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Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected a proposal purportedly from President-elect Donald Trump’s team to resolve the Ukraine conflict, which will turn four years old next February.
“Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposal submitted on behalf of the president-elect’s team to postpone Ukraine’s membership in NATO for 20 years and to introduce British and European peacekeeping forces into Ukraine,” Lavrov said. said. He said this in an interview with the Russian government’s state-run news agency TASS.
Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement likely signals that Russian President Vladimir Putin will take an aggressive stance toward President Trump regarding Ukraine. Even a strong negotiator like President Trump would find it nearly impossible to reach an agreement with President Putin. Here’s why:
At his annual press conference last month, Putin largely ruled out a peace deal with the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In response to a reporter’s question whether there were any preconditions for starting negotiations on Ukraine, President Putin denied that there were any. But in clarifying his answer, Putin said Russia would “sign documents” “only with representatives of the legitimate authorities.”
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Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks by phone during his annual year-end press conference in Moscow on December 19, 2024. (Reuters/Maxim Shemetov)
He claimed that Zelensky and his government were “illegitimate” and explained that “Ukraine’s constitution does not contain any provisions that would extend presidential powers even in times of war.” Zelenskiy’s term did indeed expire on May 20th. “If someone can stand for election and be recognized as legitimate, we will talk to anyone, including Mr. Zelensky,” Putin added.
President Putin, who is a lawyer by profession, claimed that only the Verkhovna Rada, a unicameral parliament, supports parliament. The agreement between the Ukrainian government and its president, Ruslan Stefanchuk, was “legal” because Ukraine’s constitution allows parliament to expand its powers during wartime. But Lada and its chairman are “completely under the leadership of the regime,” he claimed, possibly because Zelensky’s party Servant of the People controlled a majority of the organization after the 2019 parliamentary elections. This seems to be a reference to the fact that there are. Putin claims that the illegitimacy of Mr. Zelensky, who is technically superior to Mr. Stefanchuk, renders parliament and its decisions illegitimate.
President Putin also ruled out the possibility of a ceasefire at a press conference. Referring to President Trump and the Russia-Ukraine special envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the Russian journalist asked whether it was “feasible” to “have a ceasefire at any time” or “stop the war.” He said they had discussed ending the war before Trump was inaugurated as president on January 20.
Soldiers carry the coffin of Petro Veliky, 48, who died in battle with Russian troops, during a farewell ceremony at the Music and Drama Theater in Chernyhiv, Ukraine, on November 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Dan Basyakov)
President Putin responded, “Stop.” [combat operations] 1 week – it means giving the enemy a chance to gain a foothold in your position. Get the necessary military equipment, ammunition to give him a chance to rest. . . And President Putin asserted that “a relatively long ceasefire period will allow our adversaries to train and retrain,” adding that the Russian military will “have access to weapons systems, ammunition, munitions and, most importantly, In particular, he argued in favor of maintaining momentum even as the economy dries up. Ukrainian military personnel. ”
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Putin is confident he can keep going until Ukraine surrenders or a deal is reached on Russia’s terms, which is unacceptable to the United States and may not be acceptable to the Trump campaign. expensive. President Putin will retain 20% of Ukraine’s territory and Crimea, legal guarantees that Ukraine will become a neutral country with no path to NATO membership, the lifting of US and Western sanctions from Russia, and the annexed territories. wants recognition from Western countries.
President Putin is confident that he can push for a tough deal, even with President Trump. Russia, which the Pentagon itself considers a “nearly equal competitor” to the U.S. military, has an overwhelming strategic advantage over Ukraine in terms of military capabilities such as weapons, military forces, defense economy, and military industrial production capabilities. have sex. Russia’s population is three times that of Ukraine, and Moscow has an overwhelming advantage in human resources.
Former President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at Trump Tower in New York City on September 27, 2024. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nickinson)
President Putin has continued to mobilize additional forces throughout the conflict, including through covert means. Russia has already deployed 15% more troops than at the start of the war. In September, President Putin ordered further reinforcement of the Russian military by decree, adding 180,000 troops. Russia’s armed forces currently number 2.38 million people, of whom 1.5 million are active duty soldiers. President Putin added 11,000 North Korean soldiers to the Russian military fighting in Ukraine, demonstrating that he can source personnel from allies.
President Putin even indirectly mocked the Trump campaign. The Russian dictator has challenged Washington to a “21st century high-tech duel” to test U.S. air and missile defense systems against Russia’s Oleshnik hypersonic missile targeting Kiev. “We are ready for such an experiment. But is the other side ready? Let’s do such an experiment, a technical duel and see what happens. I think it’s beneficial for us and for the American side.”
Putin suggested that Trump must first contact Putin to begin talks. In response to an NBC reporter’s question about when Putin will meet with Trump and what concessions he will offer given that Trump “will be a weaker leader,” Putin said: “First of all, I don’t know when he and I will meet,” he said. He hasn’t said anything about it and we haven’t talked in over 4 years now. ” Putin added that he is “ready” to meet Trump “at any time” if he wishes.
Ukrainian troops fighting during a military operation in the Kursk region of Malay Roknia, Russia. This screen capture taken from a distribution video published on August 20, 2024. (Air Assault Brigade/Handout via Reuters)
Putin denied that he was in a weak position, saying he had a “different point of view” and adding: “I believe that Russia has become much stronger in the last two or three years. Why? Because We are becoming a true nation.” We are a sovereign nation, so we are not dependent on many people. Indeed, in anticipation of, and in response to, the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Moscow in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Putin sought to protect the Russian economy from sanctions and reduce its dependence on foreign, especially Western, technology. has been reduced.
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Putin’s measures include launching an import substitution program across Russia’s manufacturing industry to boost domestic production, eliminating the dollar from Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and foreign exchange reserves, and taking the lead with the BRICS to replace the US dollar. This includes efforts aimed at replacing it with currency. It is the primary currency of international exchange and strengthens economic and military ties with non-Western countries, both allies of the United States such as India and adversaries such as China, Iran, and North Korea.
Given that Putin will almost certainly take tough measures and that the United States has limited influence in Russia, unlike, for example, China, it is difficult for the masters of the “art of the deal” to carry out their mission. , Team Trump will have to look for creative solutions. Campaign promise to bring peace to Ukraine.
Click here to read more from Rebecca Koffler
