A well-stocked grocery store is a magical place. Time and space disappear amidst sparkling pyramids of fruit, rows of golden bread, and freezers packed with ice cream. The ripe apples might have been picked a year ago, the beef might come from Australian cows. The grocer defies season and geography to ensure shoppers always have what they want.
Last year, it seemed those promises were no longer being kept. The egg aisles at my local New York City supermarket were empty. Avian flu had devastated chickens across the country, depleting egg supplies. Americans were stockpiling whatever eggs they could find, sometimes even buying them themselves. $18 per carton.
While bird flu is a unique and extreme example, grocery stores continue to be hit by food shortages of all kinds. Olive oil, cocoa, and orange juice have all been in short supply and have skyrocketed in price in recent months. The problem is primarily climate change; olive oil has more than doubled in price in the past year. Past 2 years With olive groves decimated by Mediterranean drought and bad weather, growers are turning to juice production as many of Brazil’s orange trees are diseased and weakened by the heat and drought. From other fruitsDue to rising temperatures, It became difficult The move is intended to curb the spread of bird flu, which is contributing to the egg crisis.
These aren’t isolated events. Other foods, including peanuts, sugar, vanilla, and beef, have also experienced temporary shortages in recent years. “We’re entering a period of disruption,” Evan Fraser, a food systems expert at the University of Guelph in Canada, told me. In the near future, Americans may no longer be able to count on supermarkets to consistently stock cheap foods. Gone are the days of food abundance, replaced by darker times.
The magic of supermarkets is that they hide the inherent variability of agriculture. Arugula clamshells may look the same from season to season, even when harvests vary widely. Stable weather is one of the key factors needed to keep supermarkets well stocked, Fraser said. And with climate change, that future doesn’t look bright. This week, unusually hot weather hit California, where most of America’s fresh produce is grown. Burnt salad vegetables and Damaged berriesAt the same time, Hurricane Beryl, of unprecedented strength and speed, destroyed farms in the Caribbean. Texas corn and sorghum harvests shrink.
Heat, drought, floods, and other climate impacts make it difficult to grow crops, and importing them from other areas is not always an option. Certain crops are grown in only a few parts of the world, making them especially vulnerable to food shortages. The United States continues to experience high sugar prices, which are reflected not only in sugar but in all kinds of sweets, due to the following reasons: Extremely dry conditions in India and ThailandMadagascar, which produces most of the world’s vanilla crop, was hit by a cyclone in March, making it the world’s largest producer of vanilla. It threatens about half of the crop and ice cream price.
Climate change is exacerbating conditions for pests and diseases to spread. Along with heat and water-related stress, “we’re seeing both of those things become more common globally,” said David Lovell, professor and director of Stanford University’s Center for Food Security and the Environment. Over the past two decades, Florida’s orange and grapefruit production has plummeted. Over 75 percent Citrus greening disease is an infectious disease spread by small insects. Brazilian fruit is also destroyedOther effects of climate change on agriculture are less visible. Dry GrasslandFarmers rely on it to feed their cattle. Last year, Beef prices approach record high.
What makes climate change so troubling is that it affects so many aspects of the food system. Some of the cargo ships stuck in huge coastal traffic jams Due to falling water levels caused by climate change-teeth Delay food deliveryEvents like the war in Ukraine Wheat production cutsRobel said declines in production and imports of corn, the country’s main export, “may not have an obvious weather link, but they are occurring above baseline.”
All this means higher prices and less stable supplies. It’s already happening, but you may not notice it. Inflation is hiding some of the price increases. Weather-related shortages can sometimes be solved by importing food from unaffected places. For basic agricultural products like cocoa, wheat and coffee, price increases may seem small compared to what’s happening on the farms themselves. These goods are usually stockpiled, and there is a backup supply available if shortages occur, softening the price increases. Most shortages can be avoided painlessly because of the variety of products available. Shoppers can substitute olive oil for canola. Juice makers can replace oranges with mandarins. Food companies also have tricks to keep food shortages from being noticed. In March, Cadbury said, A miniature version of one of the chocolate bars This is because poor harvests have caused the price of cocoa to soar.
Robel said wealthy countries are generally protected from the worst effects of crop shortages. Foods sold in these countries are typically more processed, so the cost of ingredients is only one factor in the overall price. Poorer countries that rely on raw ingredients are hit hardest. In the United States, flour prices have risen due to reduced wheat imports from Ukraine, while in Egypt, Bread consumption halved.
But as the world warms, Americans will eventually find themselves in a bind. Already, Mexico is facing a serious avocado shortage due to drought. 90 percent of U.S. supplymeaning Avoid guacamole during the Super BowlWhen stockpiles of goods are depleted, prices rise, What’s going to happen to cocoa in the next few years? Fresh produce can’t be stored away for emergencies. Even the ubiquitous banana is not immune to rising prices. Rising temperatures are exacerbating the spread of a devastating fungal disease, and the sophisticated storage rooms that allow bananas to be sold cheaply all year round are also facing a steep price hike. It is enough buffer Future ShortagesOf course, poor Americans bear the brunt of rising costs.
Certainly, the impacts could be mitigated: crops that are too hot in one area might be able to be grown in another, or they might be grown in greenhouses or so-called conservatories. Vertical FarmsRobel’s the studyUp to $434 billion in research and development spending would be needed to harden U.S. agriculture against climate change, which could include technologies such as improved machinery, as well as seeds and livestock genetically modified to withstand climate stresses.
A new era for grocery stores is here. It’s not that they’re going to be Malthusian; it’s just a little sad. We’ll probably see “more of what’s going on right now,” Lovell said. The produce you’re looking for might get more expensive or you might see more stock shortages. Basic foods like sugar and flour certainly won’t get cheaper. Guacamole might get too expensive to be a Super Bowl staple. Hamburger prices It will taste like steak. The heatwaves in Australia, Spain and California have devastated tomato crops. That ketchup bottle.
But the most devastating damage to Americans may be psychological: The supermarket mentality “was, and remains, based on infinite abundance,” writes author Benjamin Rolle. The Secret Life of GroceryThis abundance of food has reassured Americans that food is plentiful and affordable, shaping the way we think about eating, cooking, and shopping. That’s why if you look up a recipe today, you’ll likely have all the ingredients available tomorrow, whether it’s July or February. But grocery stores are changing. Shoppers once What do I want? The more salient question may soon become: What can I have?
