backs wide receiver chris godwin This represents the largest pending internal free agent the team has for the 2025 offseason. There appears to be significant mutual interest between him and Tampa Bay, who are reuniting on a third NFL contract.
But what that deal would look like is an interesting proposition. I would like to walk you through my process of trying to determine what a fair deal between the two sides would look like.
Chris Godwin’s current 3 year comp
In NFL contract negotiations, both sides at the negotiating table try to find comparable players who have already signed contracts as a baseline for their offers. When making predictions, I like to look at the last three years of sample size to find the most similar players in the metrics that best correlate with contract history.
In the wide receiver market, these metrics are catches, receiving yards, yards per route run, and touchdown catches. Over the past three seasons, Chris Godwin has had 237 catches for 2,623 yards, 1.89 yards per route run and 10 touchdowns. The three closest recipient countries in terms of production for contract years beyond 2020 are:
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Bucks WR Chris Godwin – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Jarvis Landry (2022) – 207 catches, 2,584 yards, 1.99 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns
- Cole Beasley (2022) – 231 catches, 2,438 yards, 1.70 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns
- Jacobi Meyers (2023) – 209 catches, 2,398 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, 8 touchdowns
All three signed contracts with an average annual salary of 2.28% of the salary cap in the year they signed. Applying this directly to the likely $275 million salary cap in 2025 would result in an APY of just over $6.25 million. The formula I use estimates Godwin’s APY range to be between $11.7 million and $13 million.
Interestingly, all three of these receivers are primarily slot players, with Godwin enjoying his best season playing in the slot. And since 62% of Godwin’s snaps last year were in this slot, it will only be 55% for his career. Myers has shot 51% for his career, Beasley has shot 86% and Landry has shot 67.2%.
Chris Godwin’s predictions for 2024
However, as everyone knows, most of Chris Godwin’s production was hampered by a season-ending ankle dislocation in Week 7. Looking at Godwin’s three-season production heading into 2024, we get high numbers of 285 catches, 3,150 yards, and 1.85 yards per catch. RR and 10 touchdowns. His three closest comps from that period are:
- Michael Pittman Jr. (2024) – 296 catches, 3,159 yards, 1.79 yds/rr, 14 touchdowns
- Robert Woods (2020) – 232 catches, 3,134 yards, 2.01 yds/rr, 13 touchdowns
- DJ Moore (2022) – 246 catches, 3,525 yards, 2.03 yds/rr, 12 touchdowns
The average APY for these three receivers as a percentage of their cap in the year they signed was just over 9%. Applying this to the estimated 2025 salary cap results in an APY of approximately $25 million. My prediction was that he estimated exactly that.
I wonder what happened…
Follow an alternate reality where Chris Godwin never got injured against the Ravens and continued to maintain his blazing speed all season. He was projected to finish 2024 with 121 catches, 1,399 yards, and 12 touchdowns, averaging 2.36 yards per route run. These numbers bring his three-year totals to 308 catches, 3,446 yards, 1.98 yards/RR, and 17 touchdowns. His three closest comps are:
- DJ Moore (2024) – 252 catches, 3,409 yards, 1.98 yds/rr, 19 touchdowns
- Allen Robinson II (2021) – 255 catches, 3,151 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, 17 touchdowns
- Keenan Allen (2020) – 303 catches, 3,788 yards, 2.34 yds/rr, 18 touchdowns
The average APY for these contracts is 9.9% as a percentage of the cap. This equates to $27.25 million per year, which was projected to be $30 million with our projection system.
Find the right value in light of what happened
Bucks WR Chris Godwin – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Unfortunately injury for Chris Godwin did The $27.25 to $30 million range is completely off the table. A range of $23 million to $25 million is possible, but unlikely at this point, especially considering Mike Evans will make $23 million in 2024.
The projected number I settled on for Godwin is $19 million per year. This is an average of the 2024 forecast of $25 million and the 2025 high forecast of $13 million. That comes out to $19 million a year.
From a length standpoint, the sweet spot receivers are trying to hit on contracts is three years. Godwin himself signed a three-year deal worth $20 million per season, with his last contract ending in 2022. And with his age-29 season coming up in 2025, Godwin will likely want a deal longer than one or two years.
And the Bucks wouldn’t want to give him more than four years at this point in his career. So another three-year deal is a nice combination of safety for Godwin and flexibility for the team.
Other notes
Bucks WR Chris Godwin – Photo courtesy of USA Today
The Bucks could save some cap space if they can re-sign Chris Godwin before February 20th. That’s when his current contract expires and his 2026 and 2027 voidable payments accelerate toward the 2025 cap. However, this does not mean that an extension is a foregone conclusion. Of course, the extension will not be decided by that date.
The Bucks have indicated they won’t be forced to rush into negotiations because of the deadline. And there are many other schemes the team can implement to create cap space without resorting to extending Godwin.
It’s also worth mentioning that using the franchise tag on Godwin is highly unlikely. Although there are general tags for wide receivers, $25.7 million; The Bucks have already teamed up with Godwin twice, first in 2021 and second in 2022.
of NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement A player tagged three times will receive 120% of the average of the top five salaries at that position ($32,200,500), 144% of that player’s previous salary ($28,800,000), or the highest You are required to be paid one of the average salaries of the top five people in the position. (QB, $55.62 million) in the league. These are prohibitive costs for Tampa Bay, so Godwin could get the franchise tag in 2025 as the team’s salary cap could be clogged with a very large cap number on the books at the start of free agency. Please don’t expect that.
Projections should be treated as ranges
Look elsewhere and you’ll see other values that Chris Godwin signs up to. I have him for 19 million APY. Pro Football Focus has him 20 million dollars. Spotrac has him $22.5 million.
I’m clearly lower on the totem pole, but there’s definitely a range between my valuation and Spotrac’s highest value. A variety of factors will determine where the final number falls within that range, including warranties and cash flow.
I hope this has given you a glimpse of how these ratings work. If Godwin reaches free agency, it will be interesting to see what type of command he ends up with, or how much he re-signs with Tampa Bay before free agency begins.
