Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucks game with six quick-hit topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponents, what could lead to a win or loss for Tampa Bay, and some key matchups to watch each week.
The Bucks lost 31-26 at home to the Falcons on Sunday, dropping their record to 4-4 on the year. Tampa Bay now travels to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes’ undefeated Chiefs at Arrowhead on Monday Night Football. After a promising start with a 3-1 record, the Bucks have lost three of their last four games, due in large part to poor defensive play.
What’s at stake for the Bucks?
Bucs LB Labonte David – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay hasn’t had success in prime time this year, losing 36-30 in overtime to Atlanta on Thursday Night Football in Week 5 and losing 41-4 at home vs. Baltimore on Monday Night Football in Week 7. He lost by 31. Loss at Kansas State. City seems more likely, especially given Tampa Bay’s struggles on defense. If that happens, the Bucks will have lost three straight and will be below .500 with a record of 4 wins and 5 losses. Next up is a tough test in Tampa Bay against another team competing in Super Bowl LVIII, the San Francisco 49ers. Another loss would send the Bucks into the bye week with a 4-6 record.
Somehow, Tampa Bay needs to pull off an upset in one of the next two games. Tampa Bay needs to finish one game ahead of Atlanta in the final standings to win the NFC South, as the Falcons dominated the Bucks and won the NFC South tiebreaker. That could be a tall order, especially if he has to come back from potentially four to six holes after a bye week. If the Bucks are 4-6, it will be difficult to reach 10 wins, and the team will need to go 6-1 to end the season. And if Atlanta also goes 10-7, the tiebreaker will give the Falcons the division title, and Tampa Bay hopes that 10 wins will be enough to earn a wild card.
Perhaps more importantly, if the Bucks’ defense doesn’t fix their coverage issues and starts stealing the ball away, the possibility of a strong finish could be moot. Tampa Bay’s offense will be hampered by being without star receiver Chris Godwin for the rest of the season and Mike Evans for at least the next two games. The Chiefs’ defense is one of the best in the league, so it may be difficult for Kansas City to score 24 points like the Bucks did last week. Head coach Todd Bowles needs his team to play better to boost morale, win or lose on Monday Night Football.
What’s at stake for the Chiefs?
Bucks RT Tristan Wirfs and Chiefs DT Chris Jones – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
The Chiefs may have a perfect 7-0 record this year, but everything wasn’t perfect in Kansas City. quarterback patrick mahomes In fact, he has more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (8) this year, but that could change if Tampa Bay comes to town against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. There is enough. Mahomes will be without his top receiver in the passing game with Laci Rice out for the rest of the year with a knee injury. Speedy rookie Xavier Worthy, the team’s first-round pick, showed flashes of brilliance, leading the Chiefs with three touchdown catches. However, the Chiefs’ offense had to transition from a wide-open passing attack that featured receivers to one that featured tight ends.
Travis Kelce remains a reliable target and Mahomes’ go-to player with 38 catches for 335 yards and one touchdown. Noah Gray is also a great complementary option at tight end. He caught 17 passes for 208 yards, averaging 12.2 yards compared to Kelce’s 8.8 yards average. Kareem Hunt did a great job of picking up the slack for the injured Isaiah Pacheco and bringing balance to Andy Reid’s offense.
This year, the Chiefs have been winning with defense. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was fifth in total defense (295 average) and fifth in scoring defense, allowing just 17.6 points per game. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is one of the most destructive pass rushers in the game and will get help up front from athletic defensive end George Karlaftis. The two combined for six sacks. Linebackers Leo Chenal and Nick Bolton are athletic playmakers, and Kansas City has some great undiscovered players in its secondary. But Spagnuolo’s play calling is top-notch and a big reason why the Chiefs are undefeated.
If the Bucks win…
Bucks CB Zion McCollum – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Tampa Bay has the daunting task of pulling off a prime-time upset of undefeated Kansas City at Arrowhead. The Bucks will need to run a ball-control offense and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline to limit the Chiefs’ offensive possessions. Getting an early lead would not only increase the Bucs’ chances of winning, but it would also quiet the Arrowhead crowd to some extent. Arrowhead is at its loudest during prime-time games. The offensive line must avoid false starts to keep up on downs and distance.
Offensive coordinator Liam Cohen must stay in place as the play-caller and continue to rack up yards and points like he did in the first game last week without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The only problem is that Kansas City’s defense is much stouter than Atlanta’s. Baker Mayfield’s command is another challenge, as he has thrown a total of seven interceptions over the past three weeks compared to 10 touchdown passes.
More importantly, Todd Bowles’ defense needs to hold the team together. The Bucks need to rush the passer and get Patrick Mahomes on the ground, or at least be effective when he’s off. Pass coverage has been the team’s Achilles heel this year, especially in the middle of the field where linebackers Lavonte David and KJ Britt have struggled mightily, as have safeties Jordan Whitehead and Antwan Winfield Jr. Kansas City and Tampa Bay’s defenses will have to create takeaways and win the turnover battle to have any chance of pulling an upset.
If the Chiefs win…
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
The Chiefs rarely lose, and when they do, it’s usually not at home and not in prime time. The crowd at Arrowhead can act as a 12th man and help the defense by causing false starts for the offense with the noise the fans make. Taking an early lead against a Bucks team missing its top two weapons will be beneficial and will get the crowd excited. This could be the reinvigorated Patrick Mahomes needs to finally throw more touchdowns than interceptions this year. Tampa Bay’s pass defense has allowed nine passing TDs to Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins in the last two games.
Mahomes needs to avoid sacks and look for Xavier Worthy downfield. Zion McCollum is the only left cornerback for Tampa Bay, so lining up Worthy on that side with either Josh Hayes or Tyreke Funderburk will be key. And only McCollum has the speed to keep up with Worthy. Tampa Bay’s defense has been terrible in pass coverage in the middle of the field, so this could be a big day for Kansas City tight ends Travis Kelce and Noah Gray.
Defensively, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will need to load up the box to slow down Tampa Bay’s run game and force Baker Mayfield to pass to win. Mayfield can do it without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but he also tends to throw interceptions. If Tampa Bay’s young receivers don’t read the coverage correctly and run the wrong selection route, Mayfield’s blitz could not only lead to a sack, but also an interception, as quick throws can lead to interceptions. There is.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ offense
Bucks TE Cade Otton vs. Chiefs LB Leo Chenal
Bucks TE Cade Otton – Photo courtesy of USA Today
In the absence of wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, tight end Cade Otton has emerged as Baker Mayfield’s go-to guy. Otton has 17 catches for 181 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games. He followed up his eight-catch, 100-yard game against Baltimore with a nine-reception, 81-yard, two-touchdown performance against Atlanta on National Tight End Day. Otton received the most targets in the Bucs’ arsenal in the loss to the Falcons and will likely see plenty of action again in Kansas City on Monday Night Football.
When he’s not blitzing as a quarterback, the athletic Chenal is one of the best coverage linebackers in the NFL. He posted a team-high Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 92.5 in the win over San Francisco two weeks ago, but did not play in coverage last week against the Raiders. Chenal has been the Chiefs’ top coverage defender this season with a PFF grade of 89.3.
Kansas City won’t necessarily put Chenal on Otton on every play. The Chiefs used multiple defenders to slow down George Kittle two weeks ago and kept Brock Bowers in check last week. In addition to Chenal, safeties Justin Reed, Brian Cook and Chamari Conner will also be in attendance. However, Otton will likely cover the Bucks’ offense and win and get points down the field.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ defense
Bucs defensive front vs. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay’s defense has had inconsistent pressure and sack production over the last two games at the rushing 4 and when bringing pressures. Todd Bowles’ defense has 21 sacks on the year, but just four in the last two games. Mahomes is the NFL’s best escape artist other than Lamar Jackson and has only been sacked 12 times this year. He also completed 34 scrambles for 139 yards (4.1 average) and one touchdown.
The Bucs absolutely have to stay in the rush lane when trying to sack Mahomes, as Mahomes is extremely elusive and one of the best quarterbacks to improvise once he crosses the line of scrimmage. Mahomes won’t be afraid to push the ball and run, especially against man coverage where most defenders are focused on covering receivers and tight ends with their backs to the line of scrimmage.
What makes Mahomes even more dangerous is the fact that he can extend plays by breaking through containment and continuing to look for open receivers downfield. Tampa Bay’s secondary will need to get players involved in coverage because Mahomes will never really be done playing. Speedy defensive tackle Kaliyah Kansi and outside linebacker Yahya Diaby have been disappointing this year in terms of their lack of sack numbers. Cuncey and Diaby combined for just three sacks, and they made several by showing up in the Chiefs’ backfield and getting close to Mahomes, forcing either a sack fumble or an errant throw that could have led to an interception. We need to force takeaway.
