Recently, we took a look at what the Bucks’ defense can do. Limit the Texans offense There are several keys to a possible game plan. Now, we take a look at what the much-maligned Bucks offense can do to score points. Thanks again to Arjun Menon and his scouting reports for his app. here.
11 people permanently stationed
The Bucs started the season trying to survive the season with 12 players (one running back, two tight ends) almost 50% of the time. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales learned as the season progressed that that wasn’t the most efficient use of his players and adjusted accordingly.
Over the past three weeks, he has used only 40% of his 12-person staff. This trend should continue and grow against the Texans. Houston will most likely match up his 11 in his 4-2-5 front, with +0.03 expected points per play and -0.05 epa rushing per play. If the Bucs opt for a 12-man system, the Texans will most likely respond with a 4-3-4 look that has been more successful defensively (-0.09 epa across plays, and -0.37 epa per rush).
Bucs must challenge Texans secondary and force deep shots
I’m not going to force you to “defuse the bomb” on every play call. However, the Bucks’ offense requires him to plan and make seven to eight deep shots in a game. This season, the Texans are 12-for-26 for 377 yards on passing attempts of 20 or more air yards to opposing passers, resulting in two touchdowns and two turnover-worthy plays.
When this cumulative line is stacked against all passers with at least 24 attempts, it ranks tied for 8th in completion percentage (46.15%) and tied for 8th in yards per attempt (14.5) . The Texans are weak against deep balls. They rank 20th in completion percentage allowed on passes of 20 air yards or more and 22nd in EPA/play allowed on similar plays.
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Trey Palmer have all shown the ability to get open and play deep, which could be the “X” factor that decides the game.
Houston could get beat downfield…but will the Bucks get a shot? pic.twitter.com/0FVxMzussZ
— Joshua Quaipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023
Play more Shotgun action
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
This is a combination of game planning for the Texans defense and self-scouting for the Bucs offense. Houston is very sensitive to play action. On the season, they were 42-50 and allowed 495 yards to opposing quarterbacks. Again, if you compare that cumulative line to quarterbacks in the league, it ranks him first in success rate and seventh in yards per attempt.
Essentially, the opposing offense can earn almost a new first down every 1st and 10 by just running play action every time. Now, while the Bucs are here, more Despite having more success with play-action than any other single element (personnel grouping, motion, run/pass, under center/shotgun), they weren’t a world power.
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield ranks 25th in the NFL in play-action with just 7.0 yards per attempt. But over the past three weeks, Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense have been more than 50 percent successful on play-action runs from the shotgun.
After some successful PA boots/half boots early in the season, defenses have started sitting on them by keeping edge rushers home. Over 50% of his successful counters in recent weeks have been PA from guns. Here he scored 23 points on catch and runs. pic.twitter.com/saefEZIESd
— Joshua Quaipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023
Find Rathard White in the apartment
The Texans under Ryans will run a fair amount of Cover 1. In that situation, Bucs running back Rathard White would be left one-on-one with a linebacker. In certain looks, he will have an added impact on that matchup, like the Panthers had on this play.
#Gobucks RB Rathard White has a chance to have a big day against HOU’s defense on Sunday. The Texans will leave plays in the flat open like this and go to C1 on a regular basis. pic.twitter.com/p3oo8miRHu
— Joshua Quaipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023
The Bucs can also defeat the Texans’ Cover 1 blitz scheme with well-timed screens, as they did last week against the Bills.
I talked about this a few weeks ago on the Audibles and Analytics podcast. @LedyardNFLDraft If the Bucs’ offense can better incorporate the screen game, it could unlock something new.Great play calling and design @DcoChanes And a great performance from the players. pic.twitter.com/gvW77rHcCX
— Joshua Quaipo (@josh_queipo) October 29, 2023
Prepare hot leads
Bucks QB Baker Mayfield – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Part of the Bucks’ offensive troubles this year have to do with the team’s lack of answers when the defense blitzes. Some plays don’t have hot reads built in or Mayfield doesn’t check them.
So even if a free rusher were able to break through, Mayfield doesn’t have an outlet to quickly get rid of the ball. So he has to make things happen by manipulating unblocked defenders, getting out of structure, and scrambling, or the whole thing turns into a negative play. Houston doesn’t blitz much compared to the rest of the league.
Houston’s blitz rate is 24.3%, while the league average is around 25%. Pro Football Reference. But when they do blitz, it’s very effective. Over 54% of his blitzes for the Texans this year have generated quarterback pressure. Mayfield is completing barely above 50% of his passes this year when pressured.
HOU successfully disguises your Sims and sends them a blitz. The Bucks will have to look for them and prepare a hot lead to counter them. pic.twitter.com/zf3zVq8032
— Joshua Quaipo (@josh_queipo) November 4, 2023
