If demand increases, we are fully committed to seasonal increases in demand for purchasing applications. This means that the high volume period for this data line is between his 2nd week of January and his 1st week of May. After May, the total amount traditionally decreases. We are working from the shallow bar of this index. In 1 years of 2022, he has been robbed of 7 years of growth. The bar is very low and you can trip over it. However, with that being said, starting with the Nov. 9, 2022 waterfall dive, the purchasing app is starting to improve. We focus on year-over-year data, Not only did this data trend line stop the bleeding, but it managed to bounce back from the recently made lows even with the 10% weekly drop last week.
weekly housing inventory
A few weeks ago, we were told there was a slight increase in inventory and a slight decrease the following week. Altos’ weekly inventory data has been significantly declining for several weeks in a row.This week’s inventory has decreased 8,664 units from the previous week.
Altos Research Weekly Chart
Hopefully, 2023 will see a seasonal inventory push earlier than in the last two years. It is a small blessing to have more stock this year than last year. Last year, inventory decreased during this period. Mortgage rates were still much lower last year.
From November 9, 2022, the requisition data started to improve, so we are now in line with the sales data for 30 to 90 days ahead. Demand may have improved slightly, so inventories may be somewhat lower now. We recently saw pending home sales data turn positive for the first time in months.
- Weekly stock change (January 27-February 3, 2023): Fell From 465,654 tonso 456,990
- Same week last year (28 Jan – 4 Feb): 271,954 To 255, 662
One of the concerns I’ve had with the housing market is the inventory channel in 2020 and beyond. With interest rates below his 4%, this caused massive housing inflation. Interest rates are currently over 6%, but we won’t see the same type of housing inflation data until interest rates rise above 5.875% in 2020-2022. If demand recovers and inventory levels do not grow, we will try to keep them below all-time lows. As we saw in 2020, 2021 and early 2022, when mortgage rates were low, there shouldn’t be a problem with inflation now, and interest rates shouldn’t go above 6%. As you can see below, there aren’t many housing products available in a country of 330 million people.
NAR Inventory Level: 970,000
Due to the seasonal inventory push, we should have more inventory soon. I hope so. The question is, how high is the demand at inventory levels right now? And if new listings data isn’t growing much this year, should I be concerned? I would be concerned if I were you. Freddie Mac’s excellent chart shows the problem of rates being too high as new listing data dwindles. When I’m rooting for more inventory, I’m rooting for more sellers who are home buyers after the sale. This brings us back to the normal housing market.
One of the things we’ve seen since COVID-19 is that when new listings data dwindles, demand can plummet like a waterfall. It was a global pandemic at first, but as people returned to normal, new listing data increased as did sales. In 2022, the price was too high for people to sell or buy another home after the sale.
10-Year Yield and Mortgage Interest Rates
We had a lot of action last week, but again it didn’t get us anywhere. The part has recovered.
I have long emphasized breaking the following 3.42% It’s been a rough decade, and I jokingly brought Gandalf from The Lord of the Rings. Well, for a while I couldn’t do that. Mortgage rates fell below 6% last week for the first time in a long time, 5.99% To 6.19% after job data stronger than expected.
Part of my 10-year yield forecast for 2023 is that if the economy stays strong, the 10-year yield range will be 3.21%-4.25%means mortgage interest rates between 5.75%-7.25%A weak economy could drive bond yields down sharply 2.72%, Bring home loan interest rates closer Five%. So far, economic data has been solid, with recent positive data from the housing market as builders confidence and pending home sales data show growth from the spectacular plunge. There are several.
a week ahead
We had a lot of very positive labor data last week. Over 11 million jobs, less than 200,000 unemployment claims, and an unemployment rate of 3.4%. Inflation is still low, and so is wage growth. Recession unemployment is needed to bring inflation down.
This week will be a week with very little economic data. We have trade balance data on Tuesday, key unemployment insurance claims data on Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Index on Friday. Since the Fed’s entire pivot is based solely on the collapse of the labor market, we always want to keep an eye on unemployment claims. 323,000 4-week moving average is far from where it is today 191,750. The Fed’s focus on inflation and wage growth allows us to get positive economic data without worrying that the Fed needs to be more aggressive.
I think it’s funny that the people who said the economy was in recession last year are asking the Fed to raise rates more aggressively because the economy is too strong and inflation could go up. I know he’s on Recession Watch from Aug 5, 2022, but the two things it takes to create a softer landing or a milder recession are: Same as what you wrote.
With that in mind, how does this reverse? Well, here are two quick answers:
1. rate goes down to put the housing sector back together
2. Inflation growth slows and the Fed halts and reverses rate hikes, similar to 2018.
Inflation has eased and mortgage rates have eased from recent highs, but the Fed continues to raise rates. They are nearly complete, but nowhere near the reduction rate. It doesn’t have everything you want, but it’s a start. When it comes to housing and the future, it’s all about mortgage rates and it’s important to monitor weekly inflation and growth economic data.
