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Editor’s note: The following column was originally published. city journal.
Since Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel, Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime head of Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon and the country’s de facto ruler, has remained uncharacteristically silent. Iran has warned that it will respond if Israel invades Gaza and kills Palestinians, but Nasrallah has not issued any such threat. His silence has led some Middle East analysts to believe that Hezbollah, and more precisely Iran, was in trouble when Israel launched a massive ground invasion of Gaza to decapitate Hamas’s leadership and destroy its capabilities. Debate rages over whether there are plans to open a second front and escalate the conflict. Harm the Israelis again.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese Palestinian terrorist alliance have been engaged in limited daily clashes along the Israeli-Lebanese border and fired rockets at military targets in northern Israel, but their forces are still attacking Israeli civilians and infrastructure. It has not launched large numbers of missiles or rockets toward the country. An arsenal of rockets and missiles estimated to number over 100,000. Special forces have not invaded Israel either. It has not yet called in reserve troops or evacuated Beirut’s southern suburbs, which would normally be necessary to prepare for war.
“Nasrallah’s silence and limited hostilities on the border suggest that Hezbollah and Iran have not yet decided how deep to intervene in the conflict,” said Dr. said Hanin Gadar, an expert on the group at the Washington Near Range Institute. East policy.
Israeli officials predict US will be ‘involved’ if Iran and Hezbollah join fight against Hamas
Mr. Nasrallah is usually not so timid. Last February, Nasrallah was gloating as hundreds of thousands of Israelis poured into the streets to protest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to radically curtail Israel’s independent judiciary. In a televised address from a Lebanese bunker, he cited Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s warning that compromise between Israel’s political factions is essential to avoid disintegrating the country. He noted that neither of the previous two Jewish states in the region lasted more than 75 years, and that “God willing” a third Jewish state “would not be able to celebrate its 80th anniversary.” I will never welcome you.”
Since taking office in 1992 as the leader of Lebanon’s most violent Shiite terrorist group and Iran’s most dangerous agent, Nasrallah has done his best to achieve that goal. A careful student of Israel’s internal politics, he has long praised Israel’s division, attacked it at its moments of greatest vulnerability, and encouraged other Islamic extremists to annihilate the Jewish state.
Hezbollah takes responsibility for attacks on Israeli military positions along the Lebanese border
But Hezbollah, Iran and its terrorist crown jewel, may be reluctant to open a second front for several reasons. First, Peter Berkowitz, a fellow at the Hoover Institution who worked in former President Trump’s State Department, said that President Biden is a strong supporter of Israel, and that Hamas’ brutal massacre of 1,400 Israelis and hostages was a major threat to Hamas. It says it is Israel’s right to resist the seizure of 200 people, some of them Americans. . Support for this rhetoric is reinforced by the president’s decision to send two carrier strike groups and a Marine battalion training in Kuwait to the Eastern Mediterranean to thwart “regional” forces seeking to escalate the war. Ta. “This sends a strong message to Iran,” Berkowitz said. “Please don’t escalate.”
Iran may also be reluctant to escalate the conflict and jeopardize what some analysts see as gains already made in the Hamas-Israel war. Most importantly, it temporarily disrupts US-backed diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and Israel aimed at recognizing Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran reacted to Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman telling Fox News last month that talks of normalizing relations were “real for the first time” and that they were “getting closer and closer” to a deal. I’m sure I was wary. However, after the Hamas invasion and Israel’s first bombing of Gaza in response to the Hamas attack, Riyadh issued a statement condemning the “forced displacement of Palestinians” inside Gaza and Israeli attacks on “defenseless civilians.” This was the strongest expression of criticism of Israel to date.
Live updates: Israel is at war with Hamas
The Hamas attack also succeeded in exposing Israel’s weaknesses, namely serious failures in intelligence and preparedness. The explosion of the myth of Israeli invincibility has shifted the political narrative from gradual recognition of Israel’s existing rights in the region to a reassessment of the Palestinian cause. “Hamas has succeeded in bringing Palestinians and their suffering back to Arab streets,” Ghaddar said.
Additionally, the Israel-Hamas crisis has been exacerbated by Iran’s use of proxies to attack America’s allies in the region, as well as Iran’s own nuclear program, particularly the repeated agreements with former President Obama aimed at slowing Tehran. At least temporarily diverted attention from the violation. Search for bombs. Since former President Trump unilaterally abandoned the nuclear deal, Iran has repeatedly ignored its nuclear commitments to the United States and the United Nations. The escalation of the conflict may give Israel and the United States an opportunity to take further action to thwart Iran’s long-standing quest for the type of nuclear capability that only Israel possesses in the region.
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Hezbollah also has its own reasons to be concerned about the escalation of the conflict. Nasrallah undoubtedly fears losing the military presence it has steadily built up since its last major conflict with Israel in 2006. During that conflict, which Hezbollah provoked by killing three Israeli soldiers and kidnapping two others, Israel bombed the home and office of a Hezbollah leader south of Beirut. It destroyed the suburbs and destroyed the country’s infrastructure. Prime Minister Nasrallah later expressed his regret for the war, which Lebanese blamed on the Party of God, saying he never imagined the capture of two Israeli soldiers would lead to a war of “this magnitude.” He said no. With Lebanon’s economy already in decline, dragging Lebanon into a new war with Israel would arouse deep resentment among the Lebanese people and further jeopardize Hezbollah’s hold on power in the country.
However, the decision to escalate the Israel-Hamas war will be taken by Islamists in Tehran, not Hezbollah in Lebanon. The mass deaths of Palestinians in Israel’s response to Hamas could prompt a change in Iran’s political calculations. And there is always the possibility of miscalculation in Tehran, a tendency well known in the Middle East. Although Israel and the United States say they have not yet found direct evidence that Iran directed Hamas’s brutal attacks, Hamas, and perhaps Iran itself, have already made two such mistakes. First, Hamas assumed that Israel would not launch a major attack on Gaza if it meant risking the lives of Israeli hostages. And secondly, the extremists who planned and ordered the strike clearly did not believe that America would wholeheartedly support its Jewish allies without restriction.
Even after Mr. Biden expressed strong support for Israel’s right to counterattack, Mr. Tehran said that the stationing of a US aircraft carrier near Lebanon was merely a military posture, and given Mr. Biden’s past history, there was no possibility that Mr. Biden would use military force. It is quite possible to conclude that the gender is low. And who can blame Tehran for assuming Biden is bluffing?
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As the Wall Street Journal noted in an editorial on Sunday, of the 83 attacks by Iranian proxies, the United States has responded militarily to only four. Biden’s failed and humiliating withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan gives the impression that the US is tired of defending its allies and democracies abroad and lacks the political will to engage in such conflicts. It was further strengthened among America’s enemies and rivals.
“This is an important test of the Biden administration’s resolve,” Berkowitz said. “Not only Israel, but also the United States, needs to restore confidence in deterrence.”
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