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In 2016, businessman Jim Justice ran for governor of West Virginia as a Democrat and won. Two years later, Joe Manchin was re-elected to the Senate as a Mountain State Democrat. Now, as a Republican, Justice is on track to retake that seat, and perhaps the Senate itself.
No state more symbolizes the anachronisms of the 20th century Democratic Party than West Virginia, nor has it held onto so many old-school Democrats for so long, but that seems to be changing as new Democrats abandon their centrist roots.
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I was invited to breakfast Chick-fil-A Eight or nine men in their 20s to early 50s gather to talk mostly about theology, and a little about politics, and as the only Roman Catholic in attendance, I find myself puzzled by the intricacies of the Anabaptist faith but am struck by the fact that 25 years ago, at least half of this group would have been Democrats; 35 years ago, they would all have been Democrats.
Back then, this was a Virginia that was united in blue, emblematic of God’s West, dominated by conservative Democrats of a kind rarely seen today.
West Virginia Governor Jim Justice delivers his State of the State address in Charleston, West Virginia on January 10, 2024. Governor Justice signed the science education bill into law on Friday, March 22, 2024. Supporters say it will promote the free exchange of ideas in the classroom, but critics argue it is constitutionally vague and could allow religion to infiltrate public schools.
One of the guys I met was a new pastor at a local church who had just moved to the Eastern Panhandle about a month prior. He said a blessing over his meal in the middle of a fast food restaurant, as loud as he wanted, and it was amazing. No one thought it was weird.
The good pastor is from Mississippi, and one of his peers asked him how he felt about the Confederate battle flag being removed from the state flag in 2020. He supported the decision at the time because why would it make him angry, but then he saw how slippery that slope had become with statues of Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt being toppled, just as Donald Trump warned.
MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE – JANUARY 12: Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) speaks at a “Politics & Eggs” event at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College on January 12, 2024 in Manchester, New Hampshire. Senator Manchin has announced that he will not run for reelection in November. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
But he had more to say: “Yes, racism exists. I’ve seen it. It’s real. But it’s diminishing with every generation,” the newcomer said, sounding exactly the kind of tone the West Virginia Democrat has long embodied.
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The last time the party of Jefferson and Jackson won West Virginia in a presidential election was southerner Bill Clinton in 1996. The 2000 election was a close one.
Since then, the state won by Old Dominion’s little brother has not been a swing state but rather the state of a weird centrist senator, and according to the person who invited me, Jim Justice may keep it that way.
“He was a Democrat,” a friend said. “Do you think he could be the Republican Joe Manchin?” I replied. “Yeah, I think so,” he replied.
“Do you think you could have beaten Manchin if he had run?” I pressed.
“No, but it’s close,” he said.
West Virginia isn’t a swing state, but it borders Pennsylvania and Virginia, and the people you’ll meet here may be better than Herod the Elders at embodying the swing state spirit. It’s a matter of who gets the job done. That’s why blue crab cake country and Maryland Republican Larry Hogan are vying for the Senate seat next door.
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Clearly, moderate Mid-Atlantic voters are vital to Harris’ campaign, which is why she suddenly says, “What? No, I love fracking. I do fracking in my backyard, right next to the chili peppers Waltz can’t eat.” But her party, and its arrogance and elitism, may already be closing the door on formerly Democratic West Virginians and her fellow swing-state allies.
Are there enough suburban women to replace the godly men who once tolerated Democrats at breakfast? Probably. But West Virginia is a lost opportunity for Democrats. This is a state born of Confederate blood, giving both parties a chance. For now, Democrats don’t seem interested.
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