harris’ favorite policy is, stare off into the distance searching for an answer that doesn’t exist, as if they’re being asked to utilize an ancient Greek vocabulary.
I’ve seen this expression countless times. Even many people who are determined to vote for the vice president — in Republican states, Democrat states, suburbs, cities and small towns — admit that it’s like buying a political scratch card: They’re not sure what they’re going to get.
Now, to be clear, from the time former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shoved President Joe Biden face-first off the stage until just before Democrats gathered in Chicago, the momentum was there, the mood was real and Harris’ approval ratings were rising.
Kamala Harris has not held a formal press conference since emerging as the Democratic candidate.
The Democrats I spoke to also felt this loud and clear, as they sensed a kind of mood of doom surrounding Grandpa Joe. But moods are strange things, and they tend to die out quickly. In fact, it was Republicans who were convinced that, immediately after Trump survived the assassination attempt, the image of a bloody, defiant Trump had already won the election.
But there’s no need to rush.
So why did the wheels come off on Harris’ Vibebus just as the reckless act was just getting started? There are several failings to be noted, including his stubborn and bizarre refusal to answer questions or be interviewed.
This is where the slowness of the polls comes into play. For two weeks, the liberal media has been telling us Harris didn’t need to be interviewed. She was on the rise, they promised. She wasn’t. And during that time, voters I spoke to almost universally said Harris needed to start answering questions. Today, the sponge bath she and Gov. Tim Walz got on CNN last week certainly seems too little, too late.
A bigger, related problem for Harris is that she lacks the political talent that allows candidates to effortlessly juggle three interviews a day and take advantage of unscripted moments that might work to their advantage.
Harris and Waltz clearly need a second act. (AP Photo/Jacqueline Martin)
Harris has none of these skills, and she never needed to. Without political savvy and first-rate instincts, you don’t win a competitive presidential primary because you’ll lose to better candidates, but her lack of battleground experience has hurt her because she never had to face other candidates.
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As the first orange leaves fall to the ground this week, we are back to where we were before Joe Biden’s inability to assume the presidency was highlighted in giant neon signs: the race is 50-50, the electorate is as divided as ever, and we’re heading into the fourth quarter with everything essentially tied.
For Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, who helped blunt Harris’s brief surge in the polls, that means continuing to stay in the public eye as much as possible. Don’t be surprised to see either of them wield a giant pair of scissors at the grand opening of a Dairy Queen.
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Harris and Waltz, on the other hand, need second acts: It won’t be enough for Kamala to explain how to make collard greens or for Tim to eat pork chops on a skewer at the state fair.
American voters have a lot of questions, but do these inexperienced Democratic candidates have any answers?
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