Ukraine expects Russia to mobilize up to 500,000 additional soldiers in the coming months, according to a senior intelligence official.
“Russia plans to mobilize between 300,000 and 500,000 people to carry out offensive operations in southern and eastern Ukraine in the spring and summer of 2023,” Vadim Skivitsky, deputy director of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Service, said in an interview. affirmed.
“This 500,000 is in addition to the 300,000 mobilized in October 2022,” said Skibitskyi. “This proves that Putin’s Kremlin has no intention of ending this war. A Russian attack may take place in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and possibly in the Zaporizhia region. Russian forces are in the Kherson region and Crimea. This new wave of mobilization will continue for up to two months.”
Russian officials have consistently denied that another mobilization is planned. However, at Russia’s military summit in December, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu proposed to increase the military from the current 1.15 million to 1.5 million combat personnel over three years.
This was necessary “to ensure the resolution of issues related to Russia’s military security,” Shoigu said.
Skibytskyi also said that in early 2022, the Defense Intelligence Service “was aware that a full-scale invasion was to begin in early February or a little later…” preparation in.
At the time, Ukraine openly downplayed the possibility of a Russian invasion.
In an interview with Ukrainian Technology and Strategy, Skivitsky said: country’s. “
He said the defense of Mariupol had stalled 10,000 to 12,000 enemy forces that had been assigned to attack northwards to encircle Ukrainian forces defending the Donbass region. “Mariupol played the role 100 percent,” Skivitsky said.
He also said that the Russians now “have quite a problem with missiles. They used to produce less than 200 missiles a year, depending on the type. Now they produce four Iskandar missiles a month.” As for the Kh-101 missiles, depending on the inventory of imported parts, it could be 20 to 30 units.”
The Iskander is a powerful and relatively accurate cruise missile.
Western analysts also say they estimate that some Russian missile inventories are in short supply.
Skibytskyi also provided a Ukrainian analysis of Russia’s attack drone program. “As of today, they are using about 660 Shahed drones. Contracts provide him with 1,750. Delivery and preparation also take time. is preparing another batch for delivery.”
