The housing market has been turbulent in recent years, making weekly data more important. This is why we created Home Market Tracker, a weekly analysis of buying apps, home inventory and mortgage rates, published every Monday.
I want to focus on these three lines of data because they give us a glimpse into the future. Don’t wait for existing home sales data that may be outdated if the market changes. In a normal market, you don’t have to worry about weekly data so much, but we don’t live in normal times.
Last year was the most chaotic housing year I’ve ever seen: market dynamics changed three times and mortgage rates underwent historic shifts. 3.27% best 7.37%Then those rates went down 1.25%changed the demand data, but it rose again after a short period of time.
Checking these three rows of data is important for the following reasons:
Purchasing application data is demand trends that look ahead 30 to 90 days. The data hit a historic year in 2022, with a waterfall collapse that wiped out the index for eight years in one year. This trending index has been at the core of the housing economy for over a decade, and the data line can be confusing without adjustments.
of Altos Research Weekly inventory data Look ahead for inventory data in sales reports. This allows you to know how forward-looking demand will affect your inventory channel before the sales report arrives.
10 year yield Shows where mortgage rates are going. Ever since I started predicting mortgage rates in my forecast articles in 2015, I’ve always started talking about where I believe 10-year yields will go that year. The relationship between 10-year yields and mortgage rates has been solid since 1971.
This weekly tracker explores weekly bond market movements and what drives next week’s mortgage rates, as well as how the previous week’s mortgage rates impacted the other data lines we track each week. increase.
Purchasing application data
There were no purchase requisition reports last week, as the update report for the last two weeks arrives on Wednesday. After his CPI report drop in November, we got some interesting data. For months, purchase requisition data showed a steep year-on-year decline, with weekly data not increasing at all while mortgage rates rose sharply.
The second half of 2022 was a tough time for the housing market until November. After interest rates began to decline and plateaued with some consistency, we saw a positive trend in purchase requisition data over a seven-week period.
This also means that completed sales from these applications will not appear in November or as part of the existing home sales report in December. But his January and February existing home sales reports, which come out in February and March, should stop the existing home sales data from bleeding.
The seasonality of purchase application data traditionally means that volume increases from the second week of January to the first week of May. Trading volumes traditionally decline after May, so it’s important to show some discipline in reading the data in the first few months of the year.
For most of 2022, we were working from a significant drop in purchase application data, so context is important. But what we’ve seen since November should be encouraging for the housing market. For now, think about stabilization and work from a low bar. In 2023 he will get this data one week at a time.
Remember, just one year into 2022 has erased seven years of growth in this data line. This was an epic dive on Dataline.
weekly housing inventory
Inventory has been significantly reduced over the past few weeks. Most of that decline can be attributed to the seasonal declines we see each year, but some can be attributed to increased demand.
Let’s connect the dots here: On Oct. 28, Altos Research’s weekly data reported a peak in total single-family home inventory. 577,172. As of last week, the inventory was 490,809. Stocks traditionally decrease in the fall and winter. However, the final two weeks of 2022 may see some decline related to the increased demand for purchase requisition data seen since mid-November.
We are now in 2023 and total inventory is low by any measure of the existing home sales market.on a historical basis using data from National Real Estate Associationtotal inventory has more capacity than the two existing home sales reports. One million.
If this happens, it will be the second time in recent history that we have launched less than 1 million active listings in a single year. Today, he has over 330 million people in America, and compare this to the active list in the 1980s.Now he’s only running on the November report and the total inventory is running at 1.14 million And fell for 4 months.
I don’t really like the fact that nationally, total housing inventory is below 2019 levels. A home market back to 2019 levels is great in my opinion, and as long as mortgage rates remain high, we don’t have to worry about prices getting out of control. It’s fine for now, but this is what I monitor all year long.
of 10-Year Yield and Mortgage Interest Rates
Towards the end of the year, mortgage rates rose as 10-year yields fell and rose themselves.home loan interest rate 7.37% on October 20th, just revert 6.12% December 15th. they got up 6.54% end the year.
There are several labor market reports this week that could affect mortgage rates. Especially Jobs and his BLS Job Report for Friday. However, this weekly tracker also looks at the first billing data released every Thursday morning.
I’ve been writing about the Fed’s pivot for the last few months, but I doubt we’ll see it until the labor market collapses. This means that the first bill will exceed his 4-week moving average of 323,000.Recent headlines 225,000, the 4-week moving average was 221,000.
Another line of labor market data to track is ongoing claims. People who have applied for unemployment benefits and haven’t found a job in a week. This number has been growing more steadily lately.
My 2023 Predictions article will be published on Wednesday and will detail my thoughts on the bond market, inflation and what to look for in 2023. The above is what I focus on all year long.
In summary, no purchase requisition data was reported last week, but the trend was positive, with home inventories declining amid falling mortgage rates. We’ll see if the recent rate hike ends this streak of positive data.
The new year is upon us, so it’s time to gear up for another year of weekly drama. We’ll focus on future data so you can understand what’s going on before existing home sales reports are released.
