Some of the changes in new property data also affect active property data. Two weeks ago, the number of active listings was 343; Active listings increased this week 9,470. The two week average is 4,906. As I have highlighted, weak demand can lead to increased inventory over time. It’s just that growth in 2023 will be much slower than what was seen in 2022. My happy zone for active listing growth is 11,000-17,000 per week, but inventory growth has been too slow this year.
according to Altos Research:
- Weekly inventory changes: (September 1st to September 8th): Inventory has increased 509,156 to 518,626
- Same week of the previous year (September 2nd to September 9th): In stock 547,222 to 552,042
- The bottom price of inventory in 2022 is 240,194
- So far, the inventory peaks for 2023 are: 518,626
- Check out this week’s active list for context. 2015 was 1,201,196
One of the data lines we plan to include each week going forward is price reduction percentage. Historically, one-third of all homes have price reductions throughout the year. Last week’s price decline was 4% lower than last year. However, there are still affordability issues in the housing market, which has seen more significant price declines than from 2015 to 2017.At that time, we 33%; On the other hand, in 2018 and 2019 36%.
- 2021 28%
- 2022 41%
- 2023 37%
New listing data should be calmer now
As already mentioned, the recent data are extreme. You can see this in the weekly data below. Now that Labor Day and the start of school are behind us, we can pay attention to whether there is a new uptrend or downtrend in the new listing data. I expected new listing data for the second half of this year to be flat to positive year-over-year. However, we don’t have that data yet.
- August 18th: 60,295
- August 25th: 55,291
- September 1st: 60,004
- September 8th: 50,212
- September 15th: 61,852
Mortgage interest rates and bond markets
Mortgage interest rates rose slightly from 7.22% to 7.29% But we are in a fierce battle over the 10-year bond yield. A few weeks ago, after the 10-year Treasury yield closed above my peak forecast level. 4.25%my only caveat is 4.34% level — this was the highest intraday value in 2022.
Since then, the 10-year Treasury yield has attempted to break above this level several times, but has been rebuffed each time. It is important to maintain the level below 4.34%. That’s because if it breaches that level, it could lead to more selling in the bond market and cause mortgage rates to rise. But sticking to my 2023 forecast, we are at peak levels in 2023, so I believe there is limited upside potential for yields unless the economy picks up.
Purchase application data
Purchase request data 1% higher Last week, we did a tally from the beginning of the year to today. 16 positive, 18 minus print and a flat week. Starting on November 9, 2022, 23 positive print vs 18 minus print and A flat week.
Rising interest rates have slowed demand, and purchasing apps have returned to 1995 levels. When mortgage rates fell from his 7.37% to 5.99% at the end of last year, there were three months of solid positive growth, but after that interest rates were too high to foster growth in this data line. The data speed has slowed down because the rate is above his 7%. Home sales aren’t plummeting like they were last year, but they’re also not growing.
Next week: Housing report documents will be posted
This week, builder confidence data on housing starts and existing home sales (which have been trending downward recently) will be released. A leading economic index will be released this week, but the economy has been on a long-term downward trend. Monday’s HousingWire Daily podcast outlines how close we are to a recession and what to focus on over the next 12 months.
