– Opinion –
Events in life often symbolize important times: our grandparents lived through the Great Depression, we lived through the Vietnam War, etc.
Hopefully, this time we won’t become famous for respiratory illness. We’ve had enough of that during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a relief a few weeks ago when it was announced that respiratory illnesses across Colorado’s Front Range were returning to normal pre-pandemic levels.
Normal, low levels are a good thing. However, there are reports of increased avian influenza A(H5N1) infections among cattle in several states. While the human health risk reportedly remains low, federal health resources, led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are preparing for the possibility that the virus could adapt to allow human-to-human transmission.
The CDC reportedly has two vaccine candidates that could be made available if necessary, and while there is no evidence yet that H5N1 can be transmitted between humans, a vaccine is essential for pandemic preparedness.
This was announced not only by the CDC but also by GlobalData, a data and analytics company.
Influenza A(H5N1) is classified as a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus that primarily affects domestic and wild birds.
Since March, a multistate outbreak of dairy cattle infections has affected at least 49 dairy herds in nine states. The latest development is the discovery of avian influenza virus particles in tissue samples from U.S. dairy cows sent to slaughter.
After increased testing, two dairy workers were also found to have the virus, bringing flu cases to at least 58 dairy farms in nine states.
Infected cattle have transmitted the virus to cats, and other wild mammals have also been infected.
“Although the H5N1 virus rarely infects humans, it can cause severe disease and needs to be taken seriously,” said Stephanie Kardak, infectious disease analyst at GlobalData.
All three people infected with avian flu since 2022 have fully recovered, but according to the World Health Organization (WHO), the mortality rate for humans infected with influenza A(H5N1) is around 50%.
The two vaccines in the national stockpile are in limited supply, and GlobalData estimates that hundreds of thousands of doses could be shipped within weeks if human infections spread, with more than 100 million doses likely to be shipped within three to four months.
Crudach added: “These precautions being taken by the U.S. government are essential to prepare for and mitigate the impact of a potential pandemic if the virus mutates in a way that allows H5N1 to spread easily from person to person.”
According to the WHO, the next pandemic will most likely be caused by an influenza virus.
GlobalData has identified 13 vaccines in clinical development stages (Phase I-III) for pandemic influenza/influenza A(H5N1). Of note are vaccine candidates from GSK (Influenza A/H5N1 vaccine) and Moderna (mRNA-1018), which are in Phase I/II clinical trials. mRNA H5N1 vaccines would be particularly beneficial during a pandemic, as they can be produced much faster than traditional vaccines.
Kurdach concluded: “The risk to the general public of influenza A(H5N1) infection is currently low, but it is important to avoid contact with poultry and wild birds and to cook poultry products thoroughly.”
It’s good to see smart people taking this seriously, but these preventative measures have their limits. Pasteurization of milk has been suggested by some raw milk drinkers as something they’re going to ignore. We all need to be on the same team.
Now is the time to exercise extreme caution and hope that the best science will lead us to one of those ordinary, boring places.
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