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Each of the three landmark 2022 Supreme Court decisions, each widely criticized by health experts as a threat to public health, The study was presented Thursday at the JAMA Network Open modeled their collective damage. The study found, even conservatively, that the decision will kill thousands and harm tens of thousands more over the next few years.
The three decisions include: The January 13, 2022 decision voided some workplace protections due to COVID-19 (National Federation of Independent Employers v Department of Labor Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)); one, on June 23, 2022, revoked some state laws restricting the carrying of handguns (New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v New York State Police Superintendent (Bruen)); the other on June 24, 2022, stripped of the constitutional right to abortion (Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization).
A group of health researchers led by Adam Gaffney at Harvard University modeled how these decisions might affect morbidity and mortality among Americans in the near future.
Death and damage caused by the new coronavirus
in order to osha In making this determination, the researchers used OSHA’s estimates of the number of workers who would have been vaccinated under OSHA’s Emergency Temporary Standards (ETS). The standard would require large employers to vaccinate their employees or take precautions such as masks and testing. OSHA estimated that the introduction of ETCs led to the vaccination of an additional 18.9 million people at the time, coinciding with the first Omicron wave.
Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the study authors modeled three scenarios with different timings during the January and February 2022 spikes in infections, and analyzed by vaccination status, age, and calendar week. Fatalities were assessed. during the implementation period. We also modeled hospital admissions, intensive care unit admissions, and ventilator use.
Between January and May 2022, disabling OSHA ETS killed between 980 and 2,940 people, with an intermediate estimate of 1,402 deaths. In addition, hospitalization estimates range from about 16,000 to 48,000, with an intermediate scenario of just under 23,000. The estimated number of cases requiring intensive care and ventilators is somewhere between about 4,000 and he 1,500 respectively.
Firearm Deaths and Injuries
in order to Bruen Based on this determination, the authors reviewed seven recent studies that estimated increases in firearm-related homicide rates associated with the removal of concealed-carry permits for handguns “issued in May.” Supreme Court rulings nullified these laws in six states (California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey) and the District of Columbia. Based on a literature review, Gaffney et al. estimated that the increase in homicide rates ranged from 3 to 9 percent. This set up his modeling of three scenarios with a mid-level increase of 6%, based on his CDC data on firearm-related homicide rates in the affected states and Washington, DC. They also modeled three scenarios in which the new policy would fully, partially, or not at all offset the impact of states revoking the law.
Overall, the intermediate scenario is estimated to add 152 additional firearm-related deaths and 377 additional non-fatal firearm injuries per year.
