Most of us want to stay on this earth for as long as possible. Although there are still differences by gender and region, we as a species have longer lifespans and are expected to continue to do so.
Researcher David Atans and his team at the University of Alcalá in Spain collected data on historical trends. They then used the results to predict what we can expect in the future. Although some groups have had a harder time than others due to factors such as war, poverty, natural disasters, and disease, trends in morality and longevity are more similar, regardless of gender or location. Researchers have discovered that.
“Gender disparity is on the decline” [clusters]” they said. study Recently published in PLOS One.
remember the past
The researchers used specific mortality indicators, such as life expectancy at birth and the most common age at death, to identify five global clusters that reflect life expectancy in different regions of the world. did. The countries included in these clusters have changed slightly from 1990 to 2010 and are projected to change further by 2030 (although the 2030 forecasts are clearly provisional). Both men’s and women’s data were considered when determining which countries belonged to which clusters in each period. In some cases, one gender thrived while the other struggled within a cluster or within the same country.
In 1990 and 2010, clusters that included mainly wealthy countries had the highest odds of longevity. As expected, low-income countries had the worst mortality rates. In 1990, many of these countries were in Africa, suffering from war, political upheaval, and the deadly HIV/AIDS epidemic. During this period, Rwanda endured a bloody civil war. At the same time, Uganda was experiencing tensions not only with Sudan and Zaire, but also with Rwanda. In the Middle East, the Gulf War and its aftermath inevitably affected her 1990 male and female population.
In addition to weak health systems, the same factors that led to high mortality rates in most African countries remained the same in 2010. Across all clusters, men’s life expectancy tended to vary slightly less between countries than women’s life expectancy. However, in some areas, differences in lifespan between males and females were observed. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990, mortality rates among men in the former Soviet Union countries increased significantly, and this trend continued in 2010. The causes of death in these countries are violence, accidents, cardiovascular disease, alcohol, inadequate health systems, poverty, and psychosocial stress.
glimpse of the future
Predictions for 2030 require caution. Past trends can be a good indicator of what’s to come, but trends don’t always continue. Although conditions may change between now and 2030 (and the changes could be significant), these estimates are only a prediction of what would happen if past and current trends continued into the relatively near future. predicting what will happen.
Some countries could be even worse by 2030. Regions with the lowest incomes and highest mortality rates will include some African countries hit hard by war and political and socio-economic challenges. The second low-income, high-mortality cluster is also comprised primarily of African countries, but also includes political and socio-economic countries that have recently been or are currently involved in conflict or war, such as Ukraine. Eastern European countries and Asian countries, which are also facing economic problems, will also be added to the list.
The groups with the highest incomes and lowest mortality rates will win some countries. This includes Chile, which has made developmental advances that have led to people living longer lives.
The countries of the former Soviet Union will probably continue to face the same problems as they did in 1990 and 2010. These countries will most likely fall into one of the middle-income, middle-life expectancy groups, and will be joined by several Latin American countries that once belonged to a higher tier. However, we are currently facing high levels of homicides, suicides, and accidents among middle-aged men. Meanwhile, other countries in Latin America are also predicted by the researchers to move toward higher incomes and lower mortality rates.
Appearances can be deceiving
Depending on the time horizon, the study categorizes the United States into either the first or second highest income and lowest mortality group. If we do that, it might look like we’re doing well on a global scale. Although this study is not specifically focused on the United States, there are certain regional issues that indicate otherwise.
2022 study Pregnancy and maternal care in the United States is among the worst, with an alarmingly high maternal mortality rate of about 33 deaths per 100,000 live births, and it’s getting worse, according to a study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is more than double what it was 20 years ago. States like Texas banned abortion after the constitution was overturned. Roe vs. Wade, infant deaths are also rapidly increasing.US is also the most expensive health care Systems among high-income countries have further deteriorated due to the pandemic.
CDC I will also report Life expectancy in the United States continues to plummet. It is caused by cancer, heart disease, stroke, drug overdoses, and accidents, and is especially common among middle-aged Americans. Gun violence and suicide are also on the rise. The gun is #1 killer Accidents involving children and teens that used to be car accidents.
It is also unclear whether the United States will remain the country with the highest longevity, especially if the maternal mortality rate continues to rise and there are no significant improvements in the health care system. There or elsewhere, there is no way to know what will actually happen between now and his year 2030, but Attance and his team have revisited research from that time and put estimates into the real world. I would like to compare the data. The research team also plans to further analyze the factors that contribute to longevity and mortality, and conduct studies that may support their predictions. We hope we live to see the results.
PLOS One, 2024. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0295842
