Ireland has much to mull over as voters head to the polls

Ireland will vote on November 29, with centre-right parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael expected to once again form the core of the next government.

The historic rivals have shared power alongside the Greens for the past five years, with the latest opinion polls showing both parties making strides as the campaign draws to a close.

Whoever leads the country after the vote will face some unique economic challenges and opportunities. Ireland runs a budget surplus due to its unique position as the European headquarters of major US tech and pharmaceutical companies, while its balance sheet was boosted by a September House of Commons ruling. The European Court of Justice ordered Apple to pay 13 billion euros ($13.7 billion) in additional taxes to the country.

Meanwhile, there are fears in Dublin that President-elect Donald Trump will try to crack down on American companies that pay taxes in Ireland rather than in the United States.

The country’s two major political parties appear to be back on track to form a government, although there are some struggles for Fine Gael as the campaign winds down. Latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A Poll Statistics from November 25 show that Fine Gael’s approval rating has fallen by six points in the past two weeks to 19%, while Fianna Fail’s approval rating now stands at 21%.

The support rate for the Republican Sinn Féin party, which saw significant growth in the last general election, is now 20%, while the support rate for independent candidates is 17%. Ireland uses proportional voting, and if no party wins a majority in the election, a coalition government is certain to be established.

Nevertheless, it is unclear what policy changes are expected, given that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to have influence within a potential government.

Housing is an important issue; central bank of ireland He recently warned in a report in September that Ireland’s “housing market has been undersupplied for more than a decade”, adding that soaring rent and house prices were pushing affordability to the limit. Ta. The central bank went on to predict that “approximately 52,000 new housing units may be needed annually until the middle of this century, an increase of 20,000 units compared to the supply in 2023.”

Homelessness across the country, and particularly in Dublin, has reached record levels, with around 15,000 people in emergency accommodation in September, of whom 4,561 were children, according to official figures.

Despite concerns about tight housing supply, Emma Howard, an economist at the Institute of Technology Dublin, said in an email to CNBC that Ireland is “the only English-speaking country with access to the European single market, and we “It remains attractive to workers given that it is the only English-speaking country with access to the European single market.” It has a relatively young and well-educated workforce compared to its European peers. ”

The good news is that the country’s finances are on solid footing, more than a decade after the government sought relief from the IMF, ECB and European Commission. A fiscal surplus was recorded. past 2 yearsand Minister of Finance Jack Chambers The ECJ ruling revealed in September that the country expects to record a surplus of up to 24 billion euros this year.

Further tailwinds came in mid-November when S&P Global Ratings upgraded Ireland’s outlook from stable to positive, adding that the rating could be revised. Rating to AAA – The agency’s highest rating – if Dublin “continues to rebuild its economic and fiscal buffers”.

Nevertheless, the report came with a warning to authorities that 10 foreign multinationals were responsible for half of the country’s corporate tax revenues in 2023.

However, Mr Howard said: “If the ‘windfall’ corporation tax, i.e. the part of government revenue that does not come from domestic economic activity, is removed, Ireland is actually running a budget deficit, and the current The total spending plan is a deficit of 50 billion euros.

Many of these are American companies, which could cast dark clouds over the country.

This could also threaten Ireland’s status as a tax favorite for US companies. Corporate tax rate It currently ranks among the lowest in the entire euro area. The next Secretary of Commerce is already howard lutnick In October, he criticized Ireland’s trade surplus with the United States and fired a shot at the bow of the ship when Lutnick threatened to end “this nonsense.”

CEO Cantor Fitzgerald also said,Additional direct responsibilitiesPresident-elect Trump himself has business ties to Ireland, having owned a golf club on the European country’s west coast since 2014. He has previously used the resort as a base when visiting Ireland. Ireland during its first presidential term.