This year has been particularly tough for Nasdaq Composite. Thursday and Friday could be the last days you can offset any wins you may have already won. I think he made a lot of gains this year simply because the Federal Reserve set his 2-year Treasury yield at his 4.3%. I’ve been watching his 2-year Treasury like a hawk and it suggests the Fed will complete the rate hike at around 4.25%. Still expensive, but not insanely expensive. I know a lot of people would like to think that the 225,000 unemployment claims for the week ended Dec. 24 were causing Thursday’s rally, but that’s kind of silly. Wake me up when it reaches 325,000. Remember, the “in-place” numbers don’t change the Fed’s thinking about slowing the pace of rate hikes. However, it finally became oversold and the S&P oscillator fell -5.3% on Thursday. Oscillators can’t go wrong in 2022. We waited for what seemed like an eternity to buy, but the odds weren’t in favor of the bulls during a period of tax loss selling. You bought the stock at a 5% yield in the belief that Ford Motor (F) stock would recover. Automakers are plagued by seemingly resolved supply chain issues, commodity prices that are currently peaking, and ongoing warranty issues. So why is Ford’s stock down nearly 45% year-to-date: high interest rates, expensive car payments (excluding credit unions), and fears of a recession are the obvious reasons. I think the stock discounts all three of these factors appropriately. Hiring is still high and layoffs not so high, so getting out ahead of still strong hiring numbers is very tempting. Despite the pasting done, technology still has a job, surprisingly. Even the most redundant fintech and enterprise software companies, especially those that help measure and analyze data, or develop tools to do so, have few layoffs. Public ones are bouncing hard today, but I don’t trust them. But let’s not forget that without the weaker employment numbers ahead, we’ll have to listen to endless chatter of a bigger-than-expected rate hike in 2023. However, train yourself. I expect these numbers to be very different in six months as interest rates start to rise and the tech giants finally run out of money and time. (For a complete list of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust shares, see here.) Subscribers to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investing Club receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling shares in his charitable trust portfolio. If Jim talks about his stock on his CNBC TV, he will wait 72 hours after issuing a trade alert before executing the trade. The investment club information above is subject to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, along with our disclaimer. No fiduciary duty or obligation exists or is created by your receipt of information provided in connection with The Investment Club. No specific results or benefits are guaranteed.
A “Call for Help” sign appears in a store window in Manhattan, New York City, December 2, 2022.
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This year has been particularly tough. NASDAQ Compositeand Thursday and Friday could be the last days you can offset any wins you may have already won.