CNN
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Two years ago, Moscow looked to the US-German conflict over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as a litmus test for transatlantic power.
Russia has invested heavily in a 750-mile undersea pipeline linking it to Germany and wanted to increase global sales and increase its economic influence over Europe and its power-hungry heavy industry. . Germany, a major consuming country, was on board from the beginning. Washington was not.
The U.S. did not want new high-capacity undersea supplies to replace the old overland route through Ukraine, providing important revenues for the increasingly western-leaning Kyiv leadership.
Russia reasoned that if Washington blocked Nord Stream 2 and eventually contained it, it would show that European power no longer went through Berlin, but actually went through the White House. bottom.
Fast forward two years and reading of the post-Angela Merkel trans-Atlantic dynamic, especially Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failed invasion of Ukraine, is the most pressing political issue plaguing the Kremlin. became one of the problems.
In the words of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, his refusal to be “pushed” to send tanks to Ukraine instead stood his ground, risking Putin’s wrath against Joe Biden. It was the request of the president to participate in the venture, demonstrating transatlantic power. The dynamic has shifted.
Europe has been slow to respond to the deep fissures in US politics and the uncertainty that another president like Trump could bring to allies. Decades of reasonably unshakable trust, if not total trust, have been supplanted by stubborn European pragmatism, with Germany leading the way.
Merkel was Europe’s moral compass. Scholz has found unexpected metal in his heavy, often stop/go/wait signaling coalition, earning thunderous applause in the German Bundestag on Wednesday, a rare example of his steely leadership. I showed you the moment
At a summit last March, NATO leaders agreed to equip, equip and train Ukraine to NATO standards. Although it would not become a member state, the message to Moscow was clear. In the years to come, Ukraine will look and fight like her NATO.
Ukraine’s ongoing transformation from a former Soviet military to a NATO clone is not just about mechanisms and diplomacy to acquire tanks, fighting vehicles, air defenses and artillery, but about 1 billion people in NATO member states. It was also about bringing people in with politicians. Scholz made that point in Congress on Wednesday.
“Trust us,” he said. “I’m not putting you in danger.” He detailed how his government had already dealt with the Russian aggression, and how fears of freezing winters and economic collapse hadn’t materialized. “The government has dealt with the crisis,” he said, adding, “We are in a much better position.”
The applause at each stage of his carefully crafted speech spoke as loudly as his words. In short, Scholze does what is right for Germany, and is deeply opinionated on how much Ukraine should be supported, which typically hates war, shows off its power, kills Russians, and can anger the Kremlin. divided.
But if in Europe Scholz appears to have fought the vestiges of influence over America in the Ukrainian War, Moscow does not expect his new vigor to change much.
Andrei Kortunov, secretary-general of the Russian Council on International Affairs, said that in Moscow, “most people believe that Biden is in control.”
Indeed, rather than Germany becoming more influential, “American leadership looks stronger than ever,” he says.
Nevertheless, Russian diplomats have vented their animosity to the West in public on both sides of the Atlantic.
Russia’s ambassador to Germany said the move to send tanks to Berlin was “extremely dangerous” and accused Scholz of “refusing to admit it”. [Germany’s] We hold our people historically accountable for the horrific crimes of Nazism. Meanwhile, his Washington counterparts have accused the White House of being “blatant provocation” and Biden of being intent on Russia’s “strategic defeat.”
Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and deputy chairman of the National Security Council, said Russia would never allow defeat and would use nuclear weapons if threatened.
Oddly enough, the near-Kremlin remarks are not belligerent, suggesting that Putin is probably chilling towards nuclear escalation.
In response to Biden and Scholz’ decision on tanks, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it would “add tension to the continent, but it cannot prevent Russia from achieving our goals.” .
In a mixed message are some Muscovites CNN spoke to after the announcement by Biden and Scholz about the tank chaos. Some said Russia would win anyway, lumping the US and Germany together as losers, but a good percentage worried about the war, dejected by the mass death toll, and Putin ignoring their concerns. I was dissatisfied with this.
It’s unclear to what extent Scholz is aware of Putin’s declining popularity, or if he believes it’s relevant at this point, but his act of sending tanks is a sign of Putin’s iron grip on power. may help alleviate the
Lagging behind in recognizing the Russian threat, Germany turning around, revitalizing its own armed forces and stepping up arms supplies to Ukraine, pragmatist Mr. Scholz now sees Germany playing a very important role. suggests that it is fulfilling He said Germany would “coordinate” the supply of Leopard 2s to Ukraine from its allies. This is the power invested in him by German law to prevent buyers of the country’s combat hardware from transferring it to third countries.
With Scholz at the helm of diplomacy, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky finds his territorial ambitions to restore the entire sovereignty of Ukraine, including Crimea, constrained ahead of peace talks with Putin. maybe. The German Chancellor is at the forefront of friendly leaders who want a speedy end to the war and the restoration of economic stability to Europe.
Longer discussions about the next military action against Ukraine could take place, signaling to Zelensky that arms supplies would be more under German control and less unilaterally led by Washington. It will be.
This shift in power dynamics may not change the way wars are waged, but it does affect the contours of the final agreement and has the potential to shape a lasting peace when it comes. there is.
