Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucks game with six quick-hit topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponents, what could lead to a win or loss for Tampa Bay, and some key matchups to watch each week.
The Bucks improved to 5-7 after the next game. 21-18 victory On Sunday, they lost 1-11 against the Panthers in a rain-soaked game. 6-6 Falcons They maintained their lead in the NFC South with a 13-8 victory in a low-scoring game against the Jets in New York.
What’s at stake for the Bucks?
Tampa Bay got a long-awaited victory over an inferior team in Carolina, ending their losing streak at two. The fact that it was only a three point difference wasn’t all that impressive. Still, the Bucks head to Atlanta with momentum to take on the Falcons in a must-win game for Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes to fade. The team must win at least four of its last five games, including all three remaining division games, to finish 9-8 and have a chance to advance to the postseason. A loss to Atlanta would put the Bucks at 5-8 and put the Falcons in the driver’s seat with a perfect 4-0 record in the NFC South.
Bucs OLB Shaq Barrett and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo courtesy of USA Today
If the Bucs lose this game, Todd Bowles’ role as head coach will be in jeopardy. He probably won’t be fired during the season, but if he doesn’t make progress in the win/loss column or in the postseason, Tampa Bay’s head coach will probably be replaced after the season. And a loss could mean the Bucks get Baker Mayfield and the team loses to the Falcons and is eliminated from the playoffs. Tampa Bay may want to see what backup quarterback Kyle Trask, a former second-round pick, can do for the team going forward.
However, if the Bucks win, they will regain first place in the NFC South. Tampa Bay and Atlanta have the same overall and divisional record, but the Bucs would earn a tiebreaker with a win against their common opponents, Minnesota and Tennessee. The Bucks’ playoff hopes will remain for at least a week.
What’s at stake for the Falcons?
The Falcons head coach is in need of a breakthrough season after Arthur Smith went seven to 10 seasons. This year’s Atlanta team, which currently has a 6-6 record, has a chance to win the NFC South and move him away from the spotlight. This year, Smith’s running attack in Atlanta began with a two-headed monster in first-round pick Bijan Robinson and reliable rambler Tyler Allgaier. The Falcons are running for a win and have established a dominant ground game in their last two games to defeat the Bucks.
![Falcons head coach Arthur Smith](https://www.pewterreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Smith-Arthur-Bucs-Falcons-sideline-RJS-300x200.jpg)
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
The Falcons as an organization have been known for choking for over a decade now. From blowing a 28-3 lead to Tom Brady’s Patriots in the Super Bowl to dropping many regular-season games in the fourth quarter, Atlanta has struggled to shut out games and take the lead. have to do a good job. The Falcons have a chance to sweep the Bucks and all but eliminate them from contention for the NFC South title with a home win on Sunday. Will I be able to do it or will I suffocate again?
If the Falcons lose to the Bucs and fail to win the NFC South and make the playoffs for the third year in a row, there’s a good chance Smith will lose his job. Atlanta owner Arthur Blank has shown plenty of patience with Smith, but three consecutive losing seasons is not a sign of progress, and most NFL owners wouldn’t tolerate that in today’s game. Like Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles, Smith could coach for life in Atlanta on Sunday.
If the Bucks win…
![Bucks Rb Rathard White and Falcons S Jesse Bates III](https://www.pewterreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/White-Rachaad-Jessie-Bates-Bucs-Falcons-run-300x200.jpg)
Bucks RB Rathard White and Falcons S Jesse Bates III – Photo courtesy of USA Today
In Week 7, Tampa Bay struggled to run the ball, with Rashard White totaling just 34 yards on the ground. The Bucs’ running game has clearly shown improvement over the second half of the season, with White rushing for 100 yards in a loss to Indianapolis two weeks ago and 84 yards in last week’s win over Carolina. A more balanced offense allows the Bucs’ play-action passing game to work even better, taking some of the pressure off quarterback Baker Mayfield. Rushing for over 100 yards will be the key to victory for the Bucs.
Defensively, the Falcons were able to move the ball at will against the Bucks in Week 7, but three fumbles by Desmond Ridder in the red zone (all recovered by the Bucks) cost the Falcons a blowout loss. It didn’t happen. Tampa Bay needs to continue producing takeaways, but it also needs to produce more three-and-outs. If they can slow down the early downtime of the Falcons’ ground game and create situations in the third and beyond, that would be a big step.
Wide receiver Mike Evans and safety Antwon Winfield Jr. had great games against the Falcons, the last time both teams met. But that wasn’t enough to beat Atlanta. In addition to Evans and Winfield being sensational again against Atlanta, Tampa Bay needs another player to emerge and become a star on both offense and defense. Evans and Winfield can’t continue to be a one-man gang offensively and defensively, especially for the Bucks, who currently sit atop the NFC South.
If the Falcons win…
![Bucs S. Antwon Winfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder](https://www.pewterreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/rsz_usatsi_21711672-1-300x200.jpg)
Bucs S. Antwon Winfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo courtesy of USA Today
In Week 7, the Falcons defeated the Bucs not only by rushing for 156 yards but also by making some timely big plays in quarterback Desmond Ridder’s passing game. These play-action opportunities exist because of Atlanta’s success on the ground, and 100+ yards rushing is paramount for the Falcons to win. Atlanta’s leading rusher, Bijan Robinson, was sick in the first matchup and could barely play. However, he has over 1,000 total yards and six total touchdowns, making it difficult to contain all three downs.
Ridder threw the ball well against the Bucs, making a well-timed scramble and running for the Falcons’ only touchdown. But he also had three fumbles in the red zone, two of them at the goal line. If he hadn’t committed the turnovers, the Falcons might have defeated the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Ridder will need to focus on protecting the ball in Sunday’s rematch.
Defensively, the Falcons have one of the stingiest defenses in the red zone, which helped hold the Bucks to just 13 points in their first game earlier this season. Atlanta’s defense, led by Calais Campbell, does a great job of stuffing the run and putting pressure on the passer without having to load the box or blitz. That means the Falcons can typically drop him 6-7 in coverage, which usually leads to a field goal because the field is truncated in the red zone. If Atlanta can force Tampa Bay to score more field goals than touchdowns, that’s a recipe for success.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ offense
Bucks WR Mike Evans vs. Falcons CB AJ Terrell
![Bucks Wr Mike Evans and Falcons Cb Aj Terrell](https://www.pewterreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Evans-Mike-AJ-Terrell-Bucs-Falcons-TD-300x200.jpg)
Bucks WR Mike Evans and Falcons CB AJ Terrell – Photo courtesy of USA Today
In the Bucs’ Week 7 loss to the Falcons in Tampa, Mike Evans had six catches for 82 yards and one touchdown, but the Bucs offense put just 13 points on the scoreboard. So it wasn’t enough. Before Sunday’s big game against the Panthers, Evans had done more damage against the Falcons than any other NFL team. Evans has 91 career catches for 1,399 yards (15.4 average) and 11 touchdowns against Atlanta.
Evans, who caught seven passes for 162 yards and one touchdown against Carolina, has slightly improved his career against the Panthers with 99 receptions for 1,458 yards (14.7 yards per game) and 11 touchdowns. That needs to change significantly on Sunday. Evans will need a performance similar to what he had against the Panthers in Atlanta. Like Carolina, Atlanta has a lot of man-to-man coverage, so Evans will have plenty of opportunities to win one-on-one with Terrell.
Evans has gotten the best out of Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell over the years, and that should continue this week. The Bucs were hoping another player on their offense would step up consistently throughout the season and take on the superhero mantle alongside Evans. Chris Godwin was expected to make $20 million per season, but that hasn’t been the case as Godwin has struggled to consistently produce in Tampa Bay. So until another player takes on a true complementary role in the Bucks’ offense, Evans will have to remain a superhero and save the day once again in Atlanta.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ defense
Bucks DT Kariya Kancie vs. Falcons LG Matthew Bergeron
![Bucks Dt Kariya Kanshi and Irv Devin White](https://www.pewterreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Kancey-Calijah-Devin-White-Bucs-Falcons-tackle-300x200.jpg)
Bucks DT Kariya Kancey and ILB Devin White – Photo courtesy of USA Today
When Kaliyah Kancie played against the Falcons in Week 7, it was essentially the second full game of his NFL career. In the 16-13 loss to Tampa Bay, he finished with one tackle and two modest quarterback pressures. Since that game, Cuncey has recorded two of his three sacks this season and 18 pressures, including four QB hits. For the Bucks to have any chance of beating the Falcons in Atlanta, Kancey will need to put on a dominant performance.
In last week’s 21-18 win over Carolina, Cuncey had five pressures, including two tackles and two QB hits. He will play against both Atlanta guards, Pro Bowler Chris Lindstrom and Falcons left guard Matthew Bergeron. He had four sacks and 25 pressures, both team highs.
He will need to go head-to-head with Lindstrom and hold his ground against Atlanta’s best offensive player, but then he will need to utilize his superior athleticism against Bergeron. If Cuncey faces Bergeron, he needs to win those reps. This is the kind of game that really needs Cuncey to take over and make some big plays against the run and pass for the Bucs to have any chance of winning in Atlanta.