One of Mexico’s top Latin America experts has warned that when it comes to cooperation on issues such as border security, Mexico’s next president is likely to follow suit and be “bad news” for the United States.
Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to win Mexico’s presidential election and succeed outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Sheinbaum’s Morena party is also expected to win majorities in both houses of Congress.
“I congratulate Claudia Scheinbaum on her historic election as Mexico’s first woman president,” President Biden said Monday, adding, “I look forward to working closely with President-elect Scheinbaum in a spirit of cooperation and friendship that reflects the enduring bonds between our two countries.”
“I also congratulate the Mexican people for a successful nationwide democratic electoral process that included elections for more than 20,000 offices at the local, state and federal levels,” Biden added.
Claudia Scheinbaum elected Mexico’s first female president
Mexico City President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum waves to supporters in the Zocalo, a central square, after the National Electoral Commission announced that Sheinbaum holds an irreversible lead in the presidential election, Monday, June 3. (AP/Marco Ugarte)
Andrés Martínez Fernández, a senior policy analyst for Latin America at the Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center for National Security, warned at a news conference that Scheinbaum is a left-wing activist who is unlikely to deviate from AMLO’s hard-line stance toward the United States.
“Claudia Scheinbaum is a progressive with a background as an activist/scholar. [who] “He’s someone who has risen through the ranks of the Mexican left and comes from a distinguished family of the Mexican left,” he said.
In particular, Mexico and the United States have not always seen eye to eye on the issue of illegal immigration across the U.S. border. While the Biden administration has praised cooperation with Mexico on many fronts, AMLO has attacked Republican politicians, threatening to wage an “information campaign” against them, and falsely claiming that fentanyl is not produced in Mexico.
Scheinbaum faces major obstacles from powerful cartels
Migrants who crossed the Rio Grande River from Mexico into the United States stand in line to be processed by Customs and Border Protection in Eagle Pass, Texas, on September 23, 2023. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)
“We can expect to see a lot of similar dynamics when it comes to U.S.-Mexico relations and U.S. policy on issues that are of greatest concern to the United States and that directly affect the United States,” Martinez Fernandez said.
“And in general, this is bad news because we’re seeing a deterioration in cooperation across the board, with the Lopez Obrador administration being a very bad partner for the United States, whether it’s security, trade, immigration, other issues, narco-corruption,” he said. “And the cooperation that we do see at times, as we see increased activism on immigration, for example, is very political, very temporary and transactional.”
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He said Scheinbaum would likely “stay the course” in keeping with continuity from the Lopez Obrador administration, given that the current president remains in office.
“Even if she has the will and the desire to make change and there are people in the U.S. who are hopeful about that, I really don’t think there’s much room for her to do it again, because AMLO has always basically expected to have a lot of influence in the Sheinbaum administration and to play a very active role and ensure continuity behind the scenes,” he said.
He also warned that she was likely to listen more to Mexico’s left.
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“I think she’s going to be more willing to listen to voices on the Mexican left that are less willing to take aggressive action against immigrants and are more willing, supportive and want to see those movements continue,” he said.
The comments come as President Biden is expected to announce executive orders on Tuesday to combat illegal immigration at the border, but depending on the measures he takes, he may need Mexico’s cooperation.
Fox News’ Greg Norman contributed to this report.
