Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucks game with six quick-hit topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponents, what could lead to a win or loss for Tampa Bay, and some key matchups to watch each week.
The Bucks improved to 7-6 on the season and regained first place in the NFC South from the Falcons, who lost four straight and fell to 6-7. Tampa Bay’s next games are two road games at Los Angeles and Dallas, followed by two home games against Carolina and New Orleans to conclude the season. At 8-5, the Chargers are the only team with a winning record like this. The Bucks will be down until the end.
What’s at stake for the Bucks?
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and DB Tykie Smith – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay is on the rise after the bye week. With three consecutive wins, their fate is in their hands. If the Bucs win, they will clinch their fourth consecutive NFC South title and an automatic home playoff game with it. Tampa Bay benefits from a much easier schedule as a result of the bye, and Los Angeles presents the toughest challenge as it is the only remaining team with a winning record.
The Bucs have been plagued by injuries all season, and suffered a major blow last Sunday when star safety Antwon Winfield Jr. suffered a knee injury that caused him to miss several games. Todd Bowles’ secondary is already without starting strong safety Jordan Whitehead, who is on injured reserve after straining his pectoral muscle in New York, and replacement Mike Edwards, who strained his hamstring in Carolina. Ta. Tampa Bay is lacking strength at the safety position, and with starter KJ Britt (foot) and backup JJ Russell (hamstring) missing last week’s game, they are also short at linebacker.
The Bucks’ defense has improved since the bye, allowing just 14.3 points per game, but Liam Cohen’s offense still leads the team. Tampa Bay is averaging 27.9 points per game, which ranks fifth in the NFL. And the offense relies on a dominant performance from this year’s O-line and a rushing attack that ranks eighth in the league with an average of 138.8 yards per game. The Chargers have the stingiest defense in the league, and Los Angeles ranks first in scoring defense, allowing just 15.9 points per game.
What’s at stake for the Chargers?
Chargers QB Justin Herbert Photo Credit: USA Today
After starting 7-3, the Chargers have lost two of their last three games, but those losses have come at the hands of AFC powerhouse teams in the Ravens and Chiefs. Los Angeles’ only win in the past three games came against Atlanta, where the Chargers’ defense robbed Kirk Cousins four times. Los Angeles, currently 8-5, needs to secure a few more wins to earn a spot in the AFC wild-card playoffs. The Chargers have already conceded the AFC West title to the Chiefs after being swept by Kansas City.
LA’s defense is in control under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers boast a top-ranked scoring defense, ranking 11th in total defense (323.7 yards allowed per game), 8th in passing defense (206.1 yards allowed per game), and tied for 14th in rushing defense (206.1 yards allowed per game). 117.6 yards allowed per game). . Harbaugh’s game plan is to run the ball on offense, pass the ball sparingly, and play great defense. It’s worked out so far, and Los Angeles is in great position to make the playoffs in Harbaugh’s first year back in the NFL.
Quarterback Justin Herbert is having a very strong year with 14 touchdown passes and one interception, but suffered a foot and ankle injury in last Sunday’s 19-17 loss to Kansas City. . He is expected to play, but leading rusher J.K. Dobbins, who is on injured reserve, will be out, and leading receiver rookie Rad McConkie could also be sidelined with shoulder and knee injuries. Running backs Gus Edwards and Quentin Johnston will be expected to pick up the slack and help Herbert pick up yards and put points on the scoreboard.
If the Bucks win…
Bucks NCB Tykie Smith – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay needs Los Angeles to score a touchdown, not a field goal, to win. The Bucks are averaging 27.9 points per game this year and have averaged just 28 points in their past three wins. The stability of Liam Cohen’s attack, which lights up the scoreboard, is remarkable. If Baker Mayfield and the others can keep up that pace, it may be difficult for the Chargers to catch up. Los Angeles lacks an explosive, powerful offense, so taking an early lead could go a long way toward the team’s fourth straight win.
Baker’s Mayfield has thrown four interceptions in the past two games, after previously not throwing a pick in three straight games. He’ll need to do a better job of protecting the football on the road against the Chargers’ opportunistic defense, which has recorded 39 sacks and 13 interceptions this season. Establishing a consistent ground attack could take some of the pressure off Mayfield.
Defensively, the Bucs finally recorded an interception last week, honoring rookie nickel back Tykie Smith in his return after missing three games with a knee injury. With this, the record for consecutive games played without being drafted ended at six. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has only been picked off once and hasn’t thrown an interception in 11 straight games. If the Bucs can win the turnover battle and force Herbert to make a mistake or two, they should be able to get a win on the West Coast on Sunday.
If the Chargers win…
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Photo courtesy of USA Today
As mentioned earlier, Los Angeles boasts the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense, allowing just under 16 points per game. Tampa Bay has only been held to less than 20 points in one game this year, losing 26-7 to Denver in Week 3. So something has to give. If the Chargers’ defense can put pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield and force him to make mistakes, it will go a long way in keeping the Bucs off the scoreboard.
Los Angeles has allowed only two teams this year to score more than 20 points: 27 points in a 34-27 win over Cincinnati and 30 points in a 30-23 loss to Baltimore. This is important because the Chargers’ offense isn’t all that dynamic to begin with. Leading rusher J.K. Dobbins is on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkie is questionable with shoulder and knee injuries, factors that could make points extremely valuable for Los Angeles. For the best chance of a win, the Chargers will have to hope for a series of low-scoring defensive slugging plays.
The Chargers have a definite advantage on special teams, having a very good punter in JK Scott, who averages 46.9 yards per game and averages 42.1 yards per game. He completed 25 punts within the 20 punt range with just three touchbacks. Field goal kicker Cameron Dicker has been extremely reliable this year, making just two errors, shooting 93.3% from the field and 88.5% from extra points. Return specialist Delius Davis could be available against Tampa Bay, as he is averaging 29.5 yards on kick returns and 13.6 yards on punt returns. The Bucks’ coverage unit has been decent, but it hasn’t been that great this year.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ offense
Bucks OT Tristan Wirfs, Luke Goedeke vs. Chargers OLB Tuli Tuipult, Khalil Mack
Chargers OLB Khalil Mack – Photo courtesy of USA Today
The Chargers have a pair of strong pass rushers in future Hall of Famer Khalil Mack and former second-round pick Tuli Tuipurut. The two have combined for 12.5 sacks, led by Tuipult’s 7.5 QB captures. At 33 years old, Mack is still a formidable pass rusher and one of the best defenders in the Chargers’ defense, according to Pro Football Focus. Mack has a PFF grade of 91.7 and leads Los Angeles with 39 pressures. Tuipult is second on the team with 32 QB pressures this year and is coming into his own as a pass rusher. Playing opposite Mack certainly helps.
Last week, Baker Mayfield was sacked four times, two of which were due to him holding the ball too long. Mayfield had trouble staying in the pocket after the second quarter, which led to two interceptions and a fumble, including a fumble when running back Sean Tucker allowed a sack. Bucs offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke will have their hands full with both Mack and Tuipult on Sunday.
According to Pro Football Focus, Wirfs has yet to allow a sack in 12 games this year, while Goedeke has allowed just one sack in nine games. Together, they allowed just 20 pressures, Wirfs nine and Goedeke 11. As if Mack and Tuipult weren’t enough to contend with, the Chargers also have great depth at outside linebacker in Bud Dupree and Joey Bosa. This year, he battled hip and back injuries. Dupree had five sacks in 2024 and Bosa was at QB four times.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ defense
Bucs CB Jamel Dean and Zion McCollum vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnston
Bucks CB Jamel Dean – Photo by Cliff Welch P/R
Johnston hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft pick a year ago and has yet to become a viable WR1 in Los Angeles. After an eventful rookie year in which he caught 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns, Johnston is expected to surpass those numbers in 2024 with 29 catches for 414 yards with four regular season games remaining. It’s about to turn. Where Johnston shined this year was by scoring a career-best and team-high seven touchdowns.
Johnston’s lack of development last year led the Chargers to draft Ladd McConkie near the top of the second round. The Georgia rookie has been Justin Herbert’s favorite target this season, leading Los Angeles with 58 catches for 815 yards and four touchdowns. McConkey missed last week’s game against the Chiefs with an injury and is doubtful for this week’s game against the Bucks. So keep an eye out for Johnston potentially being the primary receiving threat in Week 15 as well. He just came off one of his best games of the year in a 19-17 loss to Kansas City, catching five passes for 48 yards and a touchdown.
Johnston primarily plays on the left side of the formation and will face off against cornerback Jamel Dean quite a bit on Sunday. At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, Dean has enough size to compete with 6-foot-3, 215-pound receivers. But Johnston will also be matched up against left cornerback Zion McCollum on the right side. McCollum has struggled against physical receivers like San Francisco’s Jauan Jennings, who gained over 100 yards in last week’s 23-20 win at Tampa Bay. 10.
