Meat bans and ‘un-Brexit’? One bank’s ‘outrageous’ 2023 predictions

Saxo Bank’s ‘outrageous predictions’ for 2023 include a meat production ban, a surge in gold prices and a ‘non-Brexit’ vote for the UK.

The Danish bank’s annual report, published earlier this month, expects the global economy to shift to a “war economy” mode where “sovereign economic interests and independence trump globalization”.

The forecasts don’t represent the bank’s official views, but they did look at how policymakers’ decisions next year will affect both the global economy and political agendas.

Gold reaches $3,000

In the bank’s “outrageous” call for next year, Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of commodities strategy, predicted spot gold prices could exceed $3,000 an ounce in 2023. did.

The report states: Projected surge A “rising war economy mentality” that makes gold more attractive than reserves, heavy investment in new national security priorities, and policy makers trying to avoid a debt fiasco in each recession increased global liquidity for

Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jacobsen said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Dec.

“I think money flies,” he added.

Analysts expect gold prices to rise in 2023, but a surge of that magnitude is unlikely, according to global commodity information firm CRU.

“Our price forecast is much more conservative,” CRU senior analyst Kirill Kirilenko told CNBC.

“A less hawkish stance by the US Federal Reserve would likely lead to a weaker US dollar, thus giving gold bulls the space and energy to rally next year, pushing the price down. “It could push it closer to $1,900 an ounce.”

However, Kirilenko stressed that it all depends on what the Federal Reserve does. “If the US central bank shows signs of becoming more ‘hard-lined,’ it will likely put downward pressure on the price of gold,” he said.

UK votes non-Brexit

According to Saxo’s Jakobsen, the most “outrageous prediction” likely to occur next year is another referendum on Brexit.

“I think it’s one of those things that actually has a high chance,” he told CNBC.

Saxo market strategist Jessica Amir said UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt could raise the Conservative Party’s rating to “unprecedented lows”.

The bank predicts this will prompt British and Welsh people to reconsider their Brexit vote, which is being led by younger voters, and could force Sunak to hold a general election.

Saxo’s Amir said the opposition Labor party had won the election and promised a referendum to overturn Brexit on 1 November, with a ‘rejoin’ vote likely to win.

Saxo’s Jacobsen told CNBC, “Business people say all they get from Brexit is a UK-specific GDPR.” “It’s just more bureaucracy,” he said.

Anand Menon, head of the changing European think tank UK, said the forecast was “totally incalculable”.

“I don’t think there will be another referendum and the idea is [Labour leader Keir] Sturmer will adopt a position for birds,” he said.

Sturmer said at a business conference in September that his party would “make Brexit work”.

According to Menon, public opinion on Brexit has changed since the referendum, with a small majority of 52% of voters choosing to leave the EU in 2016.

“There is no doubt that public opinion seems to be changing,” he said.

Research conducted by YouGov In a November survey, 59% of the 6,174 people surveyed said they thought Brexit would be ‘pretty bad’ or ‘very bad’ after the end of 2020, but that it was ‘very good’. was only 2%.

meat production banned

Meat accounts for 57% of emissions from food production, according to a study published by natural foodand with countries around the world making net-zero commitments, Saxo says at least one country could cut meat production entirely.

Saxo market strategist Chal Chanana said a country “trying to stay ahead of the rest” on climate change creditworthiness has decided to impose heavy taxes on meat from 2025, and by 2030, the number of domestically produced live He said a complete ban on meat of animal origin is possible.

Saxo’s Jacobsen told CNBC, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see Danish and Swedish schools ban meat outright. They’re definitely moving in that direction.” It sounds crazy to me,” he added.

The UK, European Union Member States, Japan and Canada are among the countries with legally binding net zero commitments.

The UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Agriculture told CNBC it had “no plans” to introduce a meat tax or ban meat production.

A turbulent year 2023?

Saxo’s “outrageous predictions” for next year include the resignation of French President Emmanuel Macron, Japan pegging the yen at 200 yen to the dollar and the formation of a unified EU army.

All predictions should be made with a pinch of salt, though. Saxo’s Jakobsen told CNBC that he has a 5-10% chance of each prediction coming true.

Banks have made a series of “outrageous predictions” each year over the past decade, some of which have come true, or at least some of which have come true.

In 2015, Saxo predicted that the UK would vote to leave the European Union after a landslide in the British Independence Party and predicted that Germany would enter a recession in 2019, which Germany narrowly avoided. did. 2017.