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In a week of major news surprises, I’m once again surprised that former President Donald Trump’s choice of vice presidential nominee wasn’t more surprising.
As it turned out, the clue wasn’t a reality-TV hoax, but real: Trump had chosen 39-year-old Republican Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio as his running mate. The young senator, who will represent his home state in 2022, is a writer, a father and a Marine. For those with long memories, he’s both a Washington newcomer and a veteran of the political elite.
Vance first gained fame in 2016 when he wrote the hugely popular best-selling “Hillbilly Elegy,” a moving memoir of his working-class upbringing and Appalachian heritage that was made into a film in 2020 starring Glenn Close.
Former President Donald Trump on Monday nominated J.D. Vance as his 2024 running mate. (Getty Images)
The book became a kind of unofficial guide to understanding Trump supporters in the run up to 2016. After Trump won, Vance became a sought-after translator for Trump supporters in the media and academic circles, making it his mission to communicate the concerns of working-class Appalachian voters to the ruling class.
Trump nominates Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance for 2024 presidential run
His ability to understand white working-class America, combined with his Ivy League education, made him well suited to being a commentator, and he thrived in that field, and he was critical enough of Trump at the time to be well received by his audience and deliver some of the scathing comments that would later prove to be a drag on the candidate.
But his ability to straddle two worlds is also what makes this pick a missed opportunity for Trump: Vance brings to this slate the working-class, Rust Belt appeal that Trump already possessed, as well as the ability to operate in and understand an elite media environment.
The former president may like Vance for those qualities, but he doesn’t need him for them because he already has them. I’d be willing to bet he likes Vance even more because the Ohio Republican earned the accolades of elites but rejected them in his populist shift to Trump’s side.
But is that the secret to electoral success?
FOX NEWS POLITICS: Vance wins!
Trump had an opportunity to use the election to reach out to neutral double-dipists who may have softened to double-dipists or persuadable voters after Biden’s terrible performance in the debates.
A pick like North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, with lighter rhetoric and a fuller resume, might have done that, while a pick like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin could have brought in a popular candidate with management experience and a track record of winning suburban votes in purple states where Biden’s weakness has made Trump newly competitive.
Meanwhile, Vance struggled compared to other Republicans in his first (and, to be fair, very ambitious) campaign, lagging behind other candidates by 6 to 10 points.
Trump’s running mate JD Vance: Inside his Hollywood ties
Still, he defeated Democratic Sen. Tim Ryan by six points, and the man who burst onto the Washington scene as a literary figure a few years ago is back there in a different guise.
Today, it seems increasingly likely that a younger, more populist figure will take the presidency — and that person would also be the leading contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 if Trump wins in 2024.
So is this choice aimed at policy legacy?
History suggests that Trump is less interested in policy specifics than he is in the general spirit of America First and economic populism, especially when it comes to trade, so it would have been worthwhile for him to back someone who wouldn’t risk the Republican Party reverting to its pro-establishment, free-market form in four years’ time. Perhaps Vance, as his running mate, could take on the traditional attack dog role, signaling that Trump’s more restrained stance of last month is here to stay.
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Vance is undoubtedly a brilliant and remarkable man, as his life story attests: He enlisted after 9/11 and served his country honorably as a Marine, and is the only military veteran of either nomination, which will bring special knowledge of the community.
When it comes to policy specifics, he is by far the best speaker of the four major candidates.
His inspiring life story has been introduced to many Americans through bestselling books and a film directed by Ron Howard. The importance of pop culture’s connection to Trump, or to ordinary voters, should not be underestimated. They will know him first as the guy from “Hillbilly Elegy” and then as Trump’s running mate. In fact, several of my friends who are not interested in politics have texted me immediately after seeing his name on breaking news, asking if he is the guy from the Glenn Close movie or book they read a few years ago.
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That has never been my strategy, but it is rarely Trump’s.
So maybe the surprise is that by the time I finish writing this, I’ll be surprised myself.
For more information on Mary Katharine Hamm, click here