Researchers have identified two distinct events associated with Helen’s landfall. The first was an actual landfall along the coast of Florida. The second was heavy rain on the North Carolina-Tennessee border. This rain occurred on the back of previous heavy rains caused by a stagnant cold front meeting moisture carried north by the hurricane’s edge. These two areas were examined separately.
changed climate
These two regions are estimated to have experienced a 10% increase in rainfall due to climate change. It may not seem like much, but it adds up to a lot of money. Climate change is estimated to have increased rainfall by 40% along the Florida coast for both the two-day and three-day periods centered on maximum precipitation. In the southern Appalachians, rainfall is estimated to have increased by 70%.
In the IRIS dataset, the probability that a storm of Helen’s wind strength will strike land near its origin is an approximately 1-in-130-year event. Climate change has changed that, so much so that it is now expected to return once every 50 years or so. The higher sea surface temperatures that fuel Helen are estimated to have become 500 times more likely due to climate change.
Overall, the researchers estimate that rainfall events like Helen’s landfall are currently expected to occur about once every seven years, although there is significant uncertainty (3 to 25 years). In the Appalachian region, rainfall events of this magnitude have never been recorded, but thanks to climate warming, it is now likely to become a once-in-70-year event (with uncertainties ranging from 20 to 3,000 years). (between).
“Taken together, these findings indicate that climate change is making rainfall totals and wind speeds more intense, strengthening conditions that favor the most powerful hurricanes like Helen,” the researchers said. concludes.
