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On Thursday, President Biden characterized the violation of U.S. sovereign airspace by China’s high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft as “not a significant security threat,” carrying out pre-programmed flight paths across the U.S. mainland, and the U.S. monitored the most sensitive military installations in
After an American F-22 fighter jet finally shot down the Beijing intruder, three more mysterious airborne objects entered American territory and were subsequently shot down by fighter jets. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in an even more bizarre response to what could have been an unprecedented series of incursions into the mainland in peacetime: “Authorities don’t yet know what the object is, but it’s not a threat.” Stated.
Look at the words of the Biden administration itself. Surveillance balloons are not a threat, but send in F-22 fighter jets to shoot them down. And even if you don’t know what they are, you somehow know they’re not a threat.
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On Saturday, February 4th, the reconnaissance balloon drifts over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South Carolina, with fighter jets and their contrails visible below. (Chad Fish, via AP)
As a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst who briefed Pentagon and NORAD/NORTHCOM officials on foreign aerospace threats and doctrine of space warfare, and participated in wargames simulating a US-China conflict, I spoke with President Biden and his I disagree with the security team of China’s threat to America is by far the greatest, and the spy balloon China is sending is his one hint at the many spears being sent across the Pacific.
Transition to wartime regime
On February 2, CIA Director William Burns revealed an intelligence assessment of his agency that Xi Jinping had instructed the military to prepare an offensive operation against Taiwan by 2027. The US and China are predicted to “fight in 2025.” Taiwan is the epicenter of escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing and a potential path to war.
There are multiple signposts, signs and warnings (I&W in intelligence parlance) that Beijing is moving into a wartime regime. During a recent visit to the Chinese military’s operations command center, Xi instructed the Chinese military to prepare for war. “The entire military must put all its efforts into the war, focus on the war, and build the ability to speed up and win,” Xi said.
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President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands as spectators at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, November 14, 2022. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
To bolster its combat capabilities, China is ramping up its space combat posture, doubling the number of satellites in orbit from about 250 to 499 between 2019 and 2021, according to the Defense Intelligence Agency. increase. Satellites provide critical wartime functions such as missile warning, navigation, communications, reconnaissance, and command and control. In mid-January, the Chinese Navy conducted a series of military exercises in the South China Sea that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) characterized as “realistic combat-oriented face-to-face exercises.”
Exploring U.S. Aerospace Security Vulnerabilities
The recent violation of U.S. sovereign airspace by an unmanned Chinese high-altitude reconnaissance airship indicates that the PLA has identified a clear gap in U.S. aerospace security that Beijing will undoubtedly exploit during wartime. will do. This seemingly low-tech intelligence-gathering device contained a multi-sensor payload and most likely transmitted sensitive US military data to Beijing in real-time, including high-fidelity photographs, wiretapping, and nuclear information. is expensive.
The U.S. North American Aerospace Defense Command, part of the Northern Combat Command whose primary mission is to protect the continental United States and Canada from missile and aerospace attacks, launched what the media first called spy balloons. Could not be detected. Controlled by the Chinese military, this maneuverable airship was both an intelligence gathering asset and a delivery platform, and could easily have housed a dynamic or chemi-bio payload that posed a much greater threat to Americans. .
Soldiers check fighter missiles at a PLA military airport during a training session in eastern China’s Zhejiang province in late August 2021. (Feature China/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
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The Biden administration and the Pentagon have minimized the threat by arguing that spy balloons are worth nothing because they cannot collect more information than China’s low-orbit satellites already collect. They miss the point by focusing only on the surveillance aspect, but China may have had a broader mandate for this covert operation.
First, China’s doctrine is to “blind and deaf” the US military by rendering US satellites inoperable in times of war. Beijing expects Washington to do the same with China’s space assets. Having a low-tech alternative to accomplish the mission would give China an edge and the courage to attack the US low-Earth orbit constellation.
Second, having a fleet of unmanned aerial intelligence assets could be a valuable tool for deterring or delaying U.S. intervention in the China-Taiwan conflict.
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The Biden administration was paralyzed over deciding whether to shoot down a reconnaissance balloon even after witnesses on the scene spotted the balloon. Please try to imagine. Even if the U.S. military found these assets, how many F-22s would it take to shoot them down? Can you identify what is not, prioritize targets, and neutralize this threat in a timely manner?
The disruption caused by the use of dozens of these balloons could have devastating effects, threatening commercial aviation, causing panic among Americans, and fueling chaos of all kinds. .
It’s time for President Biden and his security team to face reality. China is a much bigger threat than they are willing to admit. Instead of shooting down aerial reconnaissance planes one by one, the Pentagon and government must come up with a serious and comprehensive strategy for how to deal with America’s greatest strategic adversary.
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