Hollinger: NBA free-agency losers? Not quite, but these teams have questions

Let’s not call this a “free agency losers” column, at least for now. After all, the landscape changed in the first few days of July.

Picking losers in free agency isn’t as complete as it used to be. Because it’s a lot harder to really “lose” in free agency than it was just a few years ago. For starters, there are far fewer star players to change teams in free agency, so teams are far less likely to stagnate due to key players leaving without compensation.

Second, between the new CBA and the general fact that teams are getting a little bit smarter about long-term deals, there’s just a huge drop in absurdly enthusiastic free agent deals compared to 2019. . It was Overhand’s last year. It was part of his old CBA contract that was functionally non-expandable, and as we mentioned earlier this week, the cap space has been used for vastly different uses since then.

In today’s day and age, we often see two situations instead: 1) Teams are bound by rules and their own tax affairs to do little, 2) Teams overpay their own players instead of others’ players.

Both of these situations stand out when looking at which teams have made the least progress in free agency so far – with over three months to go and the trade season just starting, the comparison There are still a few key free agents with big asterisks left.

Again, I hesitate to call these teams “losers.” Because the words just don’t fit like they used to. Despite this, I think some teams may still not feel good about the summer.

Of all the teams we could rank as “losers,” the Raptors remain number one for three fairly obvious reasons. 1) they didn’t want to lose Fred VanVleet, 2) they didn’t want to lose, 3) they’re a great way to replace him without a player. While signing Dennis Schroder was a bandaid to get him through the season (and was clearly the best option given the money Toronto had), it doesn’t make up for the loss of an All-Star player. never.

What’s even more painful is that Houston’s offer wasn’t really that outlandish. Up to 2 years plus 3rd year with team option. This should probably be an affordable amount for Toronto, and considering the number of cap-room teams that need the help of point guards, it probably should have been something the Raptors had planned to return last season.

It leaves us wondering if just one wrinkle—Gary Trent Jr. agreeing to a $19 million deal—really sent them off their feet. In doing so, he made matching with his VanVleet max offer a tax affair. That would put the Raptors over $10 million before spending a single penny on the mid-level exception (this figure would be the same as the Raptors waiving Thaddeus Young and signing Schrader in place of VanVleet). I’m assuming it wasn’t). Had he been on the roster, the number would have been even higher.

There were hidden costs when torrents opted in. Realistically, VanVleet’s max would be spending the entire MLE as an over-apron team (he could have done a deal with Jalen McDaniels on the tax MLE instead of semi-annually), And perhaps to reduce the tax burden to a more reasonable figure for a mid-tier team, it will shoulder draft funds again. Chris Boucher’s salary dumping, or anything like it, wouldn’t have been cheap.

A more interesting question is whether the Raptors can shift to a more viable roster than one-on-one 6-foot-9 players with below-average shooting ability. If Toronto can turn Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby into good shooting guards, then 20-20, looking back, VanVleet could be a pretty good deal. It remains to be seen who that player is and what kind of deals are possible. I’m not breaking news here, but resentment of the Raptors in trade talks remains a theme when talking to other front offices.

With all of this in mind, I’m still a little surprised that Toronto, knowing that VanVleet would likely be tradeable later, just shut up and didn’t agree to pay him. there is So this was Masai Ujiri’s calling card back in Denver. Can we call it Mr. Masui Memorial Delayed Sign and Trade? I am perplexed.

In the void, the Pelicans made the right decision to turn down a fourth-year option now to lock Herb Jones into his next contract (reportedly four years, $54 million). The problem is that Jones needed a $10 million raise this season, and the Pelicans simply don’t have the money.

Even after firing Garrett Temple on Wednesday, New Orleans still expects to hit the tax line by $5 million if it fills the final two spots on its roster with a veteran minimum contract. This is a franchise, so to speak. be disgusted That means the Pells are still likely to move to either Kira Ruiz Jr. or Jonas Valanciunas just to get past the bottom. How much it will cost is still a question.

In another world, the Pelicans could have used some of their MLE to sign another veteran guard and reduce their reliance on high-minute rotation spots Dyson Daniels and Jordan Hawkins. And what about the cost? Jones’ transfer fee may have been higher next year, but it’s hard to say whether he’s been offered significantly more than MLE, especially as a non-shooter. Historically, MLE has been pretty much marginal for teams to get this kind of player, even the most elite of defenders, if they can’t make room on the floor. Additionally, Jones remained a restricted free agent, and the Pell family’s matching rights would have terrified suitors.

It’s still halfway through here, but a trade could be on the table that would allow New Orleans to get Jones for tomorrow and get the most out of the team for the 2023-24 season. But now I feel half too cute.

Speaking of which… the Kings will execute the Pelicans move on a bigger scale, using the cap space to renegotiate and extend Domantas Sabonis, giving him $195 million in new funding, plus an additional 4 I signed a contract to stay with the Royal Purple for a year.

most given Any While other teams will pay Sabonis $193 million next summer, it’s worth noting that the Kings are currently pledging $195 million. Normally, when a team signs a one-year extension to a player who isn’t on the A-list like this, they can negotiate an even shorter extension.

The Kings essentially went the other way, paying extra for privileges that would give Sabonis up to four years, including giving up this year’s first-round pick to clear additional cap room. (Rishon Holmes’ deal was apparently unconditional, but that didn’t deter Sacramento’s other moves this year or next.)

“Who did you bid with?” The question looms large here. Sabonis is not Jaylen Brown. He’s had a great year, but there are no other 29 teams eager to sign him. That’s because he’s a center, not a winger, and doesn’t fit perfectly on many (most?) competing rosters. it is better to Once you get him on offense, you can’t replace him on defense. Among the subset that even had space, it’s somewhat unlikely that a year from now any team would offer him a maximum four-year deal.

Sacramento locked that price a year ago, forgoing a first-round pick to do so. The Kings, on the other hand, will be below Sabonis’ true max over the next four years, but not by much ($3 million to $600 a year, depending on how much cap room the Kings have). million) will be added in 2023-24 and what will be the incentives for that extension).

And the lingering question is… was he really at such an escape risk that he would need to secure more than $50 million in 2027-2028? right now?

Regardless of what you think of the Sabonis deal, some people I respect disagree with me on this subject, but Jerami Grant’s deal is objectively the worst on many levels. It seems to me. The Blazers agreed to a five-year, $160 million deal with Grant under one premise: a “do it all for the dam” approach that losing Grant would never be unbearable, and would be out of the deal. It turned out that an agreement was reached within hours. They were working under completely different conditions. In a future without Lillard, it doesn’t make much sense to overpay to keep Grant.

Some might argue that Grant’s contract may still have some trade value at that price, but it only returns draft capital in the event of a harmful contract coming back. “Of course they can get their first player, but they’re also going to get Ben Simmons” — that’s the type of deal they get.

The Blazers could have had some room for negotiation on the matter, but they seem reluctant to push themselves too hard while walking on Lillard’s eggshells. If they could have done this again, they probably could have taken a tougher stance on Grant, knowing that walking by him wouldn’t be the end of the world. In particular, narrowing him down to something more like Kyle Kuzma (he got four years and $104 million from Wizards) would probably make him more marketable for trading purposes.

At the very least, Portland should be able to tap out cash in the Grant deal, which hopefully will improve the value proposition over time, rather than worsen it. The Blazers are currently below the taxable line and believe they will have more leeway if the Lillard trade goes through, leaving Grant to start the 2023-24 season with $36 million and $8 in the 2027-28 season. % down to $27.6 million.

The Nuggets are going to be a really good team next year no matter what happens. Because the Nuggets’ 5 best players are better than your 5 best players. But what happens after that point on the roster is anyone’s guess at this point.

The Nuggets faced a tough point guard market with no real way to stop Bruce Brown from leaving. But there’s a fair amount of doubt that the taxpayer’s mid-level exemption would have been better spent on a true wing than paying Reggie Jackson for a two-year deal.

The Nuggets avoided the bet by putting future draft money into this year’s draft and picking three players in the late pick. Especially since they seemed to be more focused on picking older players, so it’s clear that at least one of them is expected to be able to contribute in a proper way. But even high-draft rookies rarely contribute at the rotation level of playoff teams in their first season, and historically, the only real distinguishing feature of older rookie draft picks is that they … being older.

It’s also perhaps surprising that better wings didn’t come together to play a year in Denver and earn a Brown-type salary. Phoenix seemed to have gotten the player they wanted on a minimal deal, but the Nuggets were left with Justin Holiday. Justin Holiday had his salary ditched by the Hawks last season and was quickly pulled out of the rotation when the Mavs acquired him in the buyout market.

With Jeff Green also gone, the Nuggets are considering defending their title with a second unit of Jackson, Christian Brown, Julian Stroller, Peyton Watson and Zeke Nagy. Wow. If it makes you feel better, you can insert names like Vlatko Cancar, Jalen Pickett, or Holiday, but the point is the same. The front office has gotten a ton of draft picks and made some great lemonade since last offseason, so it’s a respectable track record. But at this point, it’s fair to question nearly every bench spot on Denver’s roster.

(Jerami Grant top photo: Stephen Lew / USA Today)