Seoul, South Korea
CNN
—
In 2020, North Korea conducted four missile tests. By 2021, that number has doubled. In 2022, the isolated country launched more missiles than any other year on record. At one point, in one day she launched 23 missiles.
North Korea has launched more than 90 cruise and ballistic missiles so far this year, sporting a wide range of weapons as experts warn of a possible nuclear test.
The test itself is nothing new, but its high frequency indicates a significant escalation that has put the Pacific region at risk.
Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “The key takeaway for 2022 is that the word ‘test’ is no longer appropriate to talk about most of North Korea’s missile launches. They haven’t tested very many missiles lately,” he said. “Everything we’ve seen this year suggests that Kim Jong-un is serious about using his nuclear capabilities early in a conflict if necessary.”
The high-profile test could spark an arms race in Asia as neighbors build up their military power and the United States pledges to defend South Korea and Japan with “all capabilities, including nuclear weapons.”
Here’s a look back at a year of weapons and warnings and what’s next.
Of the more than 270 missile launches and nuclear tests by North Korea since 1984, more than a quarter have taken place this year, according to the Institute for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project.
More than three-quarters of that total was recorded after Kim Jong-un came to power in 2011, reflecting the dictator’s ambitions, not keeping them a secret, and ending the April pledged to develop the country’s nuclear arsenal at the “fastest possible” rate.
That lofty goal was reflected in a series of tests, including North Korea firing missiles for 36 days this year, according to CNN’s count.
“For missiles, we set daily, monthly and yearly records,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation Center for Asian Studies.
Most of these tests were cruise and ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles remain in Earth’s atmosphere and can be maneuvered like an airplane with control surfaces, while ballistic missiles glide through space before re-entering the atmosphere.
Pyongyang also launched surface-to-air and hypersonic missiles.
“North Korea is literally becoming a prominent operator of a massive missile force,” Panda said. He pointed to recent instances of North Korea firing missiles in response to military exercises or diplomatic talks by the United States and its regional allies, adding: Up too. ”
Among the ballistic missiles tested was the Hwasong-12, which flew more than 4,500 kilometers (about 2,800 miles) in October, marking North Korea’s first flight over Japan in five years. Another notable missile was the Mars-14, with an estimated range of more than 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) of hers.
To put these distances in context, the US territory of Guam is only 3,380 kilometers (2,100 miles) from North Korea.
However, one particular weapon has received international attention. This is the Hwasong-17, North Korea’s most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to date. Although it could theoretically reach the continental United States, there are still many unknowns about the missile’s ability to fire a nuclear warhead at its target.
North Korea claimed to have successfully launched Hwasong-17 for the first time in March. But South Korean and U.S. experts believe the test may have actually been an older, less advanced missile.
According to North Korean state media, Hwasong-17 was tested again in November, after which Kim Jong Un responded with a “more aggressive approach” to “an enemy seeking to destroy peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the region.” I warned that I would take action.
Since the beginning of the year, US and international observers have warned that North Korea appears to be preparing for an underground nuclear test.
Satellite images show renewed activity at North Korea’s nuclear test site, where the country has previously conducted six underground nuclear tests. It claimed its latest test was a hydrogen bomb, the most powerful weapon North Korea has ever tested.
That 2017 nuclear test had an estimated output of 160 kilotons, a measure of the amount of energy an explosion releases.
For comparison, the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan yielded only 15 and 21 kilotons respectively. The United States and Russia conducted the most explosive test in history, producing over 10,000 kilotons.
The exact number of nuclear weapons North Korea has is not clear. Federation of American Scientists experts estimate they may have assembled 20 to 30 nuclear warheads, but their ability to detonate them accurately on the battlefield has not been proven.
There were once hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in 2019 after a landmark meeting between Kim Jong Un and then-U.S. President Donald Trump, but the two leaders failed to reach a formal denuclearization deal. After walking away, they were smashed.
Since then, US-North Korea relations have deteriorated sharply, and in 2021, Chairman Kim Jong Un announced a sweeping five-year plan to modernize the North Korean military, including the development of hypersonic weapons and nuclear submarines. Did.
This year is an extension of that vision, with North Korea committed to developing its own strategic nuclear deterrent and nuclear options in a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
There are several possible reasons for the high activity this year. Some experts say Kim Jong Un may have felt empowered to act while the West was occupied with the war in Ukraine. Nuclear expert Panda added that tensions tend to rise when South Korea has a conservative government, which has been the case since May.
North Korea’s aggressive acceleration of weapons testing has raised alarm in the region, bringing exposed neighbors Japan and South Korea closer to their Western partners.
The United States, South Korea, and Japan conducted numerous joint exercises and launched their own missiles in response to North Korea’s tests. The United States has stepped up its presence in the region, redeploying aircraft carriers to waters near the peninsula and sending top-of-the-line stealth fighters to South Korea for training. Meanwhile, the Quad nations, a group of the United States, India, Japan and Australia, held a summit in May to deepen military cooperation.
Individual governments have also taken dramatic steps, with Japan announcing it would double its defense spending.
But experts warn that this rapid militarization could exacerbate instability across the region. And there is no clear end in sight. Klingner said the United States and South Korea were planning more joint exercises in the spring and that North Korea could continue testing “just to show its discontent.”
He added that negotiations were unlikely until Kim further developed the weapon.
“With each lane of the road, they have improved both their nuclear and missile capabilities,” he said. “It’s all very, very worrying.”