Employees at the Airbus A350 assembly plant in Colomiers, near Toulouse, southwestern France, on December 9, 2022.
Valentine Chapuis | AFP | Getty Images
A lot has changed in the four years since one of the aviation industry’s biggest air shows took place in person.
The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated travel demand, the airline industry has laid off thousands of experienced workers, and rollercoaster demand for new jets has wreaked havoc on new aircraft production rates. .
Through all of this, the Paris Air Show, a trade fair where companies have the chance to showcase new technology, commercial and military aircraft, and close deals, has led to a surge in air travel demand as airlines are hungry for jets to meet the demand. will resume on Monday. . The problem is, BoeingAirbus and its numerous suppliers can catch up.
“This is putting pressure on the order book, creating upward momentum in used aircraft lease prices and forcing airlines to compromise,” said Andy Cronin, chief executive of aircraft lessor Avolon. .
Aviation analytics firm IBA estimated last week that around 2,100 aircraft could be ordered during the show as airlines replace older aircraft and prepare for an increase in air travel in the future.
this year, Boeing Record large orders or pre-contracts from customers. united airlines, Saudia and Saudi Arabia’s new airline Riyadh Airways. Air India’s bulk order earlier this year included jets from both Boeing and Airbus.
Turkish Airlines’ chairman told reporters last month that the airline will order about 600 wide-body and narrow-body planes. The order is the largest ever for a single airline, but it’s unclear if it will make it in time for the show.
IBA chief economist Stuart Hatcher said in his June 15 forecast: delta airlinesMalaysia Airlines and Air France-KLM Royal Dutch Airlines are possible buyers, though the timing is not yet clear. He said AirBaltic could also consider expanding its Airbus A220 fleet.
“Given the political climate, it may be too early to make a decision about China’s expansion, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were additional orders,” Hatcher said.
A major challenge for manufacturers today is increasing production. Slots for narrow-body planes like the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 have been sold out for years. With long-haul travel returning, some airlines may be looking to expand their fleets of large long-haul jets.
But with Boeing, Airbus and a network of suppliers around the world looking to ramp up production, customers around the world are having to wait longer than expected for new aircraft. As a result, airlines have limited supply capacity and air fares remain high.
Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce told CNBC last week that he expects supply chain problems to persist through 2025.
Boeing and Airbus are scrambling to increase production rates in the coming years to meet that demand.
Production delays have also pushed up lease rates for both new and older planes as airlines look for other opportunities to increase flights.
Lease prices for the new Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft were around $350,000 a month in July, up from $305,000 in January 2020, when the pandemic began, according to IBA estimates. . The price of the new Airbus 320 will go from his $325,000 during this period to his $355,000. Older versions are close to pre-pandemic levels.
“People just want their own jet,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of Aerodynamic Advisory.