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As Russia’s barbaric attack on Ukraine enters its second year on Friday, President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin clashed verbally this week in a speech marking the first anniversary of the start of the war. Biden shamed Putin into ending the war, threw economic threats and continued his approach of providing more security assistance to Kiev, but Putin shocked Washington with nuclear warnings, the West dismissed Adding meat to my previous warning that you should now think twice before doing.
During a surprise visit to Kiev on Monday, Biden announced $500 million in security assistance, adding to the $196 billion the US has already provided or promised to Kiev. Reflecting the Pentagon’s stated goal of “undermining” Russia militarily and economically, the President confirmed his administration’s policy of “stressing Russia’s economic lifelines” through sanctions, He threatened to increase the already “unprecedented costs” to Moscow.
Putin, a KGB-trained intelligence officer and interpersonal expert who prides himself on being able to “feel” an audience, has made his long-standing claim that Russia is under attack by the West. It took advantage of the Biden threat by pushing a populist narrative. “They want to make [Russian] people suffer [with sanctions]’ he warned in a speech that lasted almost two hours. You can keep threats away from your borders. “
Putin Issues Nuclear Warning to US, Threatens to Resume Weapons Testing
In one of the most important speeches of his career, Putin announced a moratorium on Russia’s participation in the nuclear START treaty. The treaty limits the number of nuclear warheads on deployed missile launchers, and both Russian and Washington strategic bombers limit the number of delivery platforms. intercontinental ballistic missiles, etc. This step will allow Russia to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. In addition, we will eliminate inspection programs that allow both Russian and US experts to visit each other’s nuclear facilities. Putin also warned that a new strategic system could be put on combat duty and that Russia could resume nuclear testing, something Moscow had not done since 1990.
Putin’s plan for victory in Ukraine is to outmaneuver and outlast the enemy, a centuries-old Russian wartime strategy. Culturally, Russia has a very high tolerance for casualties. In World War II she lost 25 million civilians. Current losses are estimated at 200,000 casualties. Russia’s population is more than three times that of Ukraine’s, so Putin is ready to keep throwing himself at the issue. Putin has mobilized an additional 500,000 troops since the start of the war. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently announced that he will increase the size of the Russian army by 30% from 1.15 million to 1.5 million by 2026.
Putin’s Pivot in Ukraine Causes Permanent War in Europe
Putin recognizes Ukraine fatigue is growing within the United States. rising. He is also aware of Pentagon concerns about depleting U.S. arms stockpiles as a result of the mass exodus of arms to Ukraine as China becomes more belligerent with regards to Taiwan. These factors have led Putin to believe that Russia will outlast Ukraine as the Russian military continues to exterminate Ukrainians and destroy Ukraine’s energy, industrial and agricultural bases.
By suspending Russia’s participation in the START Treaty, Putin is showing his willingness to use nuclear weapons. In Tuesday’s speech, Putin noted a direct link between the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s nuclear posture. Putin’s verbal nuclear warnings followed an implied threat posed by a Russian strategic bomber that flew near Alaska last week. Command intercepted eight Russian fighters, including nuclear-capable bombers and fighters.
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Putin’s move to potentially dismantle the entire nuclear weapons control regime on which the world has relied for decades for strategic stability has been disproportionately escalated by Western analysts. It has been seen. Washington wants to contain the conflict in Ukraine, but the Putin administration does not see this as limiting. Because it means one NATO ends up in an enemy country on Russia’s doorstep.
The Kremlin is taking Washington’s stated goal of undermining Russia at face value. The West wants “to inflict strategic defeat on us and sneak into our nuclear facilities,” Putin said on Tuesday. Washington has been training Ukrainian forces in Western war tactics since 2014. And over the past year, it has armed Kiev with top-of-the-line high-tech weaponry, enhanced interoperability with NATO, and provided real-time intelligence. Acquisition targeting to help Ukrainians.
If the war of attrition cannot be won, Putin will either let NATO bleed Russia militarily and economically, or use the nuclear card to reverse the battlefield dynamics, stop the bleeding, and allow NATO to expand into Russia’s ideas. We believe that you may choose to either prevent Its strategic security perimeter. The risk of Putin using the nuclear card in Ukraine increases as the conflict progresses and Moscow and Washington move up the escalation ladder. It is unreasonable to expect Putin to drain Western weapons and drive Russia out.
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Putin does not want to use his nuclear card and Russia will almost certainly not launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland. But Russian military doctrine envisages the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield to stem an escalating conflict. The strategic disconnect between Moscow and Washington is that Russia sees escalation as de-escalating and defensive, while NATO sees it as strategic escalation. Russian and U.S. leaders need to quickly understand that conflicting views and a proxy war over Ukraine can lead to devastating consequences.
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