- China’s manufacturing PMI in September was 50.2, and in August was 49.7
- China’s non-manufacturing PMI in September was 51.7 and in August was 51.0
- China’s September Composite PMI was 52.0 and August was 51.3
BEIJING, Sept 30 (Reuters) – China’s factory activity expanded in September for the first time in six months, an official survey showed on Saturday, a series of indicators suggesting the world’s second-largest economy is starting to bottom out. has further increased.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), based on a survey of major manufacturing industries, rose to 50.2 from 49.7 in September, just above the 50-point level that marks the dividing line between contraction and expansion of activity, the National Statistics Office said. This exceeded the expected score of 50.0.
The PMI, the first official statistics of September, strengthens the signs of stabilization in China’s sluggish economy after a brief burst of momentum at the beginning of the year when ultra-restrictive coronavirus measures were lifted. Ta.
Preliminary signs of improvement emerged in August, with growth in factory output and retail sales accelerating, while the decline in imports and exports narrowed, easing deflationary pressures. Industrial companies’ profits rose an unexpected 17.2% in August, reversing July’s 6.7% decline.
“The positive figures for industrial profits, along with the manufacturing PMI, suggest that the economy is gradually bottoming out,” said Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junnan International.
China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indices on service sector activity and construction, also rose to 51.7 from 51.0 in August.
The composite PMI, which includes manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, rose to 52.0 from 51.3 in September.
Short-term data that economists are watching includes consumer spending for the year’s longest holiday. Golden Week begins with the Mid-Autumn Festival on Friday, followed by the National Day until October 6th.
Rail passenger journeys reached a record 20 million in a single day on Friday, state media said on Friday, a strong start to what authorities had predicted was the “most popular Golden Week in history.”
More stable economic data will be welcomed by policymakers as they continue to grapple with the real estate sector debt crisis that has roiled global markets. Although authorities have announced a series of measures to shore up the property market, including lowering mortgage rates, the sector is still not out of the woods.
New home prices in August fell sharply for the first time in 10 months, and real estate investment declined for 18 consecutive months.
China Evergrande Group (3333.HK), the world’s most indebted real estate developer with more than $300 billion in debt, announced Thursday that its founder is being investigated for “illegal crimes.”
Last week, the Asian Development Bank lowered its forecast for China’s economic growth rate in 2023 to 4.9% from 5.0% in July, citing weakness in the real estate sector.
Analysts say further policy support will be needed to ensure China’s economy meets the government’s growth target of around 5% this year.
“China’s economy has stabilized, partly due to the easing of real estate sector policies,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
“The key question going forward is whether fiscal policy will become more supportive. I think it will, but the timing may mean a change in fiscal policy stance next year rather than this year.”
Reporting by Ryan Woo, Tina Qiao and Joe Cash.Editing: Michael Perry and William Mallard
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