Weekly housing inventory data
Here’s what the first week of the year looked like:
- Weekly stock fluctuations (January 12th to 19th): Inventory has increased 505,223 to 506,414
- Same week of the previous year (January 13th to January 20th): Inventory decreased compared to the previous year 473,406 to 472,852
- The bottom price of inventory in 2022 is 240,194
- Inventory peak in 2023 is 569,898
- Check out this week’s active list for context. 2015 was 933,746
Yes, the rate of inventory growth has slowed week on week, but I accept! I’ve been waiting for years for the standard inventory data line to be published at the beginning of the year, and so far It’s becoming more and more. Traditionally, weekly stocks bottom out in January or February and increase toward spring. In recent years, the bottom was in March and April. So far, 2024 is looking good.
New listing data
New listing data isn’t a huge increase year-over-year, but it does show an increase year-over-year (sorry, Silver Tsunami crowd). Most sellers are buyers, and new listing data decreased after interest rates rose in 2022. So we’re working to get back to normal and we still have a ways to go, but I’m happy with where we are.We talked about this very topic. CNBC A few days ago.
New listing data for the past few years:
- 2024: 44,244
- 2023: 42,765
- 2022: 42,620
price reduction rate
Each year, one-third of all homes receive a price reduction before they go on sale, and that’s not unusual. However, as mortgage rates rise and demand takes a bigger hit, this data line accelerates. A perfect example was 2022. When housing inventory growth accelerated, the rate of discounts also rose faster as home sales collapsed. This increase coincided with an upward trend in inventory, which meant people had to lower prices to sell their homes.
This is not something we are seeing now because home sales are not collapsing like they were in 2022. Sales aren’t growing much, but they haven’t crashed like they did in 2022, so we’re closely tracking this data line week after week.Get clues especially about changes in mortgage interest rates
This is the percentage price drop for the same week over the past few years.
- 2024 31.4%
- 2023 34.7%
- 2022 20.6%
Purchase application data
So, the Spring 2024 season officially started last week, with purchasing apps up 9% week over week. I believe it is always important to track this data line when mortgage rates are rising. Of course, we’re not talking about 8% mortgage rates anymore, but mortgage rates are up from their recent lows. There is no damage to the data line so far. Ever since interest rates fell, there has been a continuous positive trend. By excluding all holiday weeks and the first week of the year, we found a positive trend over seven weeks and one positive result for the annual data.
The existing home sales report showed a month-on-month decline. One thing to always remember about purchase application data is that it is predicted 30 to 90 days in advance of sales data, so the December report fully takes into account the impact of lower mortgage rates and increased application data. It was too early to do so.
Also, remember that you are working from a demand level that is lacking. So consider rebound in that context. This is different from the rapid and large-scale COVID-19 recovery.
Mortgage interest rate and 10-year yield
The key to housing in 2024 is the 10-year yield. In my 2024 predictions for him, the 10-year yield ranges are: 3.21%-4.25%there’s a critical line in the sand 3.37%.If economic indicators are strong, it shouldn’t fall below this. 3.21%But if the labor numbers weaken, that line — I call it the Gandalf line, meaning “Thou shalt not pass” — will be tested. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates below. 5.75%-7.25%. This assumes the spread is still bad.
Mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields both rose last week. Mortgage rates ended the week at 6.92%, up from 6.77% at the beginning of the week. The 10-year Treasury yield started this week around 4%, peaked at almost 4.20% during the day, and then fell back to end the week at 4.13%. One bright spot in 2024 is that spreads have improved this year and mortgage rates will not reach 7.25% even though the 10-year Treasury yield will reach 4.25%.
Last week we got some great labor data from unemployment claims. Additionally, several Fed governors have even reversed their interest rate cuts this year. Therefore, always remember that inflation data has been declining significantly over the years. However, labor statistics should be given more weight than inflation, especially if you are aiming to lower mortgage rates. 6%.
Core PCE inflation reporting growth rate for 3-6 months may be lower 2% In the next report.Today’s 10-year bond yield remains high, despite the reality the market knows Four%. This looks right to me, given the Fed’s hawkish nature and low unemployment claims. The closer I get to my critical level, the more 323,000 in 4 week moving average, the behavior of the bond market will change further.Headline data just broke 200,000 Also.
Remember, the Fed has not changed course. The Fed raised interest rates too much last year, has become less hawkish on policy and wants to reverse some of its hikes.
The week ahead: Inflation and housing
The all-important PCE inflation report will be released on Friday, which could show three- and six-month average PCE inflation data of less than 2%. We also have new homes for sale and homes that are pending sale. Pending home sales should show a rebound from recent reports as the Buy app begins filtering for positive reports. If you don’t see any growth, this should be the last one before things get a little more exciting.