newYou can now listen to Fox News articles.
On Sunday, President-elect Donald Trump commented on the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, harshly criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin, an ardent supporter of Assad and to whom Putin granted political asylum in Russia. did.
“There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social. President Trump pointed to the fact that “600,000 Russian soldiers have been injured or killed in a war that should never have started and could last forever.” Trump said Russia is in a “weakened state right now” because of “Ukraine and a bad economy.”
This attack on President Putin is likely to be a precursor to President Trump’s Russia policy during his second term. If you thought Trump and Putin were friends, don’t be fooled. There will almost certainly be no improvement in relations between Moscow and Washington under President Trump’s watch. Here’s why:
Trump’s strategy: How Putin outsmarted four US presidents and then lost to ‘The Donald’
On June 28, 2019, then-President Trump (right) shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)
Regardless of whether President-elect Trump succeeds in resolving the nearly three-year-old devastating conflict between Russia and Ukraine as promised, despite his negotiating skills, the next It is highly unlikely that the fundamental irreconcilable differences between Washington can be resolved. . Ukraine, where Russia and the United States are currently locked in a head-to-head proxy war, is just one example of where Russia’s national interests are in direct conflict with America’s long-term bipartisan foreign policy.
Russia and Washington each want Ukraine within their spheres of influence. Russia considers Ukraine to be part of its strategic security border and therefore beyond U.S. geopolitical control. To enforce Russia’s version of the Monroe Doctrine, President Putin is waging a brutal war against Ukraine. In Moscow’s view, his goal is to exclude Ukraine from the hostile military alliance NATO. Similarly, Russia considers other former Soviet states such as Georgia and Moldova to be some of its important interests.
Former President Donald Trump (right) meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at Trump Tower on Friday, September 27, 2024 in New York City. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nickinson)
US Eurasian policy has been in place for almost a century and is highly unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. This policy has been guided by the so-called “forward defense” logic, conceptualized by Dutch-American geostrategist John Spykman in the 1930s. A balance of power realist, Spykman convinced the U.S. national security establishment that America should get involved in Eurasian affairs to improve its chances of survival. This strategy called for the creation of American strategic alliances and military bases in Eurasia to prevent the emergence of rival powers that could threaten America.
Spykman’s theory is rooted in British geographer Halford Mackinder’s theory, published in 1904, that whoever controls Eurasia (which he called the world island) commands the world. Mackinder believed that Eurasia was predetermined to play a dominant role in world politics because of its vast natural resources and location at the center of the Earth.
5 reasons why Zelenskiy’s plan to win Ukraine is a no-win gamble
Russian military personnel pose for a group photo near a U.S. military M2 Bradley combat vehicle captured by Russian forces in Ukraine, Nov. 3, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Russia. (Photo by: Artem Priakhin/SOPA Images/LightRocket, Getty Images)
Former President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski summarized this policy in his 1997 book, “The Grand Chess Board: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives.” Brzezinski echoed Mackinder and Spykman, writing that the United States “must ensure that no nation is able to expel the United States from Eurasia or significantly diminish its decisive arbitration role.” .
Russians took seriously Brzezinski’s strategic guidance: “Whoever controls Eurasia controls the world.” They concluded that Washington’s goal was to contain Russia and fragment its territory. A major Russian think tank summarized its perception of US-Russia policy as follows. “The United States will seek to weaken and dismantle the rest of the world, and first and foremost the vast expanse of Eurasia. “It’s a consensus among the elites that is being pursued by the White House, whether it exists or not.” ”
Deep-rooted mistrust between Russia and the United States dates back to the Soviet era. It is highly unlikely that Mr. Trump will overcome it. At the heart of this mistrust is the expansion of NATO.
Russia and Washington have very different views on what US Secretary of State James Baker promised Russia when he met with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990 as part of negotiations on the peaceful reunification of Germany. making an interpretation. Russians took Baker’s famous declaration that they would not go an inch east as a promise not to admit former Soviet states into their alliance, but the leaders of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) denied this claim, and some called it a “myth.”
Soldiers of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, named after the Ukrainian army’s King Danilo, fire a 2S5 “Hyacinth-S” self-propelled grenade at Russian troops on the front line near the town of Chasiv Yar during the Russian offensive in Ukraine. fire a gun. November 18, 2024, Donetsk region, Ukraine. (Oleg Petrasiuk/24th King of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Danilo Separate Mechanized Brigade Press Office/Data via Reuters)
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO recognized the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), which were once part of the Soviet Union, as well as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and other former Soviet bloc countries. to the alliance. Since 1997, a total of 13 Eastern European countries have become NATO members. As a result, Russia’s buffer zone was reduced from 1,000 miles during the Soviet era to 100 miles. Feeling deceived, the Russian government accused the United States and NATO of violating their commitments. President Putin has made it his life’s mission to restore the lost buffer against NATO.
Thirty declassified documents from the United States, Soviet Union, Germany, Britain and France, consisting of the highest level writings of contemporary Memcon and Telcon, reveal what Gorbachev perceived as NATO’s commitment not to erode Russia’s security. It is clear that he actually received the item. For example, the U.S. Embassy in Bonn told Washington that German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher had made it clear that “changes in Eastern Europe and the German unification process” would not lead to “a violation of the security interests of the Soviet Union.” I told you.
Click here to get the Opinion Newsletter
The same cable included language suggesting that NATO should preclude “territorial expansion to the east, i.e. closer to the borders of the Soviet Union.” However, the expression “came to believe” appeared to be a key phrase used throughout these documents, which contributed to the differences in interpretation. This phrase is not a legal guarantee and reflects the informal nature of the guarantee.
That’s why President Putin will almost certainly accept nothing less than formal legal guarantees from NATO that would block Ukraine’s membership as part of the peace deal that President Trump aims to broker between Russia and Ukraine. .
Despite the seemingly good relationship between the two, President Putin does not trust President Trump. President Trump also does not trust President Putin. During his first term, President Trump took several actions aimed at weakening Russia’s military strategy and economy. President Trump has sanctioned the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, created the U.S. Space Force, ordered the development of a low-yield nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile, and launched an operation in Syria that killed 300 Russian Wagner Group mercenaries. Approved. In 2017, President Putin summed up his realpolitik relationship with President Trump. “He is not my bride, and I am neither his bride nor his groom. We run the government,” Putin told reporters at an economic summit.
President-elect Donald Trump receives the “Patriot of the Year” award at Fox Nation’s Patriot Awards. (Fox Nation)
President Biden’s recent bold policy change, giving Ukraine the green light to properly attack Russia with long-range missiles supplied by the United States, is confirmation to President Putin that Washington cannot be trusted. This is why Putin recently reversed President Trump’s request, reportedly made during a telephone conversation, to Putin to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine. The Russians made two highly escalating moves. President Putin has approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons and authorizing a new experimental hypersonic missile, Oreshnik, to attack Ukraine. The Oreshnik has enough range to target all of Europe and the West Coast of the United States. Neither the US nor NATO has any defenses against it.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
President Putin, a product of Russia’s strategic culture, has a mindset of assuming the worst. The assumption of inevitable conflict, deeply rooted in Russian thinking, will always drive Moscow’s foreign policy. Trump, a talented businessman, may be able to shift U.S.-Russia relations from adversarial to transactional. However, with or without President Trump, Russia and the United States will never become friends.
Click here to read more from Rebecca Koffler
