Evaluating five-year invoices (2021-2025), Exp Realty leads the growth of volume, adding $80.46 billion with a total of $15.266 billion. The compass was closely followed by an increase of $79.04 billion, totaling $231.04 billion.
Over the past five years, from a transaction-side perspective, Exp Realty has increased the most significantly, adding 111,138 aspects to a total of 350,119. Following the compass, the 84,001 sides increased, totaling 228,785.
Gaining the Edge is a new, low-cost player.
“The top 10 movements over the past five years have been split into two camps,” Murray explained. “Half of them are flat hula or low-cost organic growth players. United, Fatong, Samsonand lokation. The other half – compass, Hannah Holdingsand Sotheby’s – Growing primarily through acquisitions. Then there is an outlier Jason Mitchell Group and Mark Spainrelies on the tactics of high volume, lead generation. They are leadgen monsters. It’s smart, they’re very good at it. ”
Two roads branch out and meet again
At the surface level, the rise in Exp Realty and Compass represents the forks in the roads of the brokerage model.
EXP has grown rapidly through a distributed, low-overhead model driven by virtual office and agent-driven adoption. Compass is heavily leaning towards a focusing strategy on mergers and acquisitions, securities acquisitions and top agents signing lucrative contracts.
“Exp is very similar Keller Williams Model,” McClelland said. It’s another model of profit share, but they share revenue and they have virtual offices, so they have crushed (operating expenses) costs. ”
Murray also cited similarities between EXP and Keller Williams.
“They imitated Keller Williams with their caps, but added revenue sharing and stock incentives,” he said. “They didn’t have an office. It kept them low above their heads. The big inflection point came when they hired five or six former top-regional Keller executives.
That strategy worked – fast.
“(exp) just took off,” Murray said. “The past few years have slowed their US growth, but it has been enough to put them in volume within the top moves.”
Meanwhile, Compass took a more aggressive approach to recruitment, targeting top producers with previous incentives and multi-year contracts.
“They adopted the M&A model that has been used in the industry for many years and refined it to acquire agents,” McClelland said. “That’s a trade-off. I’ll give you a revenue load up ahead of time, you’ll stick with me.”
Includes prominent acquisitions of Compass over the past year Christie’s International Real Estate and @PropertiesA luxurious real estate company Washington Fine Propertiesand Gulf Coast-based securities companies The latter & blum.
The compass is also the subject of rumors about its potential acquisition. Berkshire Hathaway Home ServicesHowever, it is not clear about this issue.
In the fourth quarter, Compass reported a 26% increase in revenue from the previous year, reaching $1.4 billion, with 24% trading. For the full year of 2024, Compass achieved revenue of $5.6 billion and generated operating cash flow of $122 million.
Exp Realty reported revenue of $4.6 billion for 2024, up 7% from the previous year, generating $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter. The company closed its annual trading volume of $185.2 billion, showing a 9% increase per year.
Despite the differences in business models, both Compass and Exp are running on similar premises, paying agents from top-line revenues for rapid expansion, says McClelland.
“EXP is paying top-line revenue to introduce another agent. Compass is paying top-line revenue to bring in production,” he said. “They’re pretty similar.”
Shift ground
McClelland acknowledged that the industry’s landscape is changing rapidly. National Association of Realtors Settlement of the committee lawsuit.
He has had a major impact on business models that rely on a large number of low-production agents.
“Many new hobby agents don’t have the negotiating skills to clarify the value of their committee,” McClelland said. “They’re away from the business. When that happens, they’re based on the volume. [may] There’s a problem. ”
The committee’s ruling could shake the foundations of the “cap” model, which is often bought sides, he added.
“The big change isn’t just that buyer brokerage agreements are signed,” McClelland said. “It’s the earthquake change that has left listing agents with no reason to bore the Buyer Securities Committee in advance in advance.”
Murray agreed that the industry is facing a moment of calculation.
He points to historical similarities Century 21 The explosive rise of the 1980s followed by a series of corporate ownership changes.
“They dominated through the franchise, which was a new model back then,” Murray said. “But when they sold it to a conglomerate, then to MetLife, it all started slipping.”
He sees similar risks in today’s companies that use several versions of EXP models, such as United and Fathom.
“They offer flat rates, revenue sharing. They’re competitive right now,” Murray said. “Edge Exp is gone.”
Returning to basics
In a market full of complexity, Murray and McClelland agreed to a simple approach. A true understanding of relationships, reputations, and what agents need.
“Glenn (CEO of Exp) was fantastic,” McClelland said. “He built a better Keller Williams, and the Compass, they did some great things too. There’s a validity in both models.”
But they argue that long-term survival will depend on confusion and discipline.
“A lot of the noise goes away,” McClelland said. “We’re going back to what works. Real support. Real relationships. Real production.”
Murray effectively summed it up. “The name could change, the technology could change. But in the end, it’s still about people.”
