Taipei, Taiwan
CNN
—
Taiwan has found a steadily growing hole in its defense plan. Also, it is not something that can be easily solved by increasing the budget or purchasing additional weapons.
The island’s democracy of 23.5 million faces the challenge of recruiting enough young men to meet its military goals, and the Home Office says this problem is at least partly due to its stubbornly low birth rate. suggests that this is the cause.
The ministry said Taiwan’s population will fall for the first time in 2020, and warned earlier this year that military intake in 2022 would be the lowest in a decade and that the continued decline in the youth population would pose a “huge challenge” for Taiwan. did. future.
This is bad news at a time when Taiwan seeks to build up power to deter potential aggression by China Control – force if necessary.
And with the release of a new report by Taiwan’s National Development Council, the outlook is even darker, with by 2035 Taiwan is expected to have about 20,000 fewer births per year than the 153,820 it recorded in 2021. By 2035, Taiwan will also have the lowest fertility rate in the world, the report added.
Such forecasts have spurred debate over whether the government should extend the period of military service that eligible young people must follow. (as of March), 7,000 fewer than the target. In addition to that number, every man eligible, as a reserve he must undergo four months of training.
The change in military service requirements would mark a major turning point for Taiwan, which had previously attempted to cut conscription and cut mandatory military service from 12 months until 2018. Cheng said such a plan would be made public by the end of the year.
The news has met with opposition among some young Taiwanese students, who have expressed their dissatisfaction with PTT, Taiwan’s version of Reddit.
A poll conducted by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation in March of this year found that most Taiwanese agreed with the idea of extending the period of military service. It was found that 75.9% of his respondents thought it was reasonable for him to extend to one year. Only 17.8% were against.
Many experts argue that they have no other choice.
Su Tzu-Yun, director of Taiwan’s National Institute for Defense and Security, said before 2016, the pool of eligible men to enlist as military personnel or as reservists was about 110,000. That number has fallen every year since, and the pool is likely to be down to 74,000 by 2025, he said.
Within the next 10 years, the number of young men recruited by Taiwan’s military could drop by a third, Su said.
“This is a national security issue for us,” he said. “We are actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs as the population pool is shrinking.
“We are now facing a growing threat (from China) and need more firepower and personnel.”
Taiwan’s low fertility rate of 0.98 is well below the 2.1 required to maintain a stable population, but is not an outlier in East Asia.
In November, South Korea’s fertility rate fell to 0.79, Japan to 1.3, and mainland China to 1.15, breaking their own world records.
Still, experts say the trend poses unique challenges for Taiwan’s military, given the relative size of the island and the threats it faces.
China has made increasingly aggressive noises against the island since then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taipei in August. Shortly after she landed on Taiwan, Beijing launched an unprecedented series of military exercises around the island.
Since then, temperatures have remained high. Notably, China’s President Xi Jinping said at his key Communist Party conference in October that “reunification” was inevitable and reserved the option of taking “all necessary measures.”
Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s Air Force, said low birth rates were common across East Asia, but “the situation in Taiwan is very different.” The situation will become more serious. ”
“The United States has military bases in Japan and South Korea, but Singapore faces no serious military threats from its neighbors. It will be serious,” he added.
Roy Lee, deputy director of Taiwan’s China Institute of Economic Research, agreed that the security threat facing Taiwan is greater than that of the rest of the region.
“Taiwan’s population base is smaller than other countries facing similar problems, so the situation is more difficult,” he added.
Taiwan has a population of 23.5 million, while South Korea has 52 million, Japan 126 million, and China 1.4 billion.
In addition to declining recruitment, a declining youth population could also threaten the long-term performance of Taiwan’s economy, a pillar of Taiwan’s defense.
Taiwan is the world’s 21st largest economy, with a GDP of $668.51 billion last year, according to the London-based Center for Economics and Business Studies.
Much of its economic burden comes from its major role in supplying semiconductor chips. Semiconductor chips play an integral role in everything from smartphones to computers.
Taiwan’s homegrown semiconductor giant TSMC is seen as highly valuable not only to China but also to the global economy, forming part of a “silicon shield” against potential military aggression by Beijing. sometimes A strong incentive for the West to intervene.
Lee pointed out that population levels are closely intertwined with Gross Domestic Product, a broad measure of economic activity. A population loss of 200,000 could reduce GDP by 0.4%.
“Increasing GDP by 0.4% is very difficult and requires a great deal of effort. So the fact that a declining population could rob that much growth is huge,” he said.
The Taiwanese government has introduced a series of measures aimed at encouraging people to give birth, but with limited success.
Parents are paid a monthly stipend of NT$5,000 (US$161) for their first baby and increase for each additional baby.
Starting last year, pregnant women are eligible to take seven days off for prenatal obstetric checks.
Outside the military, and within the wider economy, the island has encouraged migrant workers to fill vacancies.
According to National Development Council statistics, Taiwan had about 670,000 migrant workers at the end of last year, or about 3% of the population.
According to the council, most of the migrant workers are employed in the manufacturing sector, with the majority coming from Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.
In the long run, Lee said, the Taiwanese government will have to reform its immigration policy to accommodate more migrant workers.
Still, some say Taiwan’s low birth rate doesn’t mean you should panic.
Alice Cheng, an associate professor of sociology at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, cautioned against reading too much, as population trends are influenced by so many factors.
She pointed out that just a few decades ago, many demographers were warning of food shortages due to a population explosion.
And even if the birth rate continues to decline, it may not be a bad thing if it reflects improvements in women’s rights.
“The expansion of education that took place in East Asia in the 70s and 80s dramatically changed the status of women. ‘ she said.
“The next thing we’re seeing globally is that as women’s education levels improved, fertility rates began to decline.”
“All these East Asian countries are really scratching their heads and trying to think about policies and interventions to boost fertility,” she added.
“But if that’s what[women]really don’t want, can you encourage them to do it?”