On July 22, 2024, the McDonald’s logo was displayed at a McDonald’s restaurant in Burbank, California.
Mario Tama | Getty Images
Subway began phasing out its $5 one-foot sandwiches a decade ago, but other fast-food chains have recently brought back the $5 price point in an effort to win back customers who have cut back on their spending.
As many restaurant companies prepare to report second-quarter earnings, investors are hoping to hear reports of sluggish sales as customers visit restaurants less frequently. chipotle pepperAiming to improve performance next quarter, McDonald’sTaco Bell, Burger King, Wendy’s They announced or brought back meal plans with a price of $5.
McDonald’s said it’s seen increased traffic as a result, but Wall Street isn’t expecting a big boost in sales from the promotion.
Fast food typically outperforms the broader industry during economic downturns. But rising prices over the past few years have many consumers concluding that fast food is no longer a good deal. In a recent survey, more than 60% of respondents According to a LendingTree study: They cut back on spending on fast food because it was too expensive.
Rising menu prices have scared off many fast-food customers, including low-income families who make up a significant portion of the industry’s customer base. Sensing a backlash from customers against fast food, Brinker International Chili’s has used its marketing to highlight its value compared to the cost of fast food meals, as casual dining chains take market share from the fast food sector. Darden Restaurant “We’re excited about this opportunity,” CEO Rick Cardenas said in June.
“It’s a war for the less affluent customer,” said Robert Byrne, senior director of consumer research at Technomic, a restaurant market research firm.
The shift in consumer behavior has sent ripples through Wall Street, with shares of the parent companies of McDonald’s and Burger King dropping 1.5%. Restaurant Brands International Wendy’s has seen double-digit declines this year. Taco Bell’s owner Yum Brand It’s expected to fall by more than 1% in 2024. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 14%.
“There is a widespread belief among investors that the second quarter will be one to forget, with many of the larger chains expected to miss the consensus.” [estimates]”KeyBanc analyst Eric Gonzalez told CNBC.
McDonald’s is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Monday, Wendy’s on Wednesday, and Restaurant Brands and Yum Brands are due to report quarterly results the following week.
Could value meals encourage bigger purchases?
A sign advertising a set menu deal is displayed at a McDonald’s restaurant in Burbank, California on July 22, 2024.
Mario Tama | Getty Images
Fast-food chains typically offer a barrage of discounts and great deals in the first quarter, when consumers are trying to save money after the holidays and stick to their New Year’s resolutions. As the weather warms up, restaurant sales also increase, so operators don’t usually need to rely on specials to draw customers.
But this summer is different: fast-food chains need discounts to drive foot traffic and boost sales.
“The reality is that restaurants are running out of room to put more prices on their menus,” Byrne said.
But value menus aren’t just about increasing foot traffic.
“It’s also about introducing other add-ons and what they’re trying to do to convert the value-seeking consumer into a higher-priced consumer,” Byrne said. “The risk is that they don’t do that.”
Without the ability to convince customers to order milkshakes and other entrees, discounting could eat into profits and become unsustainable in the long run — a major concern for investors already skeptical that the chains will see the increased foot traffic they hope for.
“There were some great deals rolled out towards the end of the quarter. The concern is that things aren’t going to get any better and it’s going to become a race to the bottom,” Gonzalez said.
Subway’s $5 footlongs are a cautionary tale in themselves: The deal was well-received by customers but outstayed its welcome for operators, hurting their profits and exacerbating other problems with the brand, including cannibalizing sales from its vast store footprint. The result was restaurant closures and angry operators who spent years searching for new ways to win back customers.
Franchisee skepticism
Investors aren’t the only ones skeptical of such promotions: Franchisees often oppose discounts, citing them as hurting their profits.
In recent years, franchisees have also become more resistant to the deal-making strategies of their parent companies. They have become bigger, have more locations and many are backed by private equity.
At McDonald’s, franchisees banded together to form the National Owners Association in 2018 to push back against the burger giant’s unpopular price cuts and store remodeling plans. Since then, the chain’s operators have further pushed back against management’s plans.
McDonald’s on Monday extended the duration of its Value Set beyond the initial four weeks, and in a memo to its U.S. system seen by CNBC, McDonald’s executives wrote that 93% of restaurants voted in favor of the extension.
The promotion is driving customers back to stores, according to both executives and foot traffic data. McDonald’s $5 menu launch date, June 25, drew 8% more traffic than the average Tuesday so far in 2024, according to a Placer.ai report. The pattern has repeated since then, with the chain topping its average daily traffic so far this year. Placer.ai also found that the discounts contributed to increased traffic to Buffalo Wild Wings, Starbucks and Chili’s.
In a quarterly survey of more than 20 McDonald’s franchisees, analyst Mark Kalinowski of Kalinowski Equity Research asked respondents what percentage of sales the $5 meal sets increased, and the average answer was 1.3 percent.
“These responses may suggest that the $5 Meal Deal should be viewed as an initiative that may help keep some customers from going to other stores, rather than one designed to generate big sales,” Kalinowski wrote in a research note on the survey results on Wednesday.
