Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds will cover six topics to preview upcoming Bucs games, what’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponents, how Tampa Bay will win or lose, and some key matchups to watch each week.
The Buccaneers have won the NFC South for the third straight year and are in first place in the division at 2-0 after beating the Lions, 20-16, in Week 2. Tampa Bay now returns home for two home games, the first of which is against the 0-2 Denver Broncos, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, the team’s other first-round draft pick.
What’s at stake for the Buccaneers?
A win over Denver gives Tampa Bay a chance to start a season 3-0 for the first time since 2005, when the team started the season 11-5 and won its first four games. The Buccaneers have started four straight seasons 2-0 since 2021, but have yet to win three straight games in September. The fact that the team is at home and playing an underdog in the winless Broncos works in their favor.
In their last home game, Tampa Bay outshot the Washington Commanders 37-20, with the Buccaneers’ defense giving rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick, a tough time. Todd Bowles’ Defense Bowles sacked running back Daniels twice and held him to under 200 passing yards. The score was 37-13 until Daniels’ touchdown run in the final seconds of the game. Bowles’ team had an impressive performance in Detroit, holding the Lions to just 16 points in Week 2 en route to a 20-16 comeback win.
The Buccaneers offense needs to get back on track this week. Liam Cohen’s squad dominated a weak Washington defense for over 400 yards and four touchdowns, but Tampa Bay struggled against a stout Lions defense, holding them to just two touchdowns and two field goals. The Buccaneers’ ground game could be better this week against a Broncos rushing defense that is allowing 143.5 rushing yards per game.
What’s at stake for the Broncos?
Simply put, head coach and offensive genius Sean Payton has to find a way to score points with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The Broncos have only scored one rushing touchdown in two games, a paltry 13 points per game, good for 30th in the league. Nix has yet to throw a touchdown pass and has thrown two interceptions in each game.
To make matters worse, the Broncos don’t have a ground game to help their rookie quarterback. Denver ranks 27th in the league in rushing. That’s an average of just 81.5 yards per game. In fact, the Knicks are the team’s leading rusher with 60 yards, which is not good. Running back Javonte Williams is second on the team with 40 yards on 19 carries through two games (2.1 average).
Defensively, the Broncos have playmakers, especially cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history. But Denver’s defense hasn’t been outstanding with four sacks and one interception through the first two weeks. Denver is minus-3 in turnover percentage and is at risk of falling to 0-3 if it doesn’t get more help for its rookie quarterback. Tampa Bay will be the best team the Broncos have faced so far.
If the Buccaneers want to win…
Denver’s offense is one of the worst in the league in terms of points and the run. Todd Bowles will have his team continue to plague the Broncos’ ground game and try to make Denver’s offense monotonous. The secret to success this week is having Bo Nix, who has four interceptions, no touchdown passes and completed less than 60% of his passes, beat the Buccaneers. Bowles will hound Nix with countless blitzes that turn into sacks and fake coverages that force interceptions.
Offensively, getting early leads has paid off for the team in their 2-0 start. The Buccaneers jumped out to a 13-0 lead in Week 1 against Washington and never looked back. A 6-0 lead against Detroit last week gave Tampa Bay some early momentum on the road. Denver’s offense isn’t great at coming back, so getting similar early leads against the Knicks and Broncos should give the Buccaneers an easy win. Tampa Bay is still looking for its first opening drive touchdown since the 2022 season, but that could come on Sunday.
The Buccaneers had offensive and defensive advantages against the Broncos and should have an advantage on special teams. Tampa Bay needs to improve in kick coverage and punter Jake Camarda needs to get better at punting, but at least kicker Chase McLaughlin is off to a perfect start this season, hitting 5-of-5 field goal attempts and 6-of-6 extra point attempts through two games.
For the Broncos to win…
Denver is 0-2 and doesn’t have the stars or depth of Tampa Bay, but the Broncos have won both of their games this year. They lost 26-20 on the road to Seattle but led 13-9 at halftime in Week 1. In last week’s home loss to Pittsburgh, the Steelers led 13-0 before the Broncos scored on two field goals late in the game. Despite the loss, these Broncos aren’t giving up.
If Denver wants to pull off the upset at Tampa Bay, the defense will have to force enough turnovers to win the turnover battle. Baker Mayfield threw his first interception of the season last week at Detroit, and the Broncos will need to pressure him and intercept him again in Week 3. Mayfield was sacked five times last week, and Denver doesn’t have Aidan Hutchinson or anyone close to him as a pass rusher.
Establishing the run attack will be key for the Broncos. They have struggled mightily against the run, both in terms of running and stopping the ball. Denver will need to take advantage of a Tampa Bay defense that will be without defensive tackle Vita Vea and likely Kalijah Kansey. Unfortunately, the interior of Denver’s offensive line is not a huge strength. Getting a few turnovers, finally scoring a touchdown, and then galvanizing their ground game out of thin air may be the only way the Broncos can win.
Key opponents for the Buccaneers’ offense
Buccaneers offensive line vs. Broncos defensive line
Tampa Bay’s offensive line struggled in every phase of last week’s 20-16 win over Detroit. The Buccaneers couldn’t run the ball in Week 2, with Bucky Irving and Rachard White combining for just 40 yards on 17 attempts (2.4 average), while quarterback Baker Mayfield ran five times for 34 yards and was the leading rusher, evading a quarterback guard for an 11-yard touchdown. Tampa Bay topped the 100-yard mark in Week 1, and to get the run game going again, they’ll need to step up against a weak offensive line from the Broncos.
On the Buccaneers offensive line, it’s unclear whether starting right tackle Luke Goedeke will return after missing last week with a concussion. He must first pass a concussion test, but if he doesn’t, Justin Skur, who allowed three sacks last week, will again start at right tackle against Denver.
The Buccaneers allowed five sacks as a team last week and will need to improve this week to give Mayfield more time to throw from a cleaner pocket. Denver’s two best pass rushers are blitz linebacker Jonathan Cooper (two sacks) and Alex Singleton, who has recorded the Broncos’ only interception this season. Denver’s defensive linemen aren’t much of a threat when it comes to the pass rush, and they aren’t very good at stopping the run either.
A key matchup for the Buccaneers’ defense
Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby vs. Broncos RT Frank Crum
Todd Bowles got a first-hand look at what Lions Pro Bowl defensive end Aidan Hutchinson can do against backup right tackles in last week’s win at Detroit. Hutchinson recorded 4.5 sacks and three against Justin Skul, who filled in for an injured Luke Goedeke. He couldn’t stop Detroit’s game-breakers, but hopefully that will happen this week with his own top edge rusher, outside linebacker Yaya Diaby, facing the Broncos.
Denver will be without right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who sprained his MCL last week and will miss at least four weeks. Rookie Frank Crum, an undrafted free agent out of Wyoming, will likely fill in. Facing a fast, powerful edge rusher like Diaby, Crum could be in for a very long day similar to what Skull experienced last Sunday against Detroit.
Diaby has yet to record a sack, but that could change Sunday against a disappointing opponent. Diaby recorded a team-high five pressures in Week 1 against Washington and a team-high seven pressures last week against Detroit, both personal records. Last year’s top sack also recorded two quarterback hits on Jared Goff. Diaby could have a great game Sunday against Denver.