As global attention and anxiety focus on the latest coronavirus Omicron subvariant BA.2.86, health officials and experts remain largely in the dark about how the highly mutated virus will unfold. I’m in
Earlier in the week, in a flurry of headlines, researchers released the virus’s genetic sequence to the public repository GISAID, even though the virus had already spread to at least four countries (Denmark, Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States). I had only one. ).As of this article’s publication on Friday, still Only 10 sequences From 5 countries (Denmark, Israel, UK, USA, South Africa). According to the World Health Organization, the variant was also confirmed by wastewater sampling in Thailand and Switzerland.
As Ars reported on Monday, BA.2.86 attracted attention for having a large number of mutations compared to the micron subvariant from which it was derived, BA.2. The number of critical spike protein mutations in BA.2.86 exceeded 30, comparable to that seen in the original ohmicron subvariant, BA.1, and subsequently caused a large number of cases and hospitalizations. The BA.2.86 spike mutation appears to be aimed at circumventing neutralizing antibody defenses built up by past infections and vaccination. But with detections so scant and patchy, it’s impossible to say whether this subspecies can cause waves of infection beyond its many micron subvariants. We also cannot yet determine whether it may cause more severe disease than other variants. So far, no serious symptoms have been reported from these 10 cases, but there are not enough data to draw any conclusions. As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in a risk assessment Wednesday, it “too early to know“Effect of BA.2.86 on infection and disease severity.
The slow flow of data on BA.2.86 is part of a large and dramatic plunge in COVID-19 surveillance and reporting in general. In October last year, Maria van Kerkhove, WHO’s COVID-19 technical director, said: “The number of sequences assessed globally and by our expert network has decreased by more than 90 percent since the beginning of the year. It limits our capabilities.”I actually track each of these [omicron subvariants]. ”
Since then, the genetic surveillance situation has gotten even worse. At a press conference Friday morning, Van Kelknow stressed that even basic reporting is failing. WHO currently has infection data from only 103 of the 234 countries and territories. Only 54 countries report deaths, only 19 report hospitalization rates, and he only 17 report data on the use of intensive care.
“The impact of COVID-19 around the world is still uncertain,” she said.
critical monitoring
Due to the lack of data, we are tracking trends and health effects (possibly due to new variants), let alone properly monitoring new variants, so that people get the care they need. van Kerkhove stressed that it would be impossible.
Uncertainty remains about what impact (if any) BA.2.86 will have, but this sparse oversight will allow health authorities to prevent early infection if a worst-case scenario variant occurs. We will have fewer chances to know more people, more serious illness and more deaths.
Countries have made great efforts to build monitoring and reporting systems during the emergency phase of the pandemic, but those critical tools are rapidly declining. However, the virus continues to spread in all countries and the scant data available to us point to an increase in hospitalizations.In the United States, the number of new hospitalizations per week is almost doubled Since July 1, it has surpassed 12,600 in the week of August 12, according to Reuters. CDC data.
“Continued surveillance is very important and this is now on the shoulders of the government,” Van Kerkhoff said. These monitoring and reporting systems should be maintained.
At this time, the WHO has designated BA.2.86 as a “mutant under surveillance (VUM)”, which previously showed early signs that it may outcompete other variants in circulation. It was a designation given only to the mutants shown. There are very few data on BA.2.86, so it does not apply to this micron subvariant. but, WHO has changed the definition of VUM to comply with BA.2.86. This designation can now also include variants that “have an unusually high number of antigenic variants, but very few sequences and/or no relative growth advantage can be estimated.” I was.
With so many mutations and so much concern about it, some have called for BA.2.86 to be marked beyond Omicron with its own Greek letter. However, according to the WHO’s current system, only variants designated as ‘Variants of Concern’ (VOC) are given Greek letters. To obtain VOC status, BA.2.86 must meet at least one relevant criterion. Changing epidemiological trends in ways that may endanger medical resources. or largely circumvent vaccine protection from severe disease.
A WHO Technical Advisory Group will conduct a risk assessment of BA.2.86 as data accumulate, from which it will determine whether a redesignation is warranted.
