London
CNN
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Since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the military to invade Ukraineone question has plagued European governments more than most: What would happen if Moscow cut off its gas?
The threat of cutting Russia’s gas supplies to European countries has been a trump card since many of them have for years relied on gas to heat their homes and power their factories. Putin If the war he started last February dragged on into a long winter, he could play.
Citizens of countries not in direct war with Russia may wonder why their comfort and livelihoods were sacrificed for Ukraine when the cold hit. It was believed that the country’s leaders, feeling domestic pressure, might instigate easing sanctions or brokering a peace deal on terms favorable to Moscow.
“There is a traditional Russian view that one of Russia’s greatest assets in warfare is the common winter,” explains Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at think tank Chatham House.
“In this case, Russia tried to use the winter to increase the power of another tool in the box: energy weapons. And it convinced them that aid to Ukraine wasn’t worth the strain on their wallets,” Giles added.
But that long chill isn’t over yet. Western and Central Europe are enjoying milder than expected winters. gas Consumption has taken one of Putin’s biggest bargaining chips out of his hands.
As we move further into 2023, European governments now have a window of opportunity to get their ducks in line. reduce dependence On Russian gas before another winter comes. Doing so could play an important role in maintaining a united front in the West as the war drags on.
So how long is this window and what short-term measures can you take to make the most of it?
Adam Bell, a former energy official in the UK government, says that mild winters are effectively “buying Europe every year. It can lead to shortfalls.”
But simply stockpiling gas isn’t enough, he warns. “Companies will have to switch production processes away from natural gas.”
Critics accuse European governments of focusing too much on controlling the near-term price of gas, rather than investing in long-term measures such as efficiency and renewable energy.
“There is a natural political instinct to ease prices, as they directly address household and business cost concerns. Research Center researcher Milan Elkerbout says.
“Politicians tend to think of energy efficiency as a long-term project, partly because of shortages of materials such as insulation and a shortage of skilled workers. It can contribute to big changes in the world,” adds Elkerbout.
In the medium term, Europe now has the opportunity to implement some changes in energy consumption habits that have proven politically difficult. Now that it’s clear, opposition to renewable resources such as onshore wind farms and criticism of net-zero prices has been thrown into a new light.
“Governments can do more to encourage and speed up the development of renewable energy sources,” says John Springford, deputy director of the European Center for Reform. “A big step would be to give the go-ahead to the onshore wind. It would also be prudent for the government to build storage capacity for liquid natural gas (LNG), which could be done fairly quickly and meet Russia’s gas needs. directly reduce the
Whether European nations will use this brief opportunity to strengthen their energy security is another question altogether.
“Europe’s suddenly exposed vulnerabilities have existed for years of complacency by the West,” says Giles.
“Western Europe has warned of the Russian regime’s intentions and listened to frontline nations who understand that higher energy is a price worth paying for being vulnerable to Russian pressure. This complacency left Russia with multiple open goals to kick in major Western European capitals, especially Germany, ”he adds.
It may sound silly that bombs continue to fall on Ukraine, but a return to old complacency and a failure to strengthen Europe’s energy independence is not out of the question.
International Energy Agency (IEA) said in December Global demand for coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels, reached a record high in 2022 amid the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s war. Just one year after countries agreed to phase out coal at the United Nations climate conference in Glasgow, Europe is reopening some of its recently closed coal-fired power plants. I noticed that.
While most European countries saw relatively modest increases in coal consumption, Germany saw a “significant scale” reversal, according to the IEA.
European countries have historically been reluctant to integrate energy policies and markets. The reasons for this range from blatant self-interest (why should one country profit from another’s stockpiles?) to market control (e.g. why should cheaper LNG from Spain weaken French nuclear power?). ?).
And even if there were to be any political appetite for common energy policies and markets, it would be very difficult to manage centrally, as individual countries would inevitably compete for resources and financial subsidies.
That’s what makes this current window so important. As the fighting continues, it is important to remind us that if we do not act now, we may be sleepwalking next winter. And a self-inflicted energy crisis would give Putin back powers that sheer luck and unseasonably warm weather had denied him.
