space x
starbase, texas–It’s finally lit.
probably.
SpaceX completed final preparations for the Starship and Super Heavy Vehicle on Saturday, restacking them with a flight shutdown system that activates if the rocket veers off course.
Then, on Sunday, the company completed its final launch readiness review and cleared the rocket for takeoff.
The Starship is therefore almost ready for its historic first flight test. But that doesn’t necessarily mean smoke and fire when the launch window opens Monday morning at 7:00 AM local time in South Texas (1200 UTC). You should really set your expectations accordingly.
First, there is the weather issue. SpaceX said on Sunday that conditions at the launch site appear fine for launch, but that there are concerns about higher wind shear in the atmosphere. It occurs when shifting, and if the shear is high enough, it can tear the structure of the rocket.
Beyond the weather, this will be the first launch attempt of the rocket’s super-heavy first stage, and the first time the Starship’s upper stage will fly in a stacked configuration. Counting both stages, there are 39 Raptor rocket engines, all of which are carefully monitored before takeoff. If one of the thousands of sensors detects an erroneous temperature, pressure, or other variable reading at the wrong time, the launch attempt will be invalidated.
SpaceX has conducted multiple fueling and stationary launch tests of these vehicles, but this is still a completely new launch system. The odds of getting to T-0 and taking off within his 150-minute launch window on Monday are probably somewhere in the ballpark at or below 50%, weather permitting.
Once the rocket flies, that’s where the fun begins. No human has ever seen a rocket with such a powerful or so many first stage engines in flight. It’s big, loud, and has a lot of flames. If all goes well, upward movement is also included.
Opinions are divided as to how successful this flight will be for Superheavy and Starship. SpaceX founder Elon Musk says he has a 50% chance of a successful launch, but I think he’s probably intentionally lowering expectations. he got good at it. On the eve of the Falcon 1’s first rocket launch in March 2006, Musk told reporters he had a 90% chance of the rocket reaching orbit.
space x
His first three Falcon 1 launches failed.
Since then, however, SpaceX has gotten pretty good at launching rockets. On its debut flight in 2010, the Falcon 9 reached orbit. In 2018, so was the Falcon Heavy. All three of his different versions of the Starship prototype, Starhopper, SN5, and SN8, have since successfully launched. So, by my calculations, the last six of his “new” rockets SpaceX debuted were all more or less successfully launched.
It would be pretty amazing if Superheavy and Starship’s upper stage followed suit.
Starship Integrated Flight Test.
