Rising sea temperatures over the past 30 years have led to an increase in cases of potentially fatal infections caused by water-borne pathogens off the US Atlantic coast, according to a study released Thursday by Scientific. is expected to increase further in the future. Open access journals for research on reports, natural sciences and other topics.
Incidence of infection from Vibrio vulnificusA pathogen that thrives in brackish waters in shallow water. “Climate Warming and Increases in Vibrio vulnificus Infections in North America,” by academic researchers from the United States, United Kingdom, and Spain.
by mid 21st By the end of this century, the pathogen is expected to become more common in major population centers, including New York City, and if carbon emissions follow a medium-to-high trajectory, the United States Atlantic Ocean will likely reach Infections can occur in all states on the shore, the report said.
The infection enters the body through a cut in the skin or by eating raw or undercooked crustaceans and can kill in as little as a day or two. About 10% of cases then require surgical removal of the infected flesh or amputation of the limb. Mortality was as high as 18%, with deaths reported 48 hours after exposure, the report said.
“Our projections show that climate change will have a major impact on the world. V. vulnificus The distribution and numbers of infections in the eastern United States are likely due to warming of coastal waters, which promotes the presence of bacteria, and rising temperatures leading to increased coastal recreation,” the study said.
Between 1988 and 2016, there were approximately 1,100 wound infections. V. vulnificus It has been reported across the United States, including 159 deaths, highlighting the “significant yet underestimated impact of this pathogen,” the study said.
Based on a relatively low emissions scenario, the number of cases per year is projected to more than double to 145 by mid-century from 61 in 2007-2018. And by the end of this century, researchers predicted more than 200 cases per year.
Climate scenarios are expressed as ‘shared socioeconomic pathways’ (SSPs) that combine trends such as economic growth, demographic change, and urbanization with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) that describe projected scenarios for carbon emissions. . By combining the two measurements, the effects of climate change can be V. vulnificus evaluated.
Low-emission, or “sustainable,” scenarios contrast with scenarios in which “reinstated nationalism and regional conflicts” undermine climate mitigation, resulting in medium- or high-carbon emissions and consequent water pollution. warming is provided.