The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Crunch Week on the Debt Ceiling

It’s hard to underestimate how close the US is to the debt ceiling.

Talks are taking place – again. However, there is no agreement. No invoice. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated on NBC that the “tough” deadline is June 1, and nothing is near. Treasury Secretary Yellen said the government would struggle to pay the bill beyond June 15 if Congress didn’t take action, she added.

So how will the two sides avoid an epic clash with the debt ceiling?

At least one Republican lawmaker who met with Fox suggested Congress was past the point of no return as the government rushed to cruise control the debt ceiling.

Debt ceiling talks deadlocked between White House and Republicans: ‘Not productive,’ says GOP negotiator

“June 1 is too much to do, but too little time,” he said on condition of anonymity. “no way.”

It’s unclear how President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) will bridge the gap. Officials say such intense negotiations should have started at least in April, with both sides expected to run into issues like Friday’s. The suspension cost the two sides nearly three days of negotiations. And anyone who has seen negotiations like this knows that these speed bumps are inevitable.

There may be more. So they may not have enough time to wrap this up.

in short:

let’s say there teeth Contract by Tuesday. It will likely take until Thursday for the text of the bill to take shape. McCarthy said he would comply with the House’s 72-hour rule. This allows legislators to study and consider the bill. That also means the House may not be able to consider or even vote on the bill until next weekend.

So the Senate may not even pass the bill until Memorial Day on Monday, May 29. Even if the Senate is really pumped up, it could be until Wednesday, May 31, before things settle down. But the most likely date is June 1st or 2nd.

And remember this is a timeline if all goes well.

Debt ceiling crystal ball

But what we’ve omitted in this analysis is the potential contours of an agreement, let alone what it would take to gather votes to pass such a package.

please.

It’s about math.

Mixing Republican and Democratic votes to get a still-theoretic bill through the House (and the Senate too – we’ll explain someday) requires a highly precise yet enigmatic political alchemy. Republicans in the House have long said they want a “majority” to vote for future policy proposals. The concept goes back decades to the House Republicans. But this is him in 2023. In addition, McCarthy endured his longest race to the House of Representatives since 1859 to get the job.

After meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the White House in Washington, D.C., May 9, 2023, President Biden speaking to the press. (Photo credit: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

How would McCarthy agree to a deal that nearly 200 of the 222 House Republicans disagreed with?

A bill that doesn’t replicate the debt ceiling bill passed last month is likely to be adamantly opposed by 20 to 40 House Republicans.

Fox is said to have 180 Republican seats for McCarthy. A well-informed source told Fox that a drop below 180 could mean conservative Republicans would submit motions to “vacate the chairmanship” and force a vote on the chairman in the middle of Congress. rice field.

This has always been a concern for the Chair. Could he accept a deal that could jeopardize his own political career? Or is there a way to fine-tune this so that everyone believes they’ve secured victory?

House Democrats Launch ‘Hail Mary’ Attempt to Avoid McCarthy and Raise Debt Ceiling

This raises the question of which coalition of House Democrats would support the plan. How many Democrats can House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (NY) win, or can he afford to lose? However, this conversation isn’t really about Jeffries. It’s about President Biden. The president is urging liberal lawmakers to use the 14th Amendment (which says federal public debt doesn’t matter) to end the debate. Progressives worry that President Biden will give up too much, especially on domestic spending and welfare work requirements.

Who would be willing to walk the plank to achieve this, or stick to their principles?

This is another challenge for Mr. McCarthy. The House debt ceiling bill could pose a problem for negotiations.

President Biden put negotiations on hold until the House approved the bill, which received zero Democratic votes and had no chance of surviving a filibuster in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) is seeking to force President Joe Biden into negotiations on federal spending, and just after House-majority Republicans passed a barely drastic debt ceiling hike, Washington told reporters at the Houses of Parliament in Wednesday, April 26, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

But there’s something about the House Republican debt ceiling bill that’s worth noting. Passage of the bill was McCarthy’s greatest achievement since clenching the gavel of the Speaker of the House. He had little recourse in these negotiations if the House did not approve the Republican package. But the bill, if passed, could put Mr. McCarthy in trouble.

Fox reportedly has a growing number of House Republicans who are vetoing changes from the bill. McCarthy worked so hard to get lawmakers to agree to the policy that many are reluctant to accept anything short of it.

Furthermore, McCarthy is not former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of the Democratic Party of California. Pelosi often crafted bills to get the required matrix of votes. A senior House Republican told Fox last week that McCarthy would be more “big picture” and not intervene. He wants members to reach an agreement first. he follows them.

It may work internally. But a debt ceiling deal must be acceptable to President Biden and at least some Democrats. Otherwise, it’s just a debate within the Republican Party.

This brings us to the essence of “mathematics”. The focus has been on the vote count for the House Republicans’ April debt ceiling bill. How many Republicans are in favor of the bill? How many can buy it for less than the bill? That will determine the outcome of this debate over the next few days.

Now let’s get back to timing.

A casual observer might believe that lawmakers are holed up in Washington until a solution is found. it’s not. Only a few people were in Washington DC over the weekend. The House is in session this week, but will adjourn next week. So what happens if the debt ceiling bill doesn’t get debated by the weekend? Will Republicans keep the House in session, or will they dissolve everyone until they find something to vote on?

It is sliced ​​in two ways.

Congressional leaders may apply “Stockholm Syndrome” tactics to persuade lawmakers to vote in favor. In other words, “lock up” everyone in Washington until they all come back and vote yes. But that could mean setting fire to some of the House’s recess hours, not to mention various Memorial Day activities lawmakers love to attend in their hometowns.

It is generally believed that keeping everyone in DC can help leaders. This makes it easier to count and track where your votes are. But Fox reportedly could provoke dissent by detaining everyone in Washington if some Republicans don’t like the plan McCarthy ultimately crafted with Biden. ing.

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A surefire way to make members irritable and even grumpy? Keep everyone here for the holiday weekend and blow up some of your break time with nothing to vote for.

It is unclear what path the two sides will take.

But what if there is nothing to vote for?

This poses a problem as the country races towards the June 1 debt ceiling deadline.

Chad Purgram is currently Senior Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September of 2007 and is based in Washington, DC.