For the first time since November 2022, pending home sales fell in March, registering a month-on-month decline of 5.2%. data Released Thursday by National Real Estate Association(NAR).
The monthly decline saw the pending home sales index drop 23.3% year-on-year to 78.9. An index of 100 equals the level of contract activity in 2001.
“The lack of housing inventory is a major constraint on sales growth,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun in a statement. It’s still happening, with 28% of homes selling above list price, and limited housing supply is not meeting demand nationwide.”
Looking ahead to the second half of 2023 and beyond, the NAR said it expects the economy to continue adding jobs, but at a slower pace. %, and housing starts are forecast to decline 7.3% year-on-year to 1.44 million in 2023.
“Sales in the second half should be significantly better than in the first half as job growth continues and more favorable mortgage rates are expected,” Yoon said. “New home sales have already matched his pre-COVID activity in 2019 and are expected to increase in 2023, largely due to abundant inventory in the market for this segment. ”
As the NAR expects continued job growth and improved interest rates, it also expects existing home sales to improve steadily in the coming months, but still see a 9.3% year-on-year decline for 2023 as a whole. 4.56 million units. Increased in 2024, existing home sales will return to his 5.26 million units.
In the new construction sector, the NAR expects 2023 sales to grow 4.5% year-over-year to 670,000 units, as there is more new home inventory than existing home inventory.
The trade group also expects median existing home sales prices to stabilize, with the national median falling 1.8% to $379,000 in 2023 and rising 2.8% to $390,000 in 2024. I am predicting.
By region, the Northeast (66.6), Midwest (75.7) and West (59.4) all recorded pending home sales declines in March, with the Midwest recording the largest decline at 10.7%. . The South (99.6) was the only region to record a monthly increase, rising 0.2% in March. Despite this modest increase, the South also recorded the largest annual decline, down 32.2% year-on-year.
