It’s not yet clear if we’ll have another “sold-out summer,” but it’s clear we’re having an expensive summer, at least on the airline side.
If you’re looking for summer flights, you’ve likely run into some serious sticker shock.
Fares for flights across the board are higher than they have been since the pandemic began, and in many cases have passed pre-pandemic summer levels.
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There are two main factors driving the price up. For both, it’s a good idea to finalize your plans early if you’re planning a trip when the weather is warm.
Fares are getting higher and demand is soaring
For a myriad of reasons, airlines are charging higher flight prices this summer than in the past.
Fares for flights this summer are down from both 2022 and 2019, the last year before the pandemic, according to data provided by travel information company and airline ticket processor Airlines Reporting Corporation. It has risen significantly across the board.
Average fares for the top 10 summer destinations are between 9% and 37% higher than in 2022, according to ARC data.
Prices have increased further compared to 2019, with average fares for each destination increasing between 23% and 54%.
| rank | Destination (airport) | average ticket price | change vs 2022 | Changes from 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Cancun International Airport (CUN). | $599. | +10%. | +40%. |
| 2. | Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA). | $478. | +31%. | +38%. |
| 3. | Orlando International Airport (MCO). | $425. | +12%. | +36%. |
| Four. | Rome Fiumicino Leonardo da Vinci Airport (FCO). | $1,683. | +13%. | +44%. |
| Five. | Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). | $525. | +37%. | +51%. |
| 6. | Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL). | $787. | +23%. | +23%. |
| 7. | Heathrow Airport (LHR). | $1,662. | +15%. | +54%. |
| 8. | Boston Logan International Airport (BOS). | $456. | +19%. | +39%. |
| 9. | Punta Cana International Airport (PUJ). | $790. | +17%. | +24%. |
| Ten. | Harry Reid International Airport (LAS). | $471. | +9%. | +47%. |
This data reflects tickets sold in the United States and processed through ARC’s systems between January 1, 2023 and April 6, 2023.
Demand has increased since the pandemic began. Airline capacity overall is slightly below his 2019 levels, but a supply/demand mismatch is driving prices up. In fact, the industry group American Travel Association says domestic leisure demand is above pre-pandemic levels.
ARC’s chief commercial officer, Steve Solomon, told TPG that supply and demand asymmetries were the main reason for the high prices.
“Increased demand is partly responsible for higher airfares, as ticket sales to popular summer destinations continue to rise year-over-year,” Solomon said. “Demand, coupled with other factors such as higher labor costs, about 40% more jet fuel year-on-year and not all airlines operating at capacity levels in 2019, all contribute to higher prices travelers pay. It has contributed to the rise.”
People are booking their vacation flights early
Alongside increased demand, we are returning to pre-pandemic norms. Leisure travelers plan even further in advance.
During the first two summers after vaccination, travelers tended to finalize their plans at the last minute. Uncertainties surrounding case outbreaks, individual illnesses and infections, travel restrictions, and more have made consumers cautious about committing early. This was especially true if the reservation was non-refundable or could only be canceled in exchange for a credit.
In addition, business travel is still significantly reduced. Business travelers tend to book closer flights than vacationers and are typically less price sensitive, so airlines have increased fares as departure dates approach. As leisure’s booking curve shortened, these last-minute prices tended to look more palatable.
Now, airlines are seeing the leisure booking curve stretch again. Combined with high demand, we are experiencing intense booking cycles.
For example, Delta Airlines said earlier this month: Around 75% of seats on international flights this summer have already been reserved. Many of these bookings were made in his February and his early March. At his JP Morgan conference on March 14, his CEO of Delta Air Lines, Ed Bastian, said the airline was experiencing record-breaking ticket sales.
“In the last 30 days, we had the best 10 days of sales in our history,” Bastian said.
“People remember how hard it was last spring and summer to get the trip they wanted to go,” he added. “So we’ve seen a bit of progress in terms of pre-booking.”
United Airlines also said that “a clear change in seasonality will further strengthen the peak of leisure demand from March to October,” CEO Scott Kirby said on this month’s earnings call.
United executive vice president Andrew Nocera added: “Both international and domestic flights are booking further ahead. International flights are more extreme than domestic flights.”
ARC data confirms that people are booking early, especially for international travel. The number of tickets sold by each of Europe’s top 10 destinations in March has increased dramatically in 2022.
| rank | Destination (airport) | YoY change in ticket sales |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Rome Fiumicino Leonardo da Vinci Airport (FCO). | +82%. |
| 2. | Heathrow Airport (LHR). | +63%. |
| 3. | Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG). | +66%. |
| Four. | Athens International Airport (ATH). | +52%. |
| Five. | Josep Tarradellas Barcelona El Prat Airport (BCN). | +86%. |
| 6. | Istanbul Airport (IST). | +183%. |
| 7. | Dublin Airport (DUB) | +10%. |
| 8. | Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (AMS). | +130%. |
| 9. | Adolfo Suarez Madrid-Barajas Airport (MAD). | +70%. |
| Ten. | Keflavik International Airport (KEF). | +74% |
Increased demand and early bookings in Europe may also reflect rising consumer confidence heading into 2022.
For the top 10 domestic destinations in the United States, changes are more complex compared to 2022, reflecting changing domestic travel preferences and increasing reliance on international travel.
| rank | Destination (airport) | YoY change in ticket sales |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA). | +52%. |
| 2. | Orlando International Airport (MCO). | -18%. |
| 3. | Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). | -1%. |
| Four. | Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL). | -6%. |
| Five. | Boston Logan International Airport (BOS). | +11%. |
| 6. | Harry Reid International Airport (LAS). | -11%. |
| 7. | O’Hare International Airport (ORD). | +11%. |
| 8. | San Francisco International Airport (SFO). | +2%. |
| 9. | Denver International Airport (DEN). | -1%. |
| Ten. | John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK). | +12%. |
Early planners are already getting the cheapest fares, and those that are left are more expensive.
Think ahead and plan your summer vacation
Still, according to Hayley Berg, chief economist at flight-booking service Hopper, there may be good news, but it depends on where you want to go.
Berg said prices for domestic flights in July have fallen slightly in recent weeks. She “seems typical of normal summer pricing, with highs in late winter and early spring and a drop in April or May before rising a month or so before departure date.” pointed out the pattern.
Overall average domestic fares in June and July were about 7% below 2022 levels, but remained 16% higher than the same period in 2019. Berg said he expects these prices to remain stable until a spike two to three weeks before departure. .
But if you’re looking to travel internationally for cheaper fares, you may be out of luck, Berg said.
“International airfares remain significantly higher than they were pre-pandemic given the short supply of seats, high demand and higher overall costs, including high jet fuel prices,” Berg said. Hopper’s report predicts that airfares to Europe over the next six months will be, on average, 24% higher than before the pandemic. Fares to Asia are expected to surge by about 60%.
That said, there are still sporadic sales going on, according to Katie Nastro, a travel expert at booking service Going.com.
“Airfares are subject to volatility, so today’s prices may not reflect tomorrow’s prices. , so it doesn’t mean flights won’t get discounted again, but it’s less likely that they’ll drop significantly.”
If you’ve been wanting to travel this summer and haven’t found the right price yet, don’t lose hope. The latest flight and hotel deals and everything you need to know about traveling this summer.
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