Last week saw a return to the success of Stewart Mandel’s Upset Special (Georgia State vs. Louisiana), but also a return to Stewart Mandel’s inability to break .500 against the spread. He hopes to be bowl eligible by the end of the season.
last week:5-6 against the spread.
season:41-46-1.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10) Kansas State Noon (Fox)
Kansas is one of those teams that is much better on the road (1-2, including a 40-14 loss at Texas) than at home (4-0, all wins by double digits). So just playing in The Booth gives the Jayhawks a chance. However, the defensive power of Kansas University, which is ranked 100th, is far behind its explosive offensive power. QB Dillion Gabriel should get some time as soon as possible.
Oklahoma 38, Kansas 30
choice: Kansas +10
South Carolina at Texas A&M (-14), noon (ESPN)
Both teams are having disappointing seasons, but the Aggies boast at least a top-20 defense in the nation. They are tied for second nationally in sacks (29) and could give Spencer Rattler a boost. On the other hand, the defense of the 115th ranked Shamcocks is terrible. This could be a chance for Aggies running back Le’Veon Moss to put up numbers.
Texas A&M 29, South Carolina 14
choice: Texas A&M -14
No. 8 Oregon (-6.5) at No. 13 Utah, 3:30 (Fox)
Don’t you love the Rice-Eccles Utes? Oregon has a definite advantage at quarterback, but Bo Nix may face his toughest opposing defense this season. Utah’s offense has taken on a new dimension with the arrival of running back/safety Sione Vaki, but the Ducks are tough against the run. Utes quarterback Bryson Barnes will need to make some plays.
Utah 33, Oregon 30
choice: Utah +6.5
BYU at No. 7 Texas (-17.5), 3:30 (ABC)
I often referred to BYU as a de facto Power 5 program while it operated independently. So maybe it’s no surprise that the 5-2 Cougars were the best of the Big 12’s four newcomer teams. However, the teams they defeated currently do not have a winning record. Even without Quinn Ewers, Texas may offer some rude humility.
Texas 34, BYU 10
choice: Texas -17.5
No. 20 Duke vs. No. 18 Louisville (-4), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Duke’s prospects will be bleak if quarterback Riley Leonard is unable to play after sustaining an ankle injury suffered last week against Florida State. The Blue Devils’ offense came to a screeching halt when redshirt freshman Henry Bellin IV had to step in. The Cardinals ended their long-awaited Idle Week at home. That’s a bad recipe for Mike Elko’s team.
Louisville 24, Duke 13
choice: Louisville -4
No. 1 Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Gators did a great job of making me look like an idiot for picking them to go 3-9. In reality, it’s 5 wins and 2 losses. Although there is still a big gap between the two programs, it will be interesting to see what the Dawgs’ offense does without essential TE Block Bowers. If they struggle, Florida could have a chance.
Georgia 27, Florida 14
choice: Florida +14.5
No. 21 Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
This one is tough. Neither team is that impressive. Both are contradictory. Kentucky gained some momentum against Georgia, but was crushed. The Vols’ defense has been strong for most of this year, but it fell apart in the second half of last week’s game against Alabama. If in doubt, choose your home team.
Kentucky 27, Tennessee 24
choice: Kentucky +3.5
No. 3 Ohio State (-14.5) Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
Wisconsin has been one of the Big Ten’s most powerful programs for decades, but even the Badgers have only beaten the Buckeyes once since 2007. And Luke Fickell’s first Wisconsin team was nowhere near the level of great Wisconsin teams of the past. It could be a disaster for Ohio State, but the path to an upset is hard to see.
Ohio 23, Wisconsin 10
choice: Wisconsin +14.5
even deeper
Can Wisconsin regain its upset magic at Camp Randall?Badgers go to Ohio State University
Colorado, No. 23 UCLA (-17), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
I highly doubt the Buffs will take a 29-0 lead in this game. UCLA has one of the nation’s top pass rush units, but it’s not ideal for CU’s formidable pass protection. UCLA’s offense had been sluggish, but it exploded last week against Stanford when veteran QB Ethan Garbers took the reins from Dante Moore.
UCLA 34, Colorado 14
choice: UCLA-17
11. Oregon State (-3.5), Arizona State, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Arizona turned out to be one of the most pleasant surprises of the season. Led by Jed Fisch, his 4-3 team can score, but it’s also vastly improved defensively. The Wildcats have faced the likes of Michael Penix Jr., Caleb Williams and Cam Ward, but have allowed just five passing TDs this season. Those will make life difficult for his DJ Uiagalelei at Oregon State University.
Arizona 27, Oregon 24
choice: Arizona +3.5
Mandel’s upset special
No. 22 Tulane (-10.5) at Rice, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
This is a big chance for Mike Bloomgren’s Owls, who are 4-3 and looking for their first win since 2014. Tulane is 6-1, but by no means on the same level as last year’s Cotton Bowl team. The Green Wave needed all four quarters to beat North Texas 3-4 last week. JT Daniels got his biggest win since leading Georgia in the 2020 Peach Bowl.
Rice 26, Tulane 24
choice: Rice +10.5
(Noah Fifita Photo: Caitlin Mulcahy/Getty Images)
